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<p class=centered1><font size=1 color="#666666" face=Arial><span lang=EN
style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:#666666'><a
href="http://www.technorati.com/blogs/www.app-rising.com" title=Technorati><font
color="#c82127"><span style='color:#C82127;text-decoration:none'><img border=0
width=98 height=157 id="_x0000_i1026" src="cid:image002.jpg@01C982E6.14536B30"
alt="Geoff Daily"></span></font></a><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:9.0pt'><font size=1 color="#666666"
face=Arial><span lang=EN style='font-size:9.0pt;color:#666666'>App-Rising.com <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:9.0pt'><font size=1 color="#666666"
face=Arial><span lang=EN style='font-size:9.0pt;color:#666666'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:9.0pt'><b><font size=3 color="#666666"
face=Arial><span lang=EN style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#666666;font-weight:
bold'>By Geoff Daily<o:p></o:p></span></font></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:12.0pt;margin-right:0in;
margin-bottom:3.0pt;margin-left:0in'><font size=3 color="#6e92bd" face=Verdana><span
lang=EN style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:#6E92BD'>January 30,
2009 8:31 AM<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<h1><b><font size=6 color="#666666" face=Verdana><span lang=EN
style='font-size:24.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:#666666'>What Broadband
Competition Means In A 100Mbps Nation<o:p></o:p></span></font></b></h1>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:9.0pt'><font size=3 color="#666666"
face=Verdana><span lang=EN style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Verdana;
color:#666666'>"Competition" is a key buzzword in telecom policy.
Existing providers think there's plenty, while many public interest groups
think we need more. But getting in the way of effective policymaking is that
the truth lies somewhere in between.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:9.0pt'><font size=3 color="#666666"
face=Verdana><span lang=EN style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Verdana;
color:#666666'>If you only consider the broadband speeds of today then in some
areas the marketplace can look pretty competitive. Between cable, DSL, possibly
fiber, and a variety of wireless technologies, consumers do often have multiple
choices for 1Mbps+ service.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:9.0pt'><font size=3 color="#666666"
face=Verdana><span lang=EN style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Verdana;
color:#666666'>And as new wireless technologies are deployed the possibility of
a competitive 5Mbps marketplace isn't out of reach over the next few years.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:9.0pt'><font size=3 color="#666666"
face=Verdana><span lang=EN style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Verdana;
color:#666666'>But let's look forward to 2015. That's the year that Senator
Rockefeller and others have set out as the goal for achieving a 100Mbps Nation.
What will competition look like then?<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:9.0pt'><font size=3 color="#666666"
face=Verdana><span lang=EN style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Verdana;
color:#666666'>First off, DSL and BPL are out of the picture. BPL in particular
may find more targeted uses than delivering generic connectivity, but neither
of these technologies are able to deliver 100Mbps, and assuming 100Mbps is
universally available DSL is likely to go the way of the dinosaur.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:9.0pt'><font size=3 color="#666666"
face=Verdana><span lang=EN style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Verdana;
color:#666666'>Secondly, while wireless 4G technology promises speeds at
100Mbps, there's no guarantee these networks will be universally available in
the <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">US</st1:place></st1:country-region>,
their claims of 100Mbps refer to the capacity of each tower not how much each
user will get, and a number of factors can contribute to lowering that number
further, like rain and fog. No other existing wireless technology can reach
100Mbps speeds besides point-to-point systems that don't offer the advantages
of mobility.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:9.0pt'><font size=3 color="#666666"
face=Verdana><span lang=EN style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Verdana;
color:#666666'>So what are we left with? DOCSIS 3.0-enabled cable and full
fiber networks. That's it. <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:9.0pt'><font size=3 color="#666666"
face=Verdana><span lang=EN style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Verdana;
color:#666666'>Assuming consumers will need and demand reliable 100Mbps speeds
by 2015, that means the most competition we can hope for is between cable and
fiber.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:9.0pt'><font size=3 color="#666666"
face=Verdana><span lang=EN style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Verdana;
color:#666666'>Taking that a step further, the only chance we'll have any
broadband competition at 100Mbps is if we have a fiber pipe to every home,
otherwise we'll be left with a cable monopoly, which is less reliable with
fiber.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:9.0pt'><font size=3 color="#666666"
face=Verdana><span lang=EN style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Verdana;
color:#666666'>This doesn't mean wireless goes away, just that as overall
demand for bandwidth outstrips the capacity of wireless it will become
increasingly clear that it doesn't compete with wireline, it's complementary to
it. Though within the wireless world there's likely to be competition between
companies and technologies for quite some time.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:9.0pt'><font size=3 color="#666666"
face=Verdana><span lang=EN style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Verdana;
color:#666666'>What this all means is that contrary to industry opinion,
without someone deploying fiber we either won't have any competition or we
won't be able to achieve a 100Mbps Nation. But contrary to public interest
opinion, the best competition we can hope for is a duopoly in a 100Mbps Nation.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:9.0pt'><font size=3 color="#666666"
face=Verdana><span lang=EN style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Verdana;
color:#666666'>Of course there's always a chance a new technology will come
about that will enable 100Mbps competition either over wireless or copper. But
not only does it need to be invented it will have to be deployed, which will be
expensive and take a lot of time. Because of this we can't afford to wait
around for something to show up that may never arrive.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:9.0pt'><font size=3 color="#666666"
face=Verdana><span lang=EN style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Verdana;
color:#666666'>Instead a pragmatic national broadband strategy must acknowledge
the truth about competition in a 100Mbps Nation, and make one of two choices:<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:9.0pt'><font size=3 color="#666666"
face=Verdana><span lang=EN style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Verdana;
color:#666666'>- Specifically support the deployment of both DOCSIS 3.0 and
fiber in the hope of preserving competition between technologies.<br>
- Or focus on establishing competition between services on the same strand of
fiber.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:9.0pt'><font size=3 color="#666666"
face=Verdana><span lang=EN style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Verdana;
color:#666666'>This second option is important to understand and consider as
with fiber everywhere it would be relatively easy to enable a world where any
number of service providers could compete over the same infrastructure. In
fact, our only hope for insuring competition beyond a duopoly in a 100Mbps
Nation is if we pursue this model.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:9.0pt'><font size=3 color="#666666"
face=Verdana><span lang=EN style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Verdana;
color:#666666'>Looking further ahead there will come a time when we'll need a
1Gbps or even 10Gbps Nation and beyond, the outlook for competition between
last-mile access technologies looks increasingly bleak. <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:9.0pt'><font size=3 color="#666666"
face=Verdana><span lang=EN style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Verdana;
color:#666666'>At some point in the not-too-distant future demand for bandwidth
will outstrip the supply that copper cable networks can offer. The total
capacity of a cable plant today is 5Gbps if you took out TV. But fiber has no
real limitation. While cable's testing 300Mbps service in the labs today,
fiber's being tested at 6Tbps, or 20,000 times higher than cable.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:9.0pt'><font size=3 color="#666666"
face=Verdana><span lang=EN style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Verdana;
color:#666666'>And the odds of any other technology coming along that can keep
up with fiber are essentially zero as fiber transmits data at the speed of
light. So this will eventually lead us into fiber being a natural monopoly.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:9.0pt'><font size=3 color="#666666"
face=Verdana><span lang=EN style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Verdana;
color:#666666'>The only way we can prevent this is by either getting multiple
fiber pipes to every house or encouraging competition between services on the
same pipe. But given the high cost of deploying fiber and its ability to
accommodate any number of service providers, the former of these approaches
doesn't appear to be the most pragmatic relative to concentrating investment on
establishing the latter.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:9.0pt'><font size=3 color="#666666"
face=Verdana><span lang=EN style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Verdana;
color:#666666'>But the most important takeaway from this post isn't necessarily
that we need to be moving full-steam ahead to a One Pipe, Multi-Service World,
which may take decades to fully realize, but instead that we must acknowledge
the shifting dynamics of broadband competition that will be taking place over
the next few years.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:9.0pt'><font size=3 color="#666666"
face=Verdana><span lang=EN style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Verdana;
color:#666666'>We can't afford to continue taking a "all broadband is
created equal" approach and assume that all broadband will be roughly
equivalent for all time. If we do then we risk not even having the competition
of a cable/fiber duopoly.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:9.0pt'><font size=3 color="#666666"
face=Verdana><span lang=EN style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Verdana;
color:#666666'>And this isn't a discussion about some time in the distant
future, we're talking about less than a decade. Policymakers need to understand
that the broadband they're subsidizing today will be in place for at least a
decade. So while these may sound like way out there issues, the decisions being
made today must take into consideration where the market's going tomorrow
otherwise we'll hamstring our country's ability to continue evolving its
digital economy in the 21st century.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=entry-footer1><span class=post-footers><font size=3 color="#6e92bd"
face=Verdana><span lang=EN style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Verdana'>Posted
by Geoff Daily on January 30, 2009 8</span></font></span><font size=3
color=black face=Verdana><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Verdana;
color:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
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