[1st-mile-nm] IEEE: 5G is in Danger of Being Oversold

Thu Mar 1 14:41:59 PST 2018

BTW, one person's cross-subsidy is another's avoiding stranded costs. Rural
counties are losing on average more than 1/4% of their population a year. A
coop or tier3 LEC sees survival as a better alternative. I have shown that
a quarter to half of all rural job loss is due to lack of broadband access.
It is by far the BIGGEST source of rural job loss.

I really have a lot of respect and admiration for any broadband deployers,
including the national carriers. But when they can't make a business case
for serving an area they should $%^&% get out of the way of others who
think they might be able to. Instead they buy politicians.

Steve Ross
Editor-at-Large, Broadband Communities Magazine (www.bbcmag.com)
201-456-5933 mobile
707-WOW-SSR3 (707-969-7773) Google Voice
editorsteve (Facebook, LinkedIn)
editorsteve1 (Twitter)
steve at bbcmag.com
editorsteve at gmail.com

On Thu, Mar 1, 2018 at 5:34 PM, Steve Ross <editorsteve at gmail.com> wrote:

> Chris is absolutely right, but making it happen is not as easy. Few
> electric coops have been willing to take the risk -- and Chris and I and
> others do a lot of missionary work. More than half of all new MDUs are not
> FTTH even though fiber is CHEAPER in that case.
>
> We can generally show that fiber can work at about 8 premises per mile
> taking the service... even less if pole attachment rights are not held
> hostage. But we don't know how revenue will flow from driverless vehicles
> to network deployers yet, and Washington is not paying any attention.
>
>
>
> Steve Ross
> Editor-at-Large, Broadband Communities Magazine (www.bbcmag.com)
> 201-456-5933 <(201)%20456-5933> mobile
> 707-WOW-SSR3 (707-969-7773 <(707)%20969-7773>) Google Voice
> editorsteve (Facebook, LinkedIn)
> editorsteve1 (Twitter)
> steve at bbcmag.com
> editorsteve at gmail.com
>
>
> On Thu, Mar 1, 2018 at 4:50 PM, Christopher Mitchell <christopher at ilsr.org
> > wrote:
>
>> Any place that has electricity, especially those served by co-ops could
>> get fiber ultimately. It may take a well-designed grant program, but it can
>> be done far more efficiently than any of the universal service programs in
>> operation today.
>>
>> Google decided to focus on dominating AI and driverless cars and such
>> rather than deployment. There is no evidence that they were losing money,
>> rather anyone that understands how such businesses make decisions should be
>> aware that while there are fiber models that are profitable, they may not
>> offer the return that some in Google were expecting. That's fine. the small
>> ISPs I see building fiber steadily year after year are profitable. They
>> aren't going to buy NFL stadium sponsorships, but they are providing a
>> service that is desperately desired and they are making a good return.
>> Google will focus on dominating the future of AI and driverless cars and
>> who knows what. They have a different calculus.
>>
>> The vast majority of North Dakota has FTTH. I believe it is the 4th most
>> sparsely populated state in the union. But it is very easy to simply ignore
>> the evidence and pretend that it just can't be done.  We have documented
>> where rural fiber is available, and it is far more than most realize.
>> https://muninetworks.org/content/rural-cooperatives-page
>>
>>
>> Christopher Mitchell
>> Director, Community Broadband Networks
>> Institute for Local Self-Reliance
>>
>> MuniNetworks.org <http://www.muninetworks.org/>
>> @communitynets
>> 612-545-5185 <(612)%20545-5185>
>>
>> On Thu, Mar 1, 2018 at 7:36 AM, John Badal <JBadal at sacred-wind.com>
>> wrote:
>>
>>> Business case?  Even the well heeled Google has rethought its FTTH plans
>>> in urban areas far more densely populated than NM’s rural areas.  The
>>> sizzle got ahead of the steak.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> John
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> *From:* Christopher Mitchell [mailto:christopher at ilsr.org]
>>> *Sent:* Thursday, March 1, 2018 8:32 AM
>>> *To:* John Badal <JBadal at sacred-wind.com>
>>> *Cc:* masha at bbcmag.com; Doug Orr <doug.orr at gmail.com>; rl at 1st-mile.org;
>>> 1st-Mile-NM <1st-mile-nm at mailman.dcn.org>
>>>
>>> *Subject:* Re: [1st-mile-nm] IEEE: 5G is in Danger of Being Oversold
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> The point of a gig is not to use all of it anymore than the point of a
>>> highway is to experiment with the maximum number of cars you can put on it.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> The point of a gig is abundance - sure 452 Mbps would probably do that
>>> too, but a gig resonates and is a standard.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> It would be difficult for me to use all of the electricity that can flow
>>> into my house - but we overprovision certain kinds of infrastructure when
>>> that can unlock additional value.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> And finally, if we assume that communities will still need high quality
>>> Internet access in 30 years, everyone I talk to that does both fiber and
>>> wireless says that while fiber is more expensive on the front end, the much
>>> lower operating and future upgrade costs ultimately make it MORE cost
>>> effective than wireless over a period of decades.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> There are many legitimate reasons for people in rural areas to "cry" for
>>> better connectivity even if they have the same number of gigabit
>>> applications as we do cars that are 5 lanes wide.
>>>
>>>
>>> Christopher Mitchell
>>> Director, Community Broadband Networks
>>> Institute for Local Self-Reliance
>>>
>>>
>>> MuniNetworks.org <http://www.muninetworks.org/>
>>>
>>> @communitynets
>>>
>>> 612-545-5185 <(612)%20545-5185>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> On Wed, Feb 28, 2018 at 4:48 PM, John Badal <JBadal at sacred-wind.com>
>>> wrote:
>>>
>>> 5G has the same sexy appeal to the uniformed as fiber to the home.
>>> Rural communities are crying for both, afraid they’d fall deeper into the
>>> digital divide, but unaware that the vast majority of consumers could never
>>> use gigabit speeds outside of recreating in the home Star Trek-like virtual
>>> reality holodecks.    What makes much more sense to me is for Albuquerque
>>> to build 20-lane highways and 10-lane boulevards throughout the city to
>>> eliminate any congestion during rush hours, along with robotic car removal
>>> systems to dispense with cars damaged in an accident.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> John
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> *From:* 1st-mile-nm [mailto:1st-mile-nm-bounces at mailman.dcn.org] *On
>>> Behalf Of *Masha Zager
>>> *Sent:* Wednesday, February 28, 2018 5:30 PM
>>> *To:* 'Doug Orr' <doug.orr at gmail.com>; rl at 1st-mile.org
>>> *Cc:* '1st-Mile-NM' <1st-mile-nm at mailman.dcn.org>
>>>
>>>
>>> *Subject:* Re: [1st-mile-nm] IEEE: 5G is in Danger of Being Oversold
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> It’s not. See this: http://www.bbcmag.com/2017mags
>>> /Mar_Apr/BBC_Mar17_5GNotAnswer.pdf
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> *Masha Zager *Editor-in-Chief, Broadband Communities
>>> masha at bbcmag.com
>>> 518-943-0374 <(518)%20943-0374>
>>> www.bbcmag.com
>>> www.twitter.com/bbcmag
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> *From:* 1st-mile-nm [mailto:1st-mile-nm-bounces at mailman.dcn.org
>>> <1st-mile-nm-bounces at mailman.dcn.org>] *On Behalf Of *Doug Orr
>>> *Sent:* Wednesday, February 28, 2018 7:16 PM
>>> *To:* rl at 1st-mile.org
>>> *Cc:* 1st-Mile-NM
>>> *Subject:* Re: [1st-mile-nm] IEEE: 5G is in Danger of Being Oversold
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> I'm unclear as to why 5g fixed is going to be cheaper to deploy than
>>> fiber. If the state charges $250/antenna... that buys a lot of hardwired
>>> installer time. And the antennas need backhaul, presumably, so lighting up
>>> a neighborhood in anticipation of new customer uptake... that seems a lot
>>> like upgrading infrastructure that would be needed if the idea is to offer
>>> faster aggregate speeds.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> What's the model here?
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Does anyone know of real world benchmarks for 5G applications (e.g.,
>>> netflix)?
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>   Doug
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> On Wed, Feb 28, 2018 at 1:47 PM Richard Lowenberg <rl at 1st-mile.org>
>>> wrote:
>>>
>>> Following on recent postings.     RL
>>>
>>> -------
>>>
>>> Commercial service is years away, but even then, 5G won’t fulfill all of
>>> its promises
>>>
>>> https://spectrum.ieee.org/telecom/internet/5g-is-in-danger-o
>>> f-being-oversold
>>>
>>> By Stacey Higginbotham
>>>
>>> Just like graphene or Elon Musk’s startups, 5G has become a technology
>>> savior. Proponents tout the poorly defined wireless technology as the
>>> path to virtual reality, telemedicine, and self-⁠driving cars.
>>>
>>> But 5G is not a technology—it’s a buzzword unleashed by marketing
>>> departments. As early as 2012, Broadcom was using it to sell Wi-Fi. In
>>> reality, 5G is a term that telecommunications investors and executives
>>> sling around as the solution to high infrastructure costs, the need for
>>> more bandwidth, and a desire to boost margins.
>>>
>>> The unifying component behind 5G is faster wireless broadband service. A
>>> more stringent—and practical—definition is the use of high-frequency
>>> millimeter waves (in addition to the microwaves that 4G LTE relies on
>>> today) to deliver over-the-air broadband to phones or homes.
>>>
>>> If you’re talking about phones, 5G is still years away. And new services
>>> aren’t really on the menu. Just listen to the heads of several
>>> telecommunications companies, who have begun to tamp down investors’
>>> expectations around what 5G can deliver.
>>>
>>> (snip)
>>>
>>>
>>> ---------------------------------------------------------------
>>> Richard Lowenberg, Executive Director
>>> 1st-Mile Institute     505-603-5200 <(505)%20603-5200>
>>> Box 8001, Santa Fe, NM 87504,
>>> rl at 1st-mile.org     www.1st-mile.org
>>> ---------------------------------------------------------------
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>>
>>
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