[env-trinity] Fw: Reclamation Announces Preliminary 2008 Central Valley Project Water Supply...........

[Tom Stokely]

Reclamation Announces Preliminary 2008 Central Valley Project Water Supply...........I thought this would be of interest to all of you.  Please note the differences in allocations for South-Of-Delta water contract allocations between a 50% exceedance forecast and a 90% exceedance forecast and/or with Delta Smelt actions.  There is quite a difference between the two forecasts.

Tom Stokely
----- Original Message ----- 
From: Theresa Castaneda 
To: tstokely at trinityalps.net 
Sent: Friday, January 25, 2008 10:07 AM
Subject: Reclamation Announces Preliminary 2008 Central Valley Project Water Supply...........


Reclamation
Mid-Pacific Region
Sacramento, CA
MP-08-010

Media Contact:  Jeffrey S. McCracken, 916-978-5100, jmccracken at mp.usbr.gov

For Release On:  January 25, 2008

Reclamation Announces Preliminary 2008 Central Valley Project Water Supply Outlook
The Bureau of Reclamation today announced the preliminary Water Year 2008 outlook for available supplies from the Federal Central Valley Project (CVP).  Reclamation prepared two forecasts:  a conservative forecast with a 90-percent chance of having runoff greater than forecasted (90-percent probability of exceedence) and a median forecast with a      50-percent chance of having runoff greater than forecasted (50-percent probability of exceedence).  In the 90-percent exceedence forecast, the water year inflow into Shasta Reservoir is about 3.4 million acre-feet.  The Shasta Reservoir inflow is a criteria for imposing shortages to settlement contractors and refuges.  This preliminary announcement of the available water supply outlook is based on January 1, 2008, water runoff information prepared by the California Department of Water Resources and does not take into account the strong winter storms experienced earlier this month.

Reclamation traditionally expresses the monthly outlook as a percentage (see summary table) of the contract total for each of the contract categories.  Allocations are also compared to the recent historic 5-year average of the final forecasts.

      Mid-Pacific Region
      Preliminary Water Year 2008 Supply Forecast
      January 25, 2008
     
      Probability of Exceedence Forecasts 
      and Extent of Fishery Actions **
     Percent of Historical Average 
      Sacramento Valley Index & Year Type
     North of Delta Allocation
     South of Delta Allocation
     
      Ag
     M&I*
     R
     WR
     Ag
     M&I*
     R
     WR
     
      50% and/or few Delta smelt protective actions
     73%
      Dry 
     100%
     100%
     100%
     100%
     55%
      to
      65%
     80%
      to
      90%
     100%
     100%
     
      90% and/or numerous Delta smelt protective actions
     54%
      Critical
     25%
     75%
     100%
     100%
     25%
     75%
     100%
     100%
     
      Recent Historic Average
      (5-Year Average Allocation)
     100%
     100%
     100%
     100%
     80%
     98%
     100%
     100%
     
      Ag = Agriculture  M&I = Municipal and Industrial  R = Refuges  WR = Water Rights    *M&I supply is based on historical deliveries.  
      ** Reclamation is implementing interim court-ordered measures this year to provide additional protection for Delta smelt.  The actual actions will vary depending on a real-time assessment of Delta conditions and the location and maturity of the Delta smelt.  The extent that these actions will impact water supply available for allocation can vary, and this preliminary project water supply outlook reflects the uncertainty associated with operations to implement the new protective measures
     


The Friant Division deliveries for Water Year 2008 are projected to be 400,000 acre-feet, or 32 percent of 1.25 million acre-feet, which is the Recent Historic Average (5-Year Average Allocation).  The preliminary allocation for the Friant Division Contractors will be 50 percent Class 1 water and 0 percent Class 2 water.  The projected Friant Division delivery of 400,000 acre-feet is based on the California Department of Water Resources' 90 percent, January 1, 2008, forecast.    As of January 22, 2008, precipitation in the San Joaquin River Basin was 11.27 inches for the water year compared to 9.42 inches this time last year.

In the 90-percent and 50-percent exceedence forecasts, the current Interim Plan of Operations for New Melones Reservoir, which is used as a guide, suggests that little or no project water would be available for the CVP Eastside Division contractors (Stanislaus River).  However, Reclamation believes some project water is available for delivery, and Reclamation is reviewing various operational scenarios to evaluate project storage, projected inflows, and degrees of risk management to protect all project use.

The official 2008 CVP water allocation will be made on or about Friday, February 15, 2008.  Throughout the precipitation season, updated information will be provided as conditions warrant.  To receive the latest forecast on CVP operations, please contact Mr. Paul Fujitani at 916-979-2197.  In the coming months, additional information will be posted on the Mid-Pacific Region's Website at http://www.usbr.gov/mp/.

###

Reclamation is the largest wholesale water supplier and the second largest producer of hydroelectric power in the United States, with operations and facilities in the 17 western states.  Its facilities also provide substantial flood control, recreation, and fish and wildlife benefits.  Visit our website at http://www.usbr.gov.




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