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<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I thought this would be of interest to all of
you. Please note the differences in allocations for South-Of-Delta water
contract allocations between a 50% exceedance forecast and a 90% exceedance
forecast and/or with Delta Smelt actions. There is quite a difference
between the two forecasts.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Tom Stokely</FONT></DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message -----
<DIV style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> <A
title=tcastaneda@mp.usbr.gov href="mailto:tcastaneda@mp.usbr.gov">Theresa
Castaneda</A> </DIV>
<DIV><B>To:</B> <A title=tstokely@trinityalps.net
href="mailto:tstokely@trinityalps.net">tstokely@trinityalps.net</A> </DIV>
<DIV><B>Sent:</B> Friday, January 25, 2008 10:07 AM</DIV>
<DIV><B>Subject:</B> Reclamation Announces Preliminary 2008 Central Valley
Project Water Supply...........</DIV></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV><SPAN id=VOCUSHTML
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: arial,helvetica,sans-serif">
<H5 align=left>Reclamation</H5>
<H5 align=left>Mid-Pacific Region</H5>
<H5 align=left>Sacramento, CA</H5>
<P>MP-08-010</P>
<P>Media Contact: Jeffrey S. McCracken, 916-978-5100, <A
href="mailto:jmccracken@mp.usbr.gov">jmccracken@mp.usbr.gov</A></P>
<P>For Release On: January 25, 2008</P>
<H3>Reclamation Announces Preliminary 2008 Central Valley Project Water Supply
Outlook</H3>
<P>The Bureau of Reclamation today announced the preliminary Water Year 2008
outlook for available supplies from the Federal Central Valley Project
(CVP). Reclamation prepared two forecasts: a conservative forecast
with a 90-percent chance of having runoff greater than forecasted (90-percent
probability of exceedence) and a median forecast with a
50-percent chance of having runoff greater than
forecasted (50-percent probability of exceedence). In the 90-percent
exceedence forecast, the water year inflow into Shasta Reservoir is about 3.4
million acre-feet. The Shasta Reservoir inflow is a criteria for imposing
shortages to settlement contractors and refuges. This preliminary
announcement of the available water supply outlook is based on January 1, 2008,
water runoff information prepared by the California Department of Water
Resources and does not take into account the strong winter storms experienced
earlier this month.</P>
<P>Reclamation traditionally expresses the monthly outlook as a percentage (see
summary table) of the contract total for each of the contract categories.
Allocations are also compared to the recent historic 5-year average of the final
forecasts.</P>
<P>
<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 width="90%" align=center bgColor=#7995b0
border=0>
<TBODY>
<TR>
<TD bgColor=#e3e9f1 colSpan=10>
<P align=center>Mid-Pacific Region<BR><STRONG>Preliminary Water Year 2008
Supply Forecast<BR></STRONG>January 25, 2008</P></TD></TR>
<TR>
<TD width="25%" bgColor=#ece9d8 rowSpan=2>
<P align=center><STRONG><FONT size=1>Probability of Exceedence Forecasts
<BR>and Extent of Fishery Actions **</FONT></STRONG></P></TD>
<TD width="25%" bgColor=#ece9d8 rowSpan=2>
<P align=center><STRONG><FONT size=1>Percent of Historical Average
<BR>Sacramento Valley Index & Year Type</FONT></STRONG></P></TD>
<TD bgColor=#ece9d8 colSpan=4>
<P align=center><STRONG><FONT size=1>North of Delta
Allocation</FONT></STRONG></P></TD>
<TD bgColor=#ece9d8 colSpan=4>
<P align=center><STRONG><FONT size=1>South of Delta
Allocation</FONT></STRONG></P></TD></TR>
<TR>
<TD bgColor=#f3f3f3>
<P align=center><FONT size=2>Ag</FONT></P></TD>
<TD bgColor=#f3f3f3>
<P align=center><FONT size=2>M&I*</FONT></P></TD>
<TD bgColor=#f3f3f3>
<P align=center><FONT size=2>R</FONT></P></TD>
<TD bgColor=#f3f3f3>
<P align=center><FONT size=2>WR</FONT></P></TD>
<TD bgColor=#f3f3f3>
<P align=center><FONT size=2>Ag</FONT></P></TD>
<TD bgColor=#f3f3f3>
<P align=center><FONT size=2>M&I*</FONT></P></TD>
<TD bgColor=#f3f3f3>
<P align=center><FONT size=2>R</FONT></P></TD>
<TD bgColor=#f3f3f3>
<P align=center><FONT size=2>WR</FONT></P></TD></TR>
<TR>
<TD bgColor=#f3f3f3>
<P align=center><FONT size=2>50% and/or few Delta smelt protective
actions</FONT></P></TD>
<TD bgColor=#ffffff>
<P align=center><FONT size=2>73%<BR>Dry </FONT></P></TD>
<TD bgColor=#ffffff>
<P align=center><FONT size=2>100%</FONT></P></TD>
<TD bgColor=#ffffff>
<P align=center><FONT size=2>100%</FONT></P></TD>
<TD bgColor=#ffffff>
<P align=center><FONT size=2>100%</FONT></P></TD>
<TD bgColor=#ffffff>
<P align=center><FONT size=2>100%</FONT></P></TD>
<TD bgColor=#ffffff>
<P align=center><FONT size=2>55%<BR>to<BR>65%</FONT></P></TD>
<TD bgColor=#ffffff>
<P align=center><FONT size=2>80%<BR>to<BR>90%</FONT></P></TD>
<TD bgColor=#ffffff>
<P align=center><FONT size=2>100%</FONT></P></TD>
<TD bgColor=#ffffff>
<P align=center><FONT size=2>100%</FONT></P></TD></TR>
<TR>
<TD bgColor=#f3f3f3>
<P align=center><FONT size=2>90% and/or numerous Delta smelt protective
actions</FONT></P></TD>
<TD bgColor=#ffffff>
<P align=center><FONT size=2>54%<BR>Critical</FONT></P></TD>
<TD bgColor=#ffffff>
<P align=center><FONT size=2>25%</FONT></P></TD>
<TD bgColor=#ffffff>
<P align=center><FONT size=2>75%</FONT></P></TD>
<TD bgColor=#ffffff>
<P align=center><FONT size=2>100%</FONT></P></TD>
<TD bgColor=#ffffff>
<P align=center><FONT size=2>100%</FONT></P></TD>
<TD bgColor=#ffffff>
<P align=center><FONT size=2>25%</FONT></P></TD>
<TD bgColor=#ffffff>
<P align=center><FONT size=2>75%</FONT></P></TD>
<TD bgColor=#ffffff>
<P align=center><FONT size=2>100%</FONT></P></TD>
<TD bgColor=#ffffff>
<P align=center><FONT size=2>100%</FONT></P></TD></TR>
<TR>
<TD bgColor=#f3f3f3 colSpan=2>
<P align=center><FONT size=2>Recent Historic Average<BR>(5-Year Average
Allocation)</FONT></P></TD>
<TD bgColor=#ffffff>
<P align=center><FONT size=2>100%</FONT></P></TD>
<TD bgColor=#ffffff>
<P align=center><FONT size=2>100%</FONT></P></TD>
<TD bgColor=#ffffff>
<P align=center><FONT size=2>100%</FONT></P></TD>
<TD bgColor=#ffffff>
<P align=center><FONT size=2>100%</FONT></P></TD>
<TD bgColor=#ffffff>
<P align=center><FONT size=2>80%</FONT></P></TD>
<TD bgColor=#ffffff>
<P align=center><FONT size=2>98%</FONT></P></TD>
<TD bgColor=#ffffff>
<P align=center><FONT size=2>100%</FONT></P></TD>
<TD bgColor=#ffffff>
<P align=center><FONT size=2>100%</FONT></P></TD></TR>
<TR>
<TD bgColor=#ffffff colSpan=10>
<P><FONT size=1>Ag = Agriculture M&I = Municipal and
Industrial R = Refuges WR = Water Rights
*M&I supply is based on historical deliveries. <BR>**
Reclamation is implementing interim court-ordered measures this year to
provide additional protection for Delta smelt. </FONT><FONT
size=1>The actual actions will vary depending on a real-time assessment of
Delta conditions and the location and maturity of the Delta smelt.
The extent that these actions will impact water supply available for
allocation can vary, and this preliminary project water supply outlook
reflects the uncertainty associated with operations to implement the new
protective measures</FONT></P></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></P>
<P>The Friant Division deliveries for Water Year 2008 are projected to be
400,000 acre-feet, or 32 percent of 1.25 million acre-feet, which is the Recent
Historic Average (5-Year Average Allocation). The preliminary allocation
for the Friant Division Contractors will be 50 percent Class 1 water and 0
percent Class 2 water. The projected Friant Division delivery of 400,000
acre-feet is based on the California Department of Water Resources' 90 percent,
January 1, 2008, forecast. As of January 22, 2008,
precipitation in the San Joaquin River Basin was 11.27 inches for the water year
compared to 9.42 inches this time last year.</P>
<P>In the 90-percent and 50-percent exceedence forecasts, the current Interim
Plan of Operations for New Melones Reservoir, which is used as a guide, suggests
that little or no project water would be available for the CVP Eastside Division
contractors (Stanislaus River). However, Reclamation believes some project
water is available for delivery, and Reclamation is reviewing various
operational scenarios to evaluate project storage, projected inflows, and
degrees of risk management to protect all project use.</P>
<P>The official 2008 CVP water allocation will be made on or about Friday,
February 15, 2008. Throughout the precipitation season, updated
information will be provided as conditions warrant. To receive the latest
forecast on CVP operations, please contact Mr. Paul Fujitani at
916-979-2197. In the coming months, additional information will be posted
on the Mid-Pacific Region's Website at <A
href="http://www.usbr.gov/mp/">http://www.usbr.gov/mp/</A>.</P>
<P align=center>###<BR><BR>Reclamation is the largest wholesale water supplier
and the second largest producer of hydroelectric power in the United States,
with operations and facilities in the 17 western states. Its facilities
also provide substantial flood control, recreation, and fish and wildlife
benefits. Visit our website at <A
href="http://www.usbr.gov/">http://www.usbr.gov</A>.</P></SPAN><!--VOCUSHTML--><BR><BR>
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