[1st-mile-nm] IEEE: 5G is in Danger of Being Oversold

[Steve Ross]

See also http://www.bbcmag.com/2018mags/Jan_Feb/BBC_Jan18_BandwidthHawk.pdf

Oddly enough, outside densely populated areas, carriers will have to share
microcells -- and that makes their lease value greater than their
construction value. That means sharing the fiber backhaul as well. So
national carriers should devolve into small regional carriers having
monopolies on the access but not on the content. That's the worldwide ideal.

In dense areas and on interstates, driverless cars  will be communicating
with each other through microcells and exchanging data among themselves at
about a Gbps. Peak use (morning rush hour) is TWICE the bits transferred as
today's residential video-driven peak use in the evening.

On lightly traveled roads, driverless cars could communicate car-to-car
rather than through a microcell, or use 4G. There's an experiment on that
going on in San Diego now,  using 4G and a "bursty" version of wifi, to get
a better idea of real-world dynamics. AT&T is handling it.

BTW, in general, gigabit networks are easier to manage than slower nets.
Requested data is in the network for much less time, overall latency is
lower, the next generation of PON equipment is amenable to SDA and more
amenable to SDN, more of the "action" happens at the network edge
(improving reliability) and on and on.



Steve Ross
Editor-at-Large, Broadband Communities Magazine (www.bbcmag.com)
201-456-5933 mobile
707-WOW-SSR3 (707-969-7773) Google Voice
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On Thu, Mar 1, 2018 at 10:48 AM, John Badal <JBadal at sacred-wind.com> wrote:

> If White Space refers to unused but available capacity, then that term
> applies to the distance between one’s ears as folks dream of making a
> business case out of FTTH in Jal or 5G in McKinley County. With a dash of
> Fairy Dust, I guess anything can fly.
>
>
>
> John
>
>
>
> *From:* nicholas.espeset at gmail.com [mailto:nicholas.espeset at gmail.com] *On
> Behalf Of *Nicholas Espeset
> *Sent:* Wednesday, February 28, 2018 11:19 PM
> *To:* John Badal <JBadal at sacred-wind.com>
> *Cc:* masha at bbcmag.com; Doug Orr <doug.orr at gmail.com>; rl at 1st-mile.org;
> 1st-Mile-NM <1st-mile-nm at mailman.dcn.org>
>
> *Subject:* Re: [1st-mile-nm] IEEE: 5G is in Danger of Being Oversold
>
>
>
> So, will this compete with the incredibly awesome power of White Space
> radios?
>
>
>
> Are those still a thing with people who can't do the math?
>
>
>
> On Wed, Feb 28, 2018 at 5:48 PM, John Badal <JBadal at sacred-wind.com>
> wrote:
>
> 5G has the same sexy appeal to the uniformed as fiber to the home.  Rural
> communities are crying for both, afraid they’d fall deeper into the digital
> divide, but unaware that the vast majority of consumers could never use
> gigabit speeds outside of recreating in the home Star Trek-like virtual
> reality holodecks.    What makes much more sense to me is for Albuquerque
> to build 20-lane highways and 10-lane boulevards throughout the city to
> eliminate any congestion during rush hours, along with robotic car removal
> systems to dispense with cars damaged in an accident.
>
>
>
> John
>
>
>
> *From:* 1st-mile-nm [mailto:1st-mile-nm-bounces at mailman.dcn.org] *On
> Behalf Of *Masha Zager
> *Sent:* Wednesday, February 28, 2018 5:30 PM
> *To:* 'Doug Orr' <doug.orr at gmail.com>; rl at 1st-mile.org
> *Cc:* '1st-Mile-NM' <1st-mile-nm at mailman.dcn.org>
>
>
> *Subject:* Re: [1st-mile-nm] IEEE: 5G is in Danger of Being Oversold
>
>
>
> It’s not. See this: http://www.bbcmag.com/2017mags/Mar_Apr/BBC_Mar17_
> 5GNotAnswer.pdf
>
>
>
>
>
>
> *Masha Zager *Editor-in-Chief, Broadband Communities
> masha at bbcmag.com
> 518-943-0374 <(518)%20943-0374>
> www.bbcmag.com
> www.twitter.com/bbcmag
>
>
>
> *From:* 1st-mile-nm [mailto:1st-mile-nm-bounces at mailman.dcn.org
> <1st-mile-nm-bounces at mailman.dcn.org>] *On Behalf Of *Doug Orr
> *Sent:* Wednesday, February 28, 2018 7:16 PM
> *To:* rl at 1st-mile.org
> *Cc:* 1st-Mile-NM
> *Subject:* Re: [1st-mile-nm] IEEE: 5G is in Danger of Being Oversold
>
>
>
> I'm unclear as to why 5g fixed is going to be cheaper to deploy than
> fiber. If the state charges $250/antenna... that buys a lot of hardwired
> installer time. And the antennas need backhaul, presumably, so lighting up
> a neighborhood in anticipation of new customer uptake... that seems a lot
> like upgrading infrastructure that would be needed if the idea is to offer
> faster aggregate speeds.
>
>
>
> What's the model here?
>
>
>
> Does anyone know of real world benchmarks for 5G applications (e.g.,
> netflix)?
>
>
>
>   Doug
>
>
>
> On Wed, Feb 28, 2018 at 1:47 PM Richard Lowenberg <rl at 1st-mile.org> wrote:
>
> Following on recent postings.     RL
>
> -------
>
> Commercial service is years away, but even then, 5G won’t fulfill all of
> its promises
>
> https://spectrum.ieee.org/telecom/internet/5g-is-in-
> danger-of-being-oversold
>
> By Stacey Higginbotham
>
> Just like graphene or Elon Musk’s startups, 5G has become a technology
> savior. Proponents tout the poorly defined wireless technology as the
> path to virtual reality, telemedicine, and self-⁠driving cars.
>
> But 5G is not a technology—it’s a buzzword unleashed by marketing
> departments. As early as 2012, Broadcom was using it to sell Wi-Fi. In
> reality, 5G is a term that telecommunications investors and executives
> sling around as the solution to high infrastructure costs, the need for
> more bandwidth, and a desire to boost margins.
>
> The unifying component behind 5G is faster wireless broadband service. A
> more stringent—and practical—definition is the use of high-frequency
> millimeter waves (in addition to the microwaves that 4G LTE relies on
> today) to deliver over-the-air broadband to phones or homes.
>
> If you’re talking about phones, 5G is still years away. And new services
> aren’t really on the menu. Just listen to the heads of several
> telecommunications companies, who have begun to tamp down investors’
> expectations around what 5G can deliver.
>
> (snip)
>
>
> ---------------------------------------------------------------
> Richard Lowenberg, Executive Director
> 1st-Mile Institute     505-603-5200 <(505)%20603-5200>
> Box 8001, Santa Fe, NM 87504,
> rl at 1st-mile.org     www.1st-mile.org
> ---------------------------------------------------------------
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> --
>
>
> Nicholas Espeset
> Espeset Associates, LLC
> 8 Melado Drive
> Santa Fe, New Mexico
> 87508-2254
> USA
>
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