Then its interesting to look at the basis of how DT arrived at the conclusion that US West would be a good fit and how they would make money where no one else saw it. Regarding the local connection (pun ) the project moto was <span id="result_box" class="short_text" lang="de"><span title="Click for alternate translations" class="hps">American</span> <span title="Click for alternate translations" class="hps">Einfallsreichtum und</span> <span title="Click for alternate translations" class="hps">deutscher Präzision which basically means </span></span>American ingenuity and German Precision and they meant it and naturally AIGP T shirts are still around. They also figured with regulatory hurdles they faced in their other markets it was a top growth priority, little did they understand the local pols<br>
<br>What was so different about the business model, well the understanding of a node value for one thing<br><br>The model layout classified operational nodes in a network of a - b - c with a = Value x 5 b = Value x 3 and c = Value x 1<br>
<br>Value was the economic return of the type of servicers the node used to the customer of the node.<br><br>Now here is where it gets interesting , Metcalf's law ML ( <span class="mContent"><i>the network value grows exponentially as the network accumulates more users. </i>) </span>whose inventor Bob M developed the Ethernet and its protocols is often attributed to device compatibility in groupnets but the true engineering data behind ML was node value exponential value and how Ethernet mutipoint networking did it better. <br>
<br>Most telecoms companies ( and Cable ) utilize today from their basic design a backbone , hub and spoke design ( HS ) for short which is very similar to the Token ring development of early IBM networks which Ethernet in the end outperformed and drove to extinction ( Except in the UN and IAEA which should say something ) . What DT found is that true ML also applies to the value of the services the node is using and that type of value has a distinct relationship to the expansion value and that value is far higher with true Ethernet ( 5 squared ) . Also the creation of a basic type (a) node is approx 1000 times less that the service value and any additional node that the type ( a ) breeds diminishes by a further factor of 5<br>
<br>ie: Node Type ( a ) grow 5 times faster than Node type ( c ) and the value of the services grows and expands accordingly.<br><br>Its interesting to note who understands this model very well today , Google and Apple.<br>
<br>I wouldn't be to worried about where cable ends up as they just had different cash cows ( Movies ) to support expansion where as most telcoms had dial tone which is now a dying species. Cable does not understand network design or best practices and I can tell you from interaction they barely grasp the true meaning of functional efficient management with IPV4 and the un-managed tunnels in IPV6 will be way beyond their grasp. Simple logic is that cash cows make a company inherently lazy, nothing wrong with that but !<br>
<br>Most of our conversation at all levels today is about the basic right to type ( c) connection speed or less and I doubt ( chime in please telcos / cables if I am wrong ) that most companies in this industry cannot define and understand the true value of Node Type (a) ( b ) ( c) . FYI a standard Voip / Video / IP user is a type (c) customer not a type ( a ) Goverment should understand that type (a) nodes provide 5 times the total economic return of lesser nodes and that again increase exponentially. <br>
<br>DTs model was all about understanding and developing the node types , and converting users up the scale accordingly.<br><br>To understand types you have to understand the service value not only to the node user but the business and services that that node deals with.<br>
<br>ie, environmental risk and insurance risk profile analysis using parametric design and interaction is a trillion dollar business poorly served, there are many many more. ( we are working on a project Nimrod for a major re-insurer with some phenomenal potential ) <br>
<br>At a recent conference in Boulder another fascinating topic arose ( This was from worldwide participation all the top telcos etc ) in that the conclusion was that most large telcos and cable cos had missed the boat by not providing services that the customer wanted and as a result a whole new generation of devices had sprouted up allowing the customer to carry his complete service device anywhere and to any connection he / she wanted. The topic was smart radio but what they meant was smart device period. url here if you want to dig further - <a href="http://www.its.bldrdoc.gov/isart/art10/slides_and_videos10/">http://www.its.bldrdoc.gov/isart/art10/slides_and_videos10/</a> Another interesting fact came outa that conference is that of total worldwide spectrum the average usage is around 2% of capacity at peak.<br>
<br>The devices that are blowing the windows of most connectivity plans are of course from Apple with the Ipad and Iphone and Goggle with Android devices and it layered services. Go look at what it forced ATT to do with true network expansion ( both fiber and wireless ) and who now controls the industry and service model. Its also worth noting that the upper limits of the speed and service types are as yet unknown and you will find that at every tech conference no mater how sophisticated the layout of the services installed, demand is always two to three times ahead and that at any cost. <br>
<br>I think this can be attributed to Steve Jobs when he asked his team how do we create type ( a ) users really fast and they replied " Give them affordable type ( a) service capable devices and like the famous star-trek responses the boss said " make it so " and they did , the nimble team at Goggle are following much the same path<br>
<br>Lots more here but for those of you who want to follow the DT story more <a href="http://www.ideapete.com/leapfrog.html">http://www.ideapete.com/leapfrog.html</a> ( forgive the Patrick Henry pun I could not resist ) and if anyone at Qwest has the full DT - US West merger plan please post it on line, some great stuff in it.<br>
<br>Declaration statement : I was involved with the AIGP project at many levels mostly with regard to systems engineering QA due diligence.<br><br>( : ( : pete<br><br><br><br><br><div class="gmail_quote">On Thu, Mar 24, 2011 at 11:31 AM, John Badal <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:jbadal@sacred-wind.com">jbadal@sacred-wind.com</a>></span> wrote:<br>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin: 0pt 0pt 0pt 0.8ex; border-left: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding-left: 1ex;">
<div link="blue" vlink="purple" lang="EN-US">
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 11pt; color: rgb(31, 73, 125);">Thanks, Peter. You’re right on so many fronts. I was not
around, though, when Deutsche Telekom bid on US West – fortunately, for I’ve always
been a fan of local ownership and local self determination.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 11pt; color: rgb(31, 73, 125);"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 11pt; color: rgb(31, 73, 125);">John </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 11pt; color: rgb(31, 73, 125);"> </span></p>
<div style="border-width: 1pt medium medium; border-style: solid none none; border-color: rgb(181, 196, 223) -moz-use-text-color -moz-use-text-color; padding: 3pt 0in 0in;">
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 10pt;">From:</span></b><span style="font-size: 10pt;"> peter baston
[mailto:<a href="mailto:pete@ideapete.com" target="_blank">pete@ideapete.com</a>] <br>
<b>Sent:</b> Thursday, March 24, 2011 10:09 AM<br>
<b>To:</b> John Badal<br>
<b>Cc:</b> David Breecker; Richard Lowenberg; <a href="mailto:1st-mile-nm@mailman.dcn.org" target="_blank">1st-mile-nm@mailman.dcn.org</a><div><div></div><div class="h5"><br>
<b>Subject:</b> Re: [1st-mile-nm] FCC approves CenturyLink, Qwest merger with
conditions</div></div></span></p>
</div><div><div></div><div class="h5">
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 12pt;">John <br>
<br>
The most important part of your email is the last piece " <span style="font-size: 11pt; color: rgb(31, 73, 125);">since economics often play a minor role
in such decisions "</span> this is were the whole view on broadband and
connectivity is wrong. ( Yes i know you mean cost to service but it goes deeper
)<br>
<br>
Ill use the Kazak example. I was sent this by a friend of mine at NOAA who are
major funders in many of these initiatives as environmental data collection is
a billion dollar market and accuracy and dependability of data is a major issue
and that why huge investment is being made in systems like this ( yes US tax
dollars ) Gotta have the big backbone and then plug in the sites by
any means necessary. To them the real economic model is right up
front especially with ferengi experts writing checks and showing them how<br>
<br>
We always talk about the speed of the system and its size but pay little
attention to the return value of what it can really do and what that means in
economic returns current and in the future.<br>
<br>
You were probably present when <i>Deutsche Telekom</i> made a bid for US West
and that was the model they were using which has now been picked up by other
European Telcoms like Alcatel. Probably in your filing system its still around
, go look at the return layer value and how they wanted to go about it. Sadly
they have now been sunk in the US by smart devices like Iphones and Ipods ,
talking of which there was a great conference up here on smart radio which you
would have loved, If you want a link let me know<br>
<br>
Metcalf's law still applies especially to the ultimate $$$$$ value of what
systems can do.<br>
<br>
To understand that you have to put on your bit hat and learn what network
design best practices 101, how they are designed and and how they GROW are,
which I doubt many today do, certainly at the telcoms and cable companies I
deal with.<br>
<br>
You are totally correct in the middle mile and the "latest rush to
dooooooo something " but this again is politics with getting the
money out there before you have developed a standard and practice of how to use
the money and what the end result needs to be. Getting a local electrical
utility to commit to 30% of its value in debt to build something they do not
know how to is insanity but I am sure that problem will breed a bunch of
experts which I suppose is some form of job creation.<br>
<br>
So John next time you are up on the hill ( The pajarito one ) go ask them how
much they spend on environmental data collection and utilization ( and how they
do it ) and what that costs them to get it right and wrong ? Then
dig deeper for other uses, will not even mention parametric modeling but
that again is huge $$$ return.<br>
<br>
Then think about what the transmission of this and similar data is worth.<br>
<br>
Love the Sacred Wind metaphor,<br>
<br>
Be well<br>
<br>
( : ( : pete<br>
<br>
-- <br>
--------------------------------------<br>
Pete Baston<br>
IDEAS "I" Quality Assurance - Due Diligence <br>
<a href="http://www.ideapete.com/" target="_blank">www.ideapete.com</a><br>
Cell: 303-579-6531<br>
Mailto:<a href="mailto:pete@ideapete.com" target="_blank">pete@ideapete.com</a></p>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">On Thu, Mar 24, 2011 at 9:48 AM, John Badal <<a href="mailto:jbadal@sacred-wind.com" target="_blank">jbadal@sacred-wind.com</a>> wrote:</p>
<div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 11pt; color: rgb(31, 73, 125);">Peter,</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 11pt; color: rgb(31, 73, 125);"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 11pt; color: rgb(31, 73, 125);">Correct me if I’m wrong, but doesn’t WDM
enable each strand of a fiber route to carry an OC192, which operates at a
capacity of nearly 10 Gigs? If that’s the case, the backhaul capacity
(which is what Kazakh’s system is) of only one of our national carriers can
ramp up to 1,440 Gigs. Multiply that by the number of national and
regional fiber routes commonly possessing 96 fiber strands or 144 fiber
strands, and we get a big number. The issue really is for us, and
certainly will be for the Kazakhs (except those pillaging on horseback), how
much of it will be lit and driven to the neighborhood node to be made locally
available. I think we’re witnessing the local telcos now making a mad
rush to the node in urban areas as a pure defensive move against the Cable TV
companies. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 11pt; color: rgb(31, 73, 125);">As for rural areas, the Broadband
Stimulus program largely backed the middle mile and, I bet, a good chunk of
that goes to rights of way payments. Do we need fiber to every node in
rural areas? My take is no, but I’ll let the policymakers make that
decision since economics often play a minor role in such decisions. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 11pt; color: rgb(31, 73, 125);"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 11pt; color: rgb(31, 73, 125);">John</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 11pt; color: rgb(31, 73, 125);"> </span></p>
<div style="border-width: 1pt medium medium; border-style: solid none none; padding: 3pt 0in 0in; border-color: -moz-use-text-color;">
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 10pt;">From:</span></b><span style="font-size: 10pt;"> <a href="mailto:1st-mile-nm-bounces@mailman.dcn.org" target="_blank">1st-mile-nm-bounces@mailman.dcn.org</a>
[mailto:<a href="mailto:1st-mile-nm-bounces@mailman.dcn.org" target="_blank">1st-mile-nm-bounces@mailman.dcn.org</a>]
<b>On Behalf Of </b>peter baston<br>
<b>Sent:</b> Wednesday, March 23, 2011 3:35 PM<br>
<b>To:</b> David Breecker<br>
<b>Cc:</b> Richard Lowenberg; <a href="mailto:1st-mile-nm@mailman.dcn.org" target="_blank">1st-mile-nm@mailman.dcn.org</a><br>
<b>Subject:</b> Re: [1st-mile-nm] FCC approves CenturyLink, Qwest merger with
conditions</span></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 12pt;">Shucks
even the Kiwis are talking 100 Gig <a href="http://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/03/17/alcatel_bids_110g_kiwi_fibre/" target="_blank">http://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/03/17/alcatel_bids_110g_kiwi_fibre/</a>
by the french no less and look whats happening in the fourth world<br>
<br>
" Valsecchi says. Elsewhere, Kazakhstan telco Kazakhtelecom recently
put a 100Gbps link in the backbone network between Alma-Aty and
Taldy-Kurgan." <br>
<br>
Yikes where does that leave the USA ?<br>
<br>
Nice one for Jason " Kazakhtelecom is XXXXXXXX faster than our
system "<br>
<br>
( : ( : pete</p>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">On
Wed, Mar 23, 2011 at 4:14 PM, peter baston <<a href="mailto:pete@ideapete.com" target="_blank">pete@ideapete.com</a>>
wrote:</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Its
here from the " National "sic plan although its a future goal so
dvide by year and political willpower<br>
<br>
<a href="http://newamerica.net/publications/policy/broadband_speeds_in_perspective" target="_blank">http://newamerica.net/publications/policy/broadband_speeds_in_perspective</a><br>
<br>
<a href="http://www.broadband.gov/" target="_blank">http://www.broadband.gov/</a><br>
<br>
<i>The U.S. National Broadband Plan sets a goal of <b><span style="color: red;">4
Mbps downloads (1Mbps upload) by 2020</span></b>, which, by comparison is a
minimum of a half-decade later and often substantially slower than other
countries. The concomitant goal of 100 Mbps access for 100 million households
by 2020 would cover an estimated 74-76% of the population.<a href="http://newamerica.net/publications/policy/broadband_speeds_in_perspective#_ftn25" title="" target="_blank">[25]</a> 10 years ago, the United States was a
leader in broadband penetration; however, the latest OECD ranks the U.S. 15<sup>th</sup>,
behind France, Sweden, Canada, and a dozen other countries.<a name="12ee8edb7a3a74dc_12ee88f3fa995786_12ee4c8309547b34__ftnre"></a><a href="http://newamerica.net/publications/policy/broadband_speeds_in_perspective#_ftn26" title="" target="_blank">[26]</a> As our research clearly documents, even if
the U.S. achieves its current broadband speed targets by 2020, unless it
substantially raises its broadband goals, the country will remain substantially
behind many other countries. </i><br>
<br>
Why is this a too low Junk speed, simple speeds are measured in megabits
and storage in Megabytes ( 8 bits in a byte ) so the true target for 9 years
out is .5 megabyte per second down and .125 megabyte up which I am sure is what
the target in the FCC and agreement plan defines although today who knows,
cocombinet goal is per price fluctuaion so they wil not be giving you 100 mps /
12.5 megabytes per second at $10 a month in the future or today.<br>
<br>
The Jetsons must be laughing their heads of and thank goodness for smart
wireless and Steve Jobs<br>
<br>
For those of you who are interested this is what we missed 10 years ago <a href="http://www.ideapete.com/leapfrog.html" target="_blank">http://www.ideapete.com/leapfrog.html</a>
and why the smoke and mirrors with speeds <a href="http://www.ideapete.com/megaBS.html" target="_blank">http://www.ideapete.com/megaBS.html</a></p>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 12pt;"><br>
<br>
( : ( : pete<br>
<br>
--------------------------------------<br>
Pete Baston<br>
IDEAS "I" Quality Assurance - Due Diligence <br>
<a href="http://www.ideapete.com/" target="_blank">www.ideapete.com</a><br>
Cell: 303-579-6531<br>
Mailto:<a href="mailto:pete@ideapete.com" target="_blank">pete@ideapete.com</a><br>
<br>
</p>
</div>
<div>
<div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">On
Wed, Mar 23, 2011 at 3:24 PM, David Breecker <<a href="mailto:david@breeckerassociates.com" target="_blank">david@breeckerassociates.com</a>>
wrote:</p>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">Does
this rely on a standard FCC definition of what constitutes
"broadband"? And would someone please remind me of what that
too-low figure is?</p>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 9pt; color: black;">dba | David Breecker Associates, Inc.</span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 9pt; color: black;">Santa Fe: 505-690-2335</span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 9pt; color: black;">Abiquiu: 505-685-4891</span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 9pt; color: black;"><a href="http://www.BreeckerAssociates.com" target="_blank">www.BreeckerAssociates.com</a></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 9pt; color: black;"> </span></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">On
Mar 23, 2011, at 1:23 PM, Richard Lowenberg wrote:</p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 12pt;"> </p>
<div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">FCC approves CenturyLink, Qwest merger with conditions</span></b></p>
</div>
<p>Mar 23, 2011 12:02 PM </p>
<p><a href="http://broadcastengineering.com/news/fcc-approves-centurylink-qwest-merger-with-conditions-20110323/" target="_blank">http://broadcastengineering.com/news/fcc-approves-centurylink-qwest-merger-with-conditions-20110323/</a> </p>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">The
<a href="http://www.fcc.gov/" target="_blank">FCC</a> approved the merger March
18 of <a href="http://www.centurylink.com/" target="_blank">CenturyLink</a> and
<a href="http://www.qwest.com/" target="_blank">Qwest Communications
International</a>.</p>
</div>
<p>As a condition of the approval, the FCC imposed protections against the risk
of harm to competition and ensured the merged entity will live up to its
commitments to expand its network and launch a major broadband adoption program
for low-income consumers, an FCC statement said.</p>
<p>Based on the companies’ agreement to certain conditions, the FCC found that
the potential public interest benefits of the merger are likely to outweigh the
potential harms. </p>
<p>Among the conditions for approval were steps to improve broadband adoption
for low-income households. Specifically, the conditions include requiring the
launch of a major broadband adoption program focused on connecting the millions
of low-income consumers in the combined company’s 37-state territory.</p>
<p>The company also must offer qualifying households broadband starting at less
than $10 per month and a computer for less than $150 and keep the window open
for five years for qualifying consumers to sign up. And, the company must make
a significant annual commitment to marketing, outreach and digital literacy
training and include detailed reporting on outcomes and an independent analysis
of the program’s effectiveness.</p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 9pt;">------------------------------------------------------------</span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 9pt;">Richard Lowenberg<br>
P. O. Box 8001, Santa Fe, NM 87504<br>
505-989-9110 off.; 505-603-5200 cell</span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 9pt;">------------------------------------------------------------</span></p>
</div>
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