[1st-mile-nm] FCC approves CenturyLink, Qwest merger with conditions

Thu Mar 24 10:31:52 PDT 2011

Thanks, Peter. You're right on so many fronts.  I was not around, though, when Deutsche Telekom bid on US West - fortunately, for I've always been a fan of local ownership and local self determination.

John

From: peter baston [mailto:pete at ideapete.com]
Sent: Thursday, March 24, 2011 10:09 AM
To: John Badal
Cc: David Breecker; Richard Lowenberg; 1st-mile-nm at mailman.dcn.org
Subject: Re: [1st-mile-nm] FCC approves CenturyLink, Qwest merger with conditions

John

The most important part of your email is the last piece " since economics often play a minor role in such decisions " this is were the whole view on broadband and connectivity is wrong. ( Yes i know you mean cost to service but it goes deeper )

Ill use the Kazak example. I was sent this by a friend of mine at NOAA who are major funders in many of these initiatives as environmental data collection is a billion dollar market and accuracy and dependability of data is a major issue and that why huge investment is being made in systems like this ( yes US tax dollars )   Gotta have the big backbone and then plug in the sites by any means necessary.   To them the real economic model is right up front especially with ferengi experts writing checks and showing them how

We always talk about the speed of the system and its size but pay little attention to the return value of what it can really do and what that means in economic returns current and in the future.

You were probably present when Deutsche Telekom made a bid for US West and that was the model they were using which has now been picked up by other European Telcoms like Alcatel. Probably in your filing system its still around , go look at the return layer value and how they wanted to go about it. Sadly they have now been sunk in the US by smart devices like Iphones and Ipods , talking of which there was a great conference up here on smart radio which you would have loved, If you want a link let me know

Metcalf's law still applies especially to the ultimate $$$$$ value of what systems can do.

To understand that you have to put on your bit hat and learn what network design best practices 101, how they are designed and and how they GROW are, which I doubt many today do, certainly at the telcoms and cable companies I deal with.

You are totally correct in the middle mile and the "latest rush to dooooooo something "  but this again is politics with getting the money out there before you have developed a standard and practice of how to use the money and what the end result needs to be.  Getting a local electrical utility to commit to 30% of its value in debt to build something they do not know how to is insanity but I am sure that problem will breed a bunch of experts which I suppose is some form of job creation.

So John next time you are up on the hill ( The pajarito one ) go ask them how much they spend on environmental data collection and utilization ( and how they do it )  and what that costs them to get it right and wrong ?  Then dig deeper for other uses,  will not even mention parametric modeling but that again is huge $$$ return.

Then think about what the transmission of this and similar data is worth.

Love the Sacred Wind metaphor,

Be well

( : ( : pete

--
--------------------------------------
Pete Baston
IDEAS  "I"  Quality Assurance - Due Diligence
www.ideapete.com<http://www.ideapete.com/>
Cell: 303-579-6531
Mailto:pete at ideapete.com<mailto:pete at ideapete.com>
On Thu, Mar 24, 2011 at 9:48 AM, John Badal <jbadal at sacred-wind.com<mailto:jbadal at sacred-wind.com>> wrote:
Peter,

Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't WDM enable each strand of a fiber route to carry an OC192, which operates at a capacity of nearly 10 Gigs?  If that's the case, the backhaul capacity (which is what Kazakh's system is) of only one of our national carriers can ramp up to 1,440 Gigs.  Multiply that by the number of national and regional fiber routes commonly possessing 96 fiber strands or 144 fiber strands,  and we get a big number.  The issue really is for us, and certainly will be for the Kazakhs (except those pillaging on horseback), how much of it will be lit and driven to the neighborhood node to be made locally available.  I think we're witnessing the local telcos now making a mad rush to the node in urban areas as a pure defensive move against the Cable TV companies.
As for rural areas, the Broadband Stimulus program largely backed the middle mile and, I bet, a good chunk of that goes to rights of way payments.  Do we need fiber to every node in rural areas?  My take is no, but I'll let the policymakers make that decision since economics often play a minor role in such decisions.

John

From: 1st-mile-nm-bounces at mailman.dcn.org<mailto:1st-mile-nm-bounces at mailman.dcn.org> [mailto:1st-mile-nm-bounces at mailman.dcn.org<mailto:1st-mile-nm-bounces at mailman.dcn.org>] On Behalf Of peter baston
Sent: Wednesday, March 23, 2011 3:35 PM
To: David Breecker
Cc: Richard Lowenberg; 1st-mile-nm at mailman.dcn.org<mailto:1st-mile-nm at mailman.dcn.org>
Subject: Re: [1st-mile-nm] FCC approves CenturyLink, Qwest merger with conditions

Shucks even the Kiwis are talking 100 Gig http://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/03/17/alcatel_bids_110g_kiwi_fibre/ by the french no less and look whats happening in the fourth world

 " Valsecchi says. Elsewhere, Kazakhstan telco Kazakhtelecom recently put a 100Gbps link in the backbone network between Alma-Aty and Taldy-Kurgan."

Yikes where does that leave the USA ?

Nice one for Jason " Kazakhtelecom  is XXXXXXXX faster than our system "

( : ( : pete
On Wed, Mar 23, 2011 at 4:14 PM, peter baston <pete at ideapete.com<mailto:pete at ideapete.com>> wrote:
Its here from the " National "sic plan although its a future goal so dvide by year and political willpower

http://newamerica.net/publications/policy/broadband_speeds_in_perspective

http://www.broadband.gov/

The U.S. National Broadband Plan sets a goal of 4 Mbps downloads (1Mbps upload) by 2020, which, by comparison is a minimum of a half-decade later and often substantially slower than other countries. The concomitant goal of 100 Mbps access for 100 million households by 2020 would cover an estimated 74-76% of the population.[25]<http://newamerica.net/publications/policy/broadband_speeds_in_perspective#_ftn25> 10 years ago, the United States was a leader in broadband penetration; however, the latest OECD ranks the U.S. 15th, behind France, Sweden, Canada, and a dozen other countries.[26]<http://newamerica.net/publications/policy/broadband_speeds_in_perspective#_ftn26> As our research clearly documents, even if the U.S. achieves its current broadband speed targets by 2020, unless it substantially raises its broadband goals, the country will remain substantially behind many other countries.

Why is this a too low Junk speed,   simple speeds are measured in megabits and storage in Megabytes ( 8 bits in a byte ) so the true target for 9 years out is .5 megabyte per second down and .125 megabyte up which I am sure is what the target in the FCC and agreement plan defines although today who knows, cocombinet goal is per price fluctuaion so they wil not be giving you 100 mps / 12.5 megabytes per second at $10 a month in the future or today.

The Jetsons must be laughing their heads of and thank goodness for smart wireless and Steve Jobs

For those of you who are interested this is what we missed 10 years ago http://www.ideapete.com/leapfrog.html and why the smoke and mirrors with speeds http://www.ideapete.com/megaBS.html

( : ( : pete

--------------------------------------
Pete Baston
IDEAS  "I"  Quality Assurance - Due Diligence
www.ideapete.com<http://www.ideapete.com/>
Cell: 303-579-6531
Mailto:pete at ideapete.com<mailto:pete at ideapete.com>

On Wed, Mar 23, 2011 at 3:24 PM, David Breecker <david at breeckerassociates.com<mailto:david at breeckerassociates.com>> wrote:
Does this rely on a standard FCC definition of what constitutes "broadband"?  And would someone please remind me of what that too-low figure is?

dba | David Breecker Associates, Inc.
Santa Fe: 505-690-2335
Abiquiu:   505-685-4891
www.BreeckerAssociates.com<http://www.BreeckerAssociates.com>

On Mar 23, 2011, at 1:23 PM, Richard Lowenberg wrote:

FCC approves CenturyLink, Qwest merger with conditions

Mar 23, 2011 12:02 PM

http://broadcastengineering.com/news/fcc-approves-centurylink-qwest-merger-with-conditions-20110323/

The FCC<http://www.fcc.gov/> approved the merger March 18 of CenturyLink<http://www.centurylink.com/> and Qwest Communications International<http://www.qwest.com/>.

As a condition of the approval, the FCC imposed protections against the risk of harm to competition and ensured the merged entity will live up to its commitments to expand its network and launch a major broadband adoption program for low-income consumers, an FCC statement said.

Based on the companies' agreement to certain conditions, the FCC found that the potential public interest benefits of the merger are likely to outweigh the potential harms.

Among the conditions for approval were steps to improve broadband adoption for low-income households. Specifically, the conditions include requiring the launch of a major broadband adoption program focused on connecting the millions of low-income consumers in the combined company's 37-state territory.

The company also must offer qualifying households broadband starting at less than $10 per month and a computer for less than $150 and keep the window open for five years for qualifying consumers to sign up. And, the company must make a significant annual commitment to marketing, outreach and digital literacy training and include detailed reporting on outcomes and an independent analysis of the program's effectiveness.

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Richard Lowenberg
P. O. Box 8001,  Santa Fe, NM  87504
505-989-9110 off.; 505-603-5200 cell
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