[1st-mile-nm] Bandwidth - How Much is Enough?

[Steve Ross]

Great link. Haven't found the UK one, but here's one of ours 
from 2006, predicting 30 Gbps to the home by 2030.

www.broadbandproperties.com/2006issues/sep06issues/george_sep.pdf

It comes from John George at OFS.

Steven S. Ross
Editor-in-Chief
Broadband Properties
steve at broadbandproperties.com
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SKYPE: editorsteve
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Dale Carstensen wrote:
> I'm looking for a URL about a speech given in England sometime since
> last October, about how traffic at a single home will exceed all
> current backbone internet traffic by some date in the near future.
> The speaker was a manager at a US telecom company.  Maybe AT&T,
> maybe Verizon, maybe Qwest.  I guess those are the only three,
> and how long will it be before there's just one again??
> 
> I haven't found that yet, but I did find an amazing review, which
> appears to have been written around 1999 (the web page is dated
> Oct 18, 2002), about a paper written at Bell Labs in 1961 predicting
> telecom traffic demands for the year 2012.  The title is "Through a
> Glass Darkly".
> 
>  <http://www.boblucky.com/Papers/green.htm>
> 
> In addition to that entertaining digression, I'll mention that I
> think it's pretty silly to keep installing copper when fiber is
> cheaper.  And with fiber, the question is not on the order of
> kilobytes, it's on the order of gigabytes and tens of gigabytes,
> and it won't be long before it's terabytes.  Per second.
> 
> Now, I think it is also silly to ship hundreds of copies of the
> same huge file (a movie, for instance, or updates to Microsoft
> Windows or Apple Mac OS or Linux) to the same small city from a
> centralized data center several states away.  But maybe if "the
> phone company" began thinking it's in the communications carrier
> business instead of something it did decades ago.  That is, the
> advertising, billing, satellite TV, "bundling" or other marketing
> schemes and string between tin cans business seems to be what they
> think they do.
> 
> Maybe if they concentrated on being communications carriers,
> the incredible bandwidth of fiber, that wouldn't cost as much as
> the copper they're still installing, would handle the delivery of
> those duplicative huge files, and the demise of theaters and
> television could proceed, the same way cell phones have just
> about eliminated pay phones.
> 
> Or, the remnants of the Bell system can just disappear when some
> other company does what they should have done.
> 
> If I find that URL about the coming exaflood, I'll pass it along, too.
> Oh, searching for exaflood on google will yield some related reading,
> too, I'm sure.
> 
>   Mr. Dale
> 
> 
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