[env-trinity] Meaningless early forecast

Mon Nov 3 08:58:45 PST 2008

DWR's early forecast is essentially meaningless, as I blogged  Friday.
But the Chronicle did run a front page story. 
http://blogs.edf.org/waterfront/ <http://blogs.edf.org/waterfront/>  

	State prepared to slash water deliveries 
	Matthew Yi, Chronicle Sacramento Bureau
<mailto:myi at sfchronicle.com>  
	Friday, October 31, 2008 
	(10-31) 04:00 PDT Sacramento -- 
	The state could cut as much as 85 percent of the water it
delivers to local suppliers, the second-lowest allocation estimate in
modern California history, officials said Thursday. 

	The water allocation estimate is the first for 2009 by the state
Department of Water Resources, which plans to update its figures each
month through spring. Water delivery could be increased if the Golden
State's two-year drought ends with a wet winter in the coming months. 

	The decision could have an impact on agencies all over
California that receive some of their supply from the state. Those
agencies serve 25 million Californians and 750,000 acres of farmland. In
the Bay Area, five water agencies would be affected.

	While the estimate paints a grim picture that could force local
water agencies to ration or farmers to let their fields sit idle, it's
close to a worst-case scenario, said Lester Snow, director of the state
water agency.

	"It's really a hope-for-the-best, prepare-for-the-worst
(scenario)," he said in a conference call with reporters. 
	The lowest water allocation estimate dates back to 1993 at the
end of the state's last severe drought. The Department of Water
Resources initially estimated it would deliver just 10 percent of the
contracted water to local water districts, but a wet winter followed,
and the state ended up providing 100 percent.

	But the state faces new challenges beyond just a possible lack
of rain and snow this time around, Snow said. 
	One is a recent federal court ruling that limits the pumping of
water out of the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, a move to protect the
endangered smelt.

	The other is population growth, which is putting more pressure
on the state's water supplies in the midst of the drought, Snow said.

	Water supplies for agencies such as the San Francisco Public
Utilities Commission and East Bay Municipal Utility District that don't
rely on the state for water won't be affected the state allocation.

	The five Bay Area agencies that receive water from the state are
the Napa County Flood Control and Water Conservation District, Solano
County Water Agency, Alameda County Water District, Alameda County Flood
Control and Water Conservation District Zone 7 and Santa Clara Valley
Water District.

	The agencies said that while the low allocation is discouraging,
they already had made contingency plans this summer. 
	"We actually thought the state would come in at 10 percent,"
said Paul Piraino, general manager of Alameda County Water District,
which provides water to Fremont, Newark and Union City.

	Earlier this year, the district decided to augment its
groundwater reserves by moving 10,000 acre-feet of water from its
underground reserves in Kern County and an additional 12,000 acre-feet
from the San Luis Reservoir.

	"It's sort of like putting some money in the bank early ... for
the not-so-rainy day," Piraino said. 
	The Alameda County Flood Control District also is benefiting
from large groundwater storage, said Boni Brewer, the district's
spokeswoman.

	Her agency has socked away about 90,000 acre-feet of water in
its local groundwater basin, which should be enough for its 200,000
customers in Pleasanton, Dublin, Livermore and parts of San Ramon, even
if drought conditions continue next year, she said.

	Local water agency officials say they also have diversified
their sources of water since the last major drought of the late 1980s
and early 1990s.

	David Okita, general manager of Solano County Water Agency, said
about only 25 percent of his agency's water is drawn from the state. The
agency also takes water from the nearby Lake Berryessa and from local
runoff.

	Still, local water officials say they are keeping their fingers
crossed that the coming winter will be a wet one and the state will have
more water to give.

	Despite such contingency plans, if the water picture doesn't
change, agencies may consider mandatory rationing, which EBMUD imposed
on its users in May. EBMUD required its customers to cut water usage or
face a drought surcharge. That effort has resulted in about 11 percent
conservation, said Andy Katz, the district's general manager. 

	A more drastic impact has been on California's biggest industry,
agriculture, farm officials say. 
	The state's crop losses totaled nearly $260 million this year as
farmers either let their fields sit idle or abandoned their crops,
according to the California Department of Food and Agriculture's latest
figures.

	"The upshot is inevitable," said Chris Scheuring, California
Farm Bureau Federation's water expert. "Farmers are going to do some
fallowing."

	And consumers at grocery stores are likely to be affected in the
form of higher food prices or seeing certain produce on store shelves
for a shortened amount of time if farmers decide to reduce their
planting.

	"This is not an agriculture issue, it's a food-supply issue,"
Scheuring said. 
	But all that said, water officials say that while they hope
rains and snowfall return to the state this winter, Californians also
should do their part to cut back water usage.

	"We're clearly making an extra call for conservation of water
across the state," Snow said. 
	E-mail Matthew Yi at myi at sfchronicle.com
<mailto:myi at sfchronicle.com> . 

http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/10/31/MN7713RHJI.DTL
<http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/10/31/MN7713RHJI.DTL>

	This article appeared on page A - 1 of the San Francisco
Chronicle 

	Spreck Rosekrans 
	Environmental Defense Fund 
	415-293-6082 
	http://www.edf.org <http://www.edf.org>  
	http://blogs.edf.org/waterfront/
<http://blogs.edf.org/waterfront/>  

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