[1st-mile-nm] IEEE: 5G is in Danger of Being Oversold

[Doug Orr]

Sorry, if I contributed to that idea, Eve. I wasn't at all talking about
rural communities. That's the driver overall for network usage, not
something rural communities are looking for per se.

(I can find you stats on broadband usage--ita mostly Netflix and YouTube,
in the large...)

On Sat, Mar 3, 2018, 7:12 PM Eva Artschwager <cirrus.ed.consulting at gmail.com>
wrote:

>
> I have to take issue with the characterization of rural communities as
> using broadband primarily for entertainment and the toggled claim that, for
> this reason, they do need high speed service.  I would argue that “mostly
> entertainment” use develops because infrastructure deployment without
> training is not an effective driver of beneficial uses (nor of adoption).
> All the research and literature on digital inclusion supports this view
>  I’m not an expert on the details of the technologies, but in my work in
> rural NM communities that access without skills (and affordability) isn’t
> very effective for generating economic or intellectual applications.
>
> Deployment needs to be packaged with community engagement programs that
> train people to utilize technology for improving education, employment, and
> health opportunities. Without this, a larger market for better bandwidth is
> not developed nor does the infrastructure create the larger economic
> development that can bring greater growth for both providers and
> communities (which will in turn require higher speeds).  In deeply rural
> regions, traditional options for training don’t exist. Yet  residents are
> still in need of job skills, students still need to complete homework
> assignments, and community members still need to access healthcare  and
> services.
>
> I understand that initial returns on investment in rural communities are
> low, but letting these communities fail creates other economic challenges
> that can damage overall regional patterns of stability and growth.
>
> Eva
>
>
> Eva Artschwager
>
> Broadband Outreach and
> Digital Inclusion
> 1-505-660-3434
> cirrus.ed.consulting at gmail.com
> Sent from my iPhone
>
> On Mar 2, 2018, at 10:46 AM, Jane Coffin <coffin at isoc.org> wrote:
>
> Hi All –
>
>
>
> May I play devil’s advocate.  I am not from NM (but love it there).  I
> come from a rural coastal town in Maine.  Local uptake can often start out
> with entertainment, and shift once the network is better and/or the
> community realizes the value-add.  Note that we see this all over the
> world, and that entertainment content has been driving network
> infrastructure development in many parts of Sub-Saharan Africa, South East
> Asia, LAC, etc.  I take your point on subsidization, but think there is a
> good reason for public network infrastructure dev.  Why not subsidize the
> preliminary FTTH deployments with a long-range plan for community pay-back
> or just see it as worthwhile socio-economic dev?  We build and maintain
> roads at the State and local level…
>
> 2/ With you.  We helped a project in rural South Africa purchase a mast
> (cost was $2,600.00).  They were quoted a monthly rental of $2,600.00 on an
> existing mast.  With the mast purchase, they expanded coverage and were
> able to shift to a hybrid not-for-profit/profit WISP.
>
>
>
> Best,
>
> Jane
>
>
>
> Internet Society | www.internetsociety.org
>
> Skype:  janercoffin
>
> Mobile/WhatsApp:  +1.202.247.8429
>
> *From: *1st-mile-nm <1st-mile-nm-bounces at mailman.dcn.org> on behalf of
> John Badal <JBadal at sacred-wind.com>
> *Date: *Friday, March 2, 2018 at 12:33 PM
> *To: *Steve Ross <editorsteve at gmail.com>, Christopher Mitchell <
> christopher at ilsr.org>
> *Cc: *Richard Lowenberg <rl at 1st-mile.org>, 1st-Mile-NM <
> 1st-mile-nm at mailman.dcn.org>, "masha at bbcmag.com" <masha at bbcmag.com>
> *Subject: *Re: [1st-mile-nm] IEEE: 5G is in Danger of Being Oversold
>
>
>
> Steve & Christopher,
>
>
>
> This has been a good discussion.  I agree that anyone daring or committed
> enough to provide broadband in rural areas deserves praise.  My primary
> concern about FTTH in high cost areas is actually twofold: 1) the added
> investment of new FTTH networks, especially using public grant money, is a
> wasteful use of public funds in light of the fact that the vast majority of
> bandwidth is being used for entertainment, not for academic or job
> enhancing information.  A business case for unsubsidized FTTH systems in
> rural areas is hard to find.  And 2) where the owner of the only utility
> poles in town decides to provide broadband services in competition with
> those that are attached to its poles, abuse of monopoly power is not only
> possible, but is actually in practice. I would love to see more
> partnerships – private and public/private – for the purpose of expanding
> rural broadband.  What we’ve experienced instead is an arrogant abuse of
> power.
>
>
>
> John
>
>
>
> *From:* Steve Ross [mailto:editorsteve at gmail.com <editorsteve at gmail.com>]
> *Sent:* Thursday, March 1, 2018 3:42 PM
> *To:* Christopher Mitchell <christopher at ilsr.org>
> *Cc:* John Badal <JBadal at sacred-wind.com>; 1st-Mile-NM <
> 1st-mile-nm at mailman.dcn.org>; rl at 1st-mile.org; masha at bbcmag.com
> *Subject:* Re: [1st-mile-nm] IEEE: 5G is in Danger of Being Oversold
>
>
>
> BTW, one person's cross-subsidy is another's avoiding stranded costs.
> Rural counties are losing on average more than 1/4% of their population a
> year. A coop or tier3 LEC sees survival as a better alternative. I have
> shown that a quarter to half of all rural job loss is due to lack of
> broadband access. It is by far the BIGGEST source of rural job loss.
>
>
>
> I really have a lot of respect and admiration for any broadband deployers,
> including the national carriers. But when they can't make a business case
> for serving an area they should $%^&% get out of the way of others who
> think they might be able to. Instead they buy politicians.
>
>
>
>
> Steve Ross
> Editor-at-Large, Broadband Communities Magazine (www.bbcmag.com)
> 201-456-5933 mobile
> 707-WOW-SSR3 (707-969-7773) Google Voice
> editorsteve (Facebook, LinkedIn)
> editorsteve1 (Twitter)
> steve at bbcmag.com
> editorsteve at gmail.com
>
>
>
> On Thu, Mar 1, 2018 at 5:34 PM, Steve Ross <editorsteve at gmail.com> wrote:
>
> Chris is absolutely right, but making it happen is not as easy. Few
> electric coops have been willing to take the risk -- and Chris and I and
> others do a lot of missionary work. More than half of all new MDUs are not
> FTTH even though fiber is CHEAPER in that case.
>
>
>
> We can generally show that fiber can work at about 8 premises per mile
> taking the service... even less if pole attachment rights are not held
> hostage. But we don't know how revenue will flow from driverless vehicles
> to network deployers yet, and Washington is not paying any attention.
>
>
>
>
> Steve Ross
> Editor-at-Large, Broadband Communities Magazine (www.bbcmag.com)
> 201-456-5933 <(201)%20456-5933> mobile
> 707-WOW-SSR3 (707-969-7773 <(707)%20969-7773>) Google Voice
> editorsteve (Facebook, LinkedIn)
> editorsteve1 (Twitter)
> steve at bbcmag.com
> editorsteve at gmail.com
>
>
>
> On Thu, Mar 1, 2018 at 4:50 PM, Christopher Mitchell <christopher at ilsr.org>
> wrote:
>
> Any place that has electricity, especially those served by co-ops could
> get fiber ultimately. It may take a well-designed grant program, but it can
> be done far more efficiently than any of the universal service programs in
> operation today.
>
>
>
> Google decided to focus on dominating AI and driverless cars and such
> rather than deployment. There is no evidence that they were losing money,
> rather anyone that understands how such businesses make decisions should be
> aware that while there are fiber models that are profitable, they may not
> offer the return that some in Google were expecting. That's fine. the small
> ISPs I see building fiber steadily year after year are profitable. They
> aren't going to buy NFL stadium sponsorships, but they are providing a
> service that is desperately desired and they are making a good return.
> Google will focus on dominating the future of AI and driverless cars and
> who knows what. They have a different calculus.
>
>
>
> The vast majority of North Dakota has FTTH. I believe it is the 4th most
> sparsely populated state in the union. But it is very easy to simply ignore
> the evidence and pretend that it just can't be done.  We have documented
> where rural fiber is available, and it is far more than most realize.
>
> https://muninetworks.org/content/rural-cooperatives-page
>
>
>
>
> Christopher Mitchell
> Director, Community Broadband Networks
> Institute for Local Self-Reliance
>
>
> MuniNetworks.org <http://www.muninetworks.org/>
>
> @communitynets
>
> 612-545-5185 <(612)%20545-5185>
>
>
>
> On Thu, Mar 1, 2018 at 7:36 AM, John Badal <JBadal at sacred-wind.com> wrote:
>
> Business case?  Even the well heeled Google has rethought its FTTH plans
> in urban areas far more densely populated than NM’s rural areas.  The
> sizzle got ahead of the steak.
>
>
>
> John
>
>
>
> *From:* Christopher Mitchell [mailto:christopher at ilsr.org]
> *Sent:* Thursday, March 1, 2018 8:32 AM
> *To:* John Badal <JBadal at sacred-wind.com>
> *Cc:* masha at bbcmag.com; Doug Orr <doug.orr at gmail.com>; rl at 1st-mile.org;
> 1st-Mile-NM <1st-mile-nm at mailman.dcn.org>
>
>
> *Subject:* Re: [1st-mile-nm] IEEE: 5G is in Danger of Being Oversold
>
>
>
> The point of a gig is not to use all of it anymore than the point of a
> highway is to experiment with the maximum number of cars you can put on it.
>
>
>
> The point of a gig is abundance - sure 452 Mbps would probably do that
> too, but a gig resonates and is a standard.
>
>
>
> It would be difficult for me to use all of the electricity that can flow
> into my house - but we overprovision certain kinds of infrastructure when
> that can unlock additional value.
>
>
>
> And finally, if we assume that communities will still need high quality
> Internet access in 30 years, everyone I talk to that does both fiber and
> wireless says that while fiber is more expensive on the front end, the much
> lower operating and future upgrade costs ultimately make it MORE cost
> effective than wireless over a period of decades.
>
>
>
> There are many legitimate reasons for people in rural areas to "cry" for
> better connectivity even if they have the same number of gigabit
> applications as we do cars that are 5 lanes wide.
>
>
> Christopher Mitchell
> Director, Community Broadband Networks
> Institute for Local Self-Reliance
>
>
> MuniNetworks.org <http://www.muninetworks.org/>
>
> @communitynets
>
> 612-545-5185 <(612)%20545-5185>
>
>
>
> On Wed, Feb 28, 2018 at 4:48 PM, John Badal <JBadal at sacred-wind.com>
> wrote:
>
> 5G has the same sexy appeal to the uniformed as fiber to the home.  Rural
> communities are crying for both, afraid they’d fall deeper into the digital
> divide, but unaware that the vast majority of consumers could never use
> gigabit speeds outside of recreating in the home Star Trek-like virtual
> reality holodecks.    What makes much more sense to me is for Albuquerque
> to build 20-lane highways and 10-lane boulevards throughout the city to
> eliminate any congestion during rush hours, along with robotic car removal
> systems to dispense with cars damaged in an accident.
>
>
>
> John
>
>
>
> *From:* 1st-mile-nm [mailto:1st-mile-nm-bounces at mailman.dcn.org] *On
> Behalf Of *Masha Zager
> *Sent:* Wednesday, February 28, 2018 5:30 PM
> *To:* 'Doug Orr' <doug.orr at gmail.com>; rl at 1st-mile.org
> *Cc:* '1st-Mile-NM' <1st-mile-nm at mailman.dcn.org>
>
>
> *Subject:* Re: [1st-mile-nm] IEEE: 5G is in Danger of Being Oversold
>
>
>
> It’s not. See this:
> http://www.bbcmag.com/2017mags/Mar_Apr/BBC_Mar17_5GNotAnswer.pdf
>
>
>
>
>
>
> *Masha Zager*Editor-in-Chief, Broadband Communities
> masha at bbcmag.com
> 518-943-0374 <(518)%20943-0374>
> www.bbcmag.com
> www.twitter.com/bbcmag
>
>
>
> *From:* 1st-mile-nm [mailto:1st-mile-nm-bounces at mailman.dcn.org
> <1st-mile-nm-bounces at mailman.dcn.org>] *On Behalf Of *Doug Orr
> *Sent:* Wednesday, February 28, 2018 7:16 PM
> *To:* rl at 1st-mile.org
> *Cc:* 1st-Mile-NM
> *Subject:* Re: [1st-mile-nm] IEEE: 5G is in Danger of Being Oversold
>
>
>
> I'm unclear as to why 5g fixed is going to be cheaper to deploy than
> fiber. If the state charges $250/antenna... that buys a lot of hardwired
> installer time. And the antennas need backhaul, presumably, so lighting up
> a neighborhood in anticipation of new customer uptake... that seems a lot
> like upgrading infrastructure that would be needed if the idea is to offer
> faster aggregate speeds.
>
>
>
> What's the model here?
>
>
>
> Does anyone know of real world benchmarks for 5G applications (e.g.,
> netflix)?
>
>
>
>   Doug
>
>
>
> On Wed, Feb 28, 2018 at 1:47 PM Richard Lowenberg <rl at 1st-mile.org> wrote:
>
> Following on recent postings.     RL
>
> -------
>
> Commercial service is years away, but even then, 5G won’t fulfill all of
> its promises
>
>
> https://spectrum.ieee.org/telecom/internet/5g-is-in-danger-of-being-oversold
>
> By Stacey Higginbotham
>
> Just like graphene or Elon Musk’s startups, 5G has become a technology
> savior. Proponents tout the poorly defined wireless technology as the
> path to virtual reality, telemedicine, and self-⁠driving cars.
>
> But 5G is not a technology—it’s a buzzword unleashed by marketing
> departments. As early as 2012, Broadcom was using it to sell Wi-Fi. In
> reality, 5G is a term that telecommunications investors and executives
> sling around as the solution to high infrastructure costs, the need for
> more bandwidth, and a desire to boost margins.
>
> The unifying component behind 5G is faster wireless broadband service. A
> more stringent—and practical—definition is the use of high-frequency
> millimeter waves (in addition to the microwaves that 4G LTE relies on
> today) to deliver over-the-air broadband to phones or homes.
>
> If you’re talking about phones, 5G is still years away. And new services
> aren’t really on the menu. Just listen to the heads of several
> telecommunications companies, who have begun to tamp down investors’
> expectations around what 5G can deliver.
>
> (snip)
>
>
> ---------------------------------------------------------------
> Richard Lowenberg, Executive Director
> 1st-Mile Institute     505-603-5200 <(505)%20603-5200>
> Box 8001, Santa Fe, NM 87504,
> rl at 1st-mile.org     www.1st-mile.org
> ---------------------------------------------------------------
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