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<H1><FONT size=4>IF YOU THOUGHT LAST WEEK WAS HOT ... <BR>/ Higher temperatures,
rising ocean, loss of snowpack forecast for state</FONT></H1>
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<P class=author><FONT size=1><!-- START WRITER CREDIT--><A
href="mailto:jkay@sfchronicle.com">Jane Kay, Chronicle Environment
Writer</A></FONT></P>
<P class=date><FONT size=1>Tuesday, August 1, 2006</FONT></P>
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<TD vAlign=center align=middle bgColor=#666666 height=20><FONT
face=verdana,arial,sans-serif color=#ffffff size=1><B>Global
Warming</B></FONT></TD></TR>
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<TD vAlign=top align=left><FONT face=verdana,arial,sans-serif
size=1><B><A
href="http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2006/08/01/MNGDAK90EK1.DTL&type=science">Higher
temps, rising ocean, loss of snowpack in state's forecast</A>
(8/1)</B><BR><BR><B><A
href="http://sfgate.com/chronicle/acrobat/2006/08/01/climate_report.pdf">Read
the full report (PDF)</A> (8/1)</B><BR><BR><B><A
href="http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2006/08/01/MNGDAK90DS1.DTL&type=science">Guv
walks a tightrope on issue</A> (8/1)</B><BR><BR><B><A
href="http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2006/08/01/MNGDAK90EM1.DTL&type=science">State,
U.K. strike emissions deal, bypassing Bush</A>
(8/1)</B><BR><BR><B><A
href="http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2006/07/30/MNGEUK86BK1.DTL&type=science">Hottest
year on record</A> (7/30)</B><BR><BR><B><A
href="http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2006/07/26/BAGCTK5IFJ1.DTL&type=science">Climate
change seen hurting parks</A> (7/26)</B><BR><BR><B><A
href="http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/news/archive/2006/06/27/national/a105014D57.DTL">Scientists
gives Gore flick two thumbs up</A> (6/27)</B><BR><BR><B><A
href="http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2006/06/23/MNG6UJJ9RQ1.DTL">Earth
is the hottest in 400 years</A> (6/23)</B><BR><BR><B><A
href="http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2006/06/27/MNGPHJKN0H1.DTL">Supreme
Court gets global warming case</A> (6/23)</B><BR><BR><B><A
href="http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2006/01/15/MNG3FGMHML1.DTL">Chronicle
Series: A Warming World</A> (1/15)</B><BR><BR><!--
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<P>California will become significantly hotter and drier by the end of the
century, causing severe air pollution, a drop in the water supply, the melting
of 90 percent of the Sierra snowpack and up to six times more heat-related
deaths in major urban centers, according to a sweeping study compiled with help
from respected scientists around the country.
<P>The weather -- up to 10.5 degrees warmer by 2100 -- would make last month's
heat wave look average. If industrial and vehicle emissions continue unabated,
there could be up to 100 more days a year when temperatures hit 90 degrees or
above in Los Angeles and 95 degrees or above in Sacramento, the report states.
Both cities have about 20 days of such extreme heat now.
<P>The report's good news: If emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse
gases are significantly curtailed, the number of extremely hot days might
increase by only half those figures.
<P>The report, released today by the California Environmental Protection Agency,
was prepared by the California Climate Change Center, established three years
ago by the California Energy Commission. Scripps Institution of Oceanography and
UC Berkeley are responsible for the core research, and about 75 scientists from
universities, government agencies and nonprofit groups contributed to the study.
<P>The report is the first under an executive order signed in June 2005 by Gov.
Arnold Schwarzenegger that calls for biennial studies on the potential impact on
the state of continued global warming.
<P>"What we wanted to do with the document is summarize the scientific reports
so regular citizens can understand the grave concerns that we believe are facing
California,'' said Claudia Chandler, assistant executive director of the Energy
Commission.
<P>Climate experts have faith in the reliability of global climate models and
their ability to forecast what will happen to the planet as the heat-trapping
greenhouse gases continue to build in the atmosphere. However, some scientists
have been reluctant to say how global warming might affect specific regions,
including areas the size of California. That's because there is debate over
whether models are good enough to zoom in on possible local effects of planetary
climate change.
<P>But Chandler said the state was depending on the core of scientists who
prepared the report to use the best models available to help the state prepare
for problems in the not-too-distant future. "We probably won't know until 10
years from now. But that will be too late. We cannot turn our backs on trying to
address this very serious situation.''
<P>Highlights of the report:
<P>-- Hotter weather would increase the risk of death from dehydration, heat
stroke, heart attack, stroke and respiratory distress. Under the most extreme
scenario, heat-related deaths could increase by four or six times.
<P>-- The snowpack, the state's major source of fresh drinking water, could
nearly disappear.
<P>-- Power demand could go up as much as 20 percent, but hydropower supplies
would drop.
<P>-- Heat could put stress on dairy cows, which could produce up to 20 percent
less milk. Fruit and nut trees could produce smaller, inferior-quality crops.
Wine grape quality could be severely affected in all but the coolest growing
regions.
<P>-- Sea levels would rise, with the possibility of inundating the
Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta, a source of two-thirds of the state's
drinking water.
<P>"We looked at agriculture, one of the state's most important sectors, and the
increased potential of wildfires,'' said Chandler.
<P>"We looked at public health from the standpoint of deteriorating air quality
and the reduced water from the Sierra Nevada snowpack. We looked at what rising
sea levels would mean to the delta's water pumps and levees and to the coastal
cities of Los Angeles, San Francisco, Oakland and San Diego.''
<P>The study authors based their assessments on what would happen in California
under three different emissions scenarios. The amount of emissions would
determine the amount of temperature rise over the century as greenhouse gases
trapped excess heat that would otherwise radiate into space. These scenarios --
which contain varying assumptions on economic and population growth, use of new
efficient technologies and shifts away from the use of fossil fuels -- have been
adopted by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a
collaboration of 2,000 scientists from 100 countries.
<P>With continued higher emissions, temperature increases are projected between
8 and 10.5 degrees; with medium emissions, temperatures would increase between
5.5 and 8 degrees; with lower emissions, the temperature is projected to rise
between 3 and 5.5 degrees.
<P>How the state manages emissions could have a significant impact on how global
warming affects California, the report said. For example, if temperatures rise
as much as 5.5 degrees, there will be 75 to 85 percent more days of weather
conducive to production of unhealthful smog in Los Angeles and the San Joaquin
Valley, it said. The days could be cut if emissions stayed at the lower
scenario.
<P>Sea levels have already risen about 7 inches along the California coast in
the past century. If greenhouse gases continue and temperatures rise into the
upper range, the ocean is expected to rise 22 to 35 inches by the end of the
century.
<P>A mix of increasingly severe winter storms and high tides is expected to
cause more frequent and severe flooding, erosion and damage to coastal
structures, the report said.
<P>The report concludes that California policy alone cannot significantly affect
the warming planet.
<P>"California alone cannot stabilize the planet. However, the state's actions
can drive global progress," the report concludes. If other states and nation's
follow California's example of limiting emissions of greenhouse gases, "we would
be on track to keep temperatures from rising ... and thus avoid the most severe
consequences of global warming." <BR>
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<P><I>E-mail Jane Kay at <A
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