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<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:6.6pt'><b><font size=4 face=Arial><span
style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:Arial;font-weight:bold'>Scientists try to
explain dismal salmon run<o:p></o:p></span></font></b></p>
<p class=byline1><font size=1 face=Verdana><span style='font-size:8.0pt'><a
href="mailto:jkay@sfchronicle.com">Jane Kay, Chronicle Environment Writer</a><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=date1><font size=1 face=Verdana><span style='font-size:8.0pt'>Monday,
March 24, 2008<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Verdana><span style='font-size:9.5pt;
font-family:Verdana'><a
href="http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/object/article?f=/c/a/2008/03/24/MN1BVMR10.DTL&o=0"><!-- types/ads/pages/oas/oas_rich.tmpl --><font
color="#015660"><span style='color:#015660;text-decoration:none'><img border=0
width=64 height=64 id="_x0000_i1046" src="cid:image001.gif@01C88D87.5E423DC0"
vspace=1 alt="John Rueth holds a hatchery chinook salmon to be transfer..."></span></font></a><a
href="http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/object/article?f=/c/a/2008/03/24/MN1BVMR10.DTL&o=1"><font
color="#015660"><span style='color:#015660;text-decoration:none'><img border=0
width=64 height=64 id="_x0000_i1047" src="cid:image002.gif@01C88D87.5E423DC0"
vspace=1 alt="Double whammy for chinook salmon. Chronicle graphic by Jo..."></span></font></a><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:9.0pt;line-height:17.3pt'><b><font size=3
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-weight:bold'><span
id=bodytext>Amid growing concern over an imminent shutdown of the commercial
and sport chinook salmon season, scientists are struggling to figure out why
the largest run on the West Coast hit rock bottom and what Californians can do
to bring it back.<o:p></o:p></span></font></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:9.0pt;line-height:17.3pt'><b><font size=3
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-weight:bold'>The
chinook salmon - born in the rivers, growing in the bay and ocean, and returning
to home rivers to spawn - need two essential conditions early in life to
prosper: safe passage through the rivers to the bay and lots of seafood to eat
once they reach the ocean.<o:p></o:p></span></font></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:9.0pt;line-height:17.3pt'><b><font size=3
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-weight:bold'>Yet, the
<st1:place w:st="on">Sacramento River</st1:place> run of salmon that was
expected to fill fish markets in May didn't find those life-sustaining
conditions. And some scientists say that's the likeliest explanation for why
the number of returning spawners plummeted last fall to roughly 90,000, about
10 percent of the peak reached just a few years ago.<o:p></o:p></span></font></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:9.0pt;line-height:17.3pt'><b><font size=3
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-weight:bold'>The
devastating one-two punch happened as the water projects in the <st1:PlaceName
w:st="on">Sacramento-San</st1:PlaceName> <st1:PlaceName w:st="on">Joaquin</st1:PlaceName>
<st1:PlaceType w:st="on">River</st1:PlaceType> Delta pumped record amounts of
snowmelt and rainwater to farms and cities in <st1:place w:st="on">Southern
California</st1:place>, degrading the salmon's habitat. And once the chinook
reached the ocean, they couldn't find the food they needed to survive where and
when they needed it.<o:p></o:p></span></font></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:9.0pt;line-height:17.3pt'><b><font size=3
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-weight:bold'>"You
need good conditions in the rivers and ocean to get survival and good returns
for spawning," said Stephen Ralston, supervisory research fisheries
biologist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA,
and a science adviser to the Pacific Coast Fishery Management Council.<o:p></o:p></span></font></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:9.0pt;line-height:17.3pt'><b><font size=3
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-weight:bold'>Without
those favorable conditions, the salmon run crashed. Five years ago, the peak
was 872,700 returning spawners. Roughly 90,000 were counted in 2007, and only
63,900 are expected to return to spawn in fall 2008.<o:p></o:p></span></font></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
line-height:17.3pt'><b><font size=4 face=Arial><span style='font-size:13.5pt;
font-family:Arial;font-weight:bold'>Helped by cool-water winter<o:p></o:p></span></font></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:9.0pt;line-height:17.3pt'><b><font size=3
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-weight:bold'>The
fishery council, a regulatory body charged with setting fishing limits, has
recommended a full closure or a strict curtailment of the commercial and sport
season. A final decision will come in April.<o:p></o:p></span></font></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:9.0pt;line-height:17.3pt'><b><font size=3
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-weight:bold'>NOAA
researchers say a cool-water winter will help the beleaguered run in the
future. An influx of cold Alaska waters, along with a shot of nutrients from
vigorous upwelling of deep waters, have been fueling the food chain that feeds
salmon, birds and marine mammals.<o:p></o:p></span></font></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:9.0pt;line-height:17.3pt'><b><font size=3
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-weight:bold'>But the
scientists warn that chinook, which have swum through the <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:PlaceName
w:st="on">San Francisco</st1:PlaceName> <st1:PlaceType w:st="on">Bay</st1:PlaceType></st1:place>
for thousands of years, have suffered human harm over the past half-century and
now also need human help.<o:p></o:p></span></font></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:9.0pt;line-height:17.3pt'><b><font size=3
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-weight:bold'>They've
proposed a number of solutions, including sending more water over the dams and
reservoirs and down the tributaries where salmon spawn; removing barriers to
migration such as old dams; screening the fish away from the pumps and
diversion pipes that suck them up, misdirect or kill them; controlling
pesticide and sewage pollution - and catching fewer fish while the populations
try to rebuild.<o:p></o:p></span></font></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:9.0pt;line-height:17.3pt'><b><font size=3
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-weight:bold'>Over the
millennia, salmon have been born in the <st1:place w:st="on">Central Valley</st1:place>
rivers. At about six months, they head through the delta. At 10 months and only
4-inches long, they reach the ocean and start feeding voraciously in the Gulf
of the Farallones on small shrimp, krill and young rockfish.<o:p></o:p></span></font></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:9.0pt;line-height:17.3pt'><b><font size=3
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-weight:bold'>From
there they move to the open waters from Monterey to Vancouver Island in British
Columbia until 3 or 4 years of age or older. Then they return home to their
birth river to reproduce and die. The young come down the rivers, and the cycle
begins again.<o:p></o:p></span></font></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:9.0pt;line-height:17.3pt'><b><font size=3
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-weight:bold'>The
problems for the troubled fall run began in 2004 and 2005, the years the
chinook were born and traveled to the ocean. In those two years, the federal
Central Valley Project and the State Water Project exported record amounts of
delta water to urban and agricultural customers in <st1:place w:st="on">Southern
California</st1:place>.<o:p></o:p></span></font></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
line-height:17.3pt'><b><font size=4 face=Arial><span style='font-size:13.5pt;
font-family:Arial;font-weight:bold'>2005 a bad year for chinook<o:p></o:p></span></font></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:9.0pt;line-height:17.3pt'><b><font size=3
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-weight:bold'>In 2005,
a crucial year for the young salmon, 55 percent of natural river flows never
made it out to the bay, according to records of the state Department of Water
Resources. The water was either exported by the water agencies, diverted upstream
of the delta or held back by dams.<o:p></o:p></span></font></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:9.0pt;line-height:17.3pt'><b><font size=3
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-weight:bold'>"The
flows were less than what the salmon needed, and the populations are
collapsing," said Tina Swanson, senior scientist with the Bay Institute.
Even if water agencies are meeting minimum standards, they are inadequate to
protect the fish, she said.<o:p></o:p></span></font></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:9.0pt;line-height:17.3pt'><b><font size=3
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-weight:bold'>A
network of nonprofits, including the <st1:State w:st="on">California</st1:State>
Sportfishing Protection <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Alliance</st1:place></st1:City>,
filed a notice Tuesday with the State Water Resources Control Board, saying it
would sue if it doesn't curb pumping.<o:p></o:p></span></font></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:9.0pt;line-height:17.3pt'><b><font size=3
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-weight:bold'>But when
looking for an answer to the fall run collapse, Jerry Johns, deputy director of
the state Department of Water Resources, said there are many causes for the
salmon's decline.<o:p></o:p></span></font></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:9.0pt;line-height:17.3pt'><b><font size=3
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-weight:bold'>"You
can't just simply blame it on the pumps," he said. Ocean conditions, a
reduction of phytoplankton in the bay, the amount of salmon fishing, natural
die-off and other factors are part of the broader picture, he said.<o:p></o:p></span></font></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:9.0pt;line-height:17.3pt'><b><font size=3
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-weight:bold'>There
may have been increases in exports to water customers in recent years, but the
crucial point is whether there was also an increase in rainfall and snowmelt,
he said. That would mean there was more water to divert.<o:p></o:p></span></font></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:9.0pt;line-height:17.3pt'><b><font size=3
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-weight:bold'>State
and federal water project representatives say they follow requirements put
forth in their permits, which, among other things, ensure a big enough water
supply to protect endangered species and provide certain minimum temperatures.
They've aided the salmon by removing dams, screening off diversion pipes and
improving habitat.<o:p></o:p></span></font></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:9.0pt;line-height:17.3pt'><b><font size=3
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-weight:bold'>Biologists
caution that salmon need generous flows of cold water at almost every life stage.
The fish also need the fresh river water from the reservoirs at the right
times, particularly in the fall and summer.<o:p></o:p></span></font></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:9.0pt;line-height:17.3pt'><b><font size=3
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-weight:bold'>"The
adults come upstream in the fall to spawn partly because they're responding to
cooler water temperatures," said Peter Moyle, professor of fish biology at
UC Davis. "If the females have to swim through water that's too warm,
their eggs don't mature as well. Some don't hatch at all."<o:p></o:p></span></font></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:9.0pt;line-height:17.3pt'><b><font size=3
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-weight:bold'>Some
females, Moyle said, just stop migrating and wait for cool water. "They
know from evolutionary perspective that if they don't wait until the water gets
cold, the young won't survive," he said. In the end, they spawn or die
before spawning.<o:p></o:p></span></font></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
line-height:17.3pt'><b><font size=4 face=Arial><span style='font-size:13.5pt;
font-family:Arial;font-weight:bold'>'Squirrelly' ocean conditions<o:p></o:p></span></font></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:9.0pt;line-height:17.3pt'><b><font size=3
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-weight:bold'>According
to Moyle, good ocean conditions can somewhat make up for drought in the river
systems and vice versa. But ocean conditions have been "squirrelly"
in the last several years with a number of anomalies that produced abnormally
warm conditions not good for salmon, he said.<o:p></o:p></span></font></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:9.0pt;line-height:17.3pt'><b><font size=3
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-weight:bold'>"Usually,
salmon populations are at their worst when conditions are bad in both fresh
water and salt water," Moyle said. Some scientists think that is what
happened to the 2007 fall run.<o:p></o:p></span></font></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:9.0pt;line-height:17.3pt'><b><font size=3
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-weight:bold'>Once in
the ocean, salmon must gorge on small sea creatures to survive.<o:p></o:p></span></font></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:9.0pt;line-height:17.3pt'><b><font size=3
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-weight:bold'>In 2005
and 2006, the years that the 2007 fall run needed food near the shore in the
Gulf of the Farallones, the upwelling of nutrients apparently came too late to
produce the small fish that feed the salmon.<o:p></o:p></span></font></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:9.0pt;line-height:17.3pt'><b><font size=3
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-weight:bold'>Most of
the scientists studying the ocean link the unexpected bouts of rising
temperatures to global warming. As the atmosphere and oceans have warmed,
researchers have had to discard the theory of decades of warmer, then cooler,
ocean temperatures. Now they expect an unpredictability, which is projected in
climate models.<o:p></o:p></span></font></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:9.0pt;line-height:17.3pt'><b><font size=3
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-weight:bold'>"What's
happening is that the rockfish, the squid, the krill, the anchovies and the
community of critters that salmon feed on changed dramatically in 2004 to the
prey that is not as favorable to salmon," NOAA's Ralston said.<o:p></o:p></span></font></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:9.0pt;line-height:17.3pt'><b><font size=3
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-weight:bold'>The distribution
of the sea life also changed. Young rockfish moved well to the north or to the
south of Central California, he said.<o:p></o:p></span></font></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:9.0pt;line-height:17.3pt'><b><font size=3
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-weight:bold'>Ralston's
hypothesis is that animals are adapted to finding food at certain times and in
certain locations. "When salmon arrive in the ocean, they'll go to certain
areas to find their food as they have for millennia," he said. "If we
have a major change, their fitness, their ocean survival is compromised."<o:p></o:p></span></font></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:9.0pt;line-height:17.3pt'><b><font size=3
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-weight:bold'>Bill
Peterson, a NOAA researcher in Newport, Ore., offered some hope for a cooler
offshore current, although he cautioned that there would be a few years of hard
times for chinook. <o:p></o:p></span></font></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:9.0pt;line-height:17.3pt'><b><font size=3
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-weight:bold'>"It's
looking kind of good this year" with five months of cold ocean currents,
he said. But the scientists are "very guarded" because in the past
two years the ocean was cold in the winter, and then the winds that brought
upwelling quit in May and June, reducing the zooplankton that feed the prey of
the salmon.<o:p></o:p></span></font></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:9.0pt;line-height:17.3pt'><b><font size=3
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-weight:bold'>Peterson
would like to see measures that would aid the salmon.<o:p></o:p></span></font></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:9.0pt;line-height:17.3pt'><b><font size=3
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-weight:bold'>"These
fish are so resilient and tough," Peterson said. "We should be a
little nicer to them." <o:p></o:p></span></font></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:9.0pt;line-height:17.3pt'><strong><b><font
size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt'>Graphic:</span></font></b></strong><b><span
style='font-weight:bold'> How a combination of river and ocean events during
the chinook salmon's life- cycle may have contributed to one of the lowest
counts on record in 2007 of the returning <st1:place w:st="on">Sacramento River</st1:place>
run. <o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'><img border=0 width=900 height=626 id="_x0000_i1114"
src="cid:image003.jpg@01C88D87.5E423DC0"><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoAutoSig><st1:PersonName w:st="on"><st1:PersonName w:st="on"><i><font
size=3 color=gray face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt;
color:gray;font-style:italic'>Byron</span></font></i></st1:PersonName><i><font
color=gray><span style='color:gray;font-style:italic'> Leydecker</span></font></i></st1:PersonName><i><font
color=gray><span style='color:gray;font-style:italic'><o:p></o:p></span></font></i></p>
<p class=MsoAutoSig><i><font size=3 color=gray face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:gray;font-style:italic'>Friends of <st1:place
w:st="on">Trinity River</st1:place>, Chair</span></font></i><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoAutoSig><st1:address w:st="on"><st1:Street w:st="on"><i><font
size=3 color=gray face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt;
color:gray;font-style:italic'>PO Box</span></font></i></st1:Street><i><font
color=gray><span style='color:gray;font-style:italic'> 2327</span></font></i></st1:address><i><font
color=gray><span style='color:gray;font-style:italic'><o:p></o:p></span></font></i></p>
<p class=MsoAutoSig><st1:place w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on"><i><font size=3
color=gray face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:gray;
font-style:italic'>Mill Valley</span></font></i></st1:City><i><font
color=gray><span style='color:gray;font-style:italic'>, <st1:State w:st="on">CA</st1:State>
<st1:PostalCode w:st="on">94942-2327</st1:PostalCode></span></font></i></st1:place><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoAutoSig><i><font size=3 color=gray face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:gray;font-style:italic'>415 383 4810</span></font></i><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoAutoSig><i><font size=3 color=gray face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:gray;font-style:italic'>415 519 4810 cell</span></font></i><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoAutoSig><i><font size=3 color=gray face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:gray;font-style:italic'>415 383 9562 fax<o:p></o:p></span></font></i></p>
<p class=MsoAutoSig><i><font size=3 color=blue face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:blue;font-style:italic'>bwl3@comcast.net<o:p></o:p></span></font></i></p>
<p class=MsoAutoSig><i><font size=3 color=blue face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:blue;font-style:italic'>bleydecker@stanfordalumni.org</span></font>
<font color=gray><span style='color:gray'>(secondary)<o:p></o:p></span></font></i></p>
<p class=MsoAutoSig><i><font size=3 color=blue face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:blue;font-style:italic'>http://www.fotr.org<o:p></o:p></span></font></i></p>
<p class=MsoAutoSig><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'> <i><font color=blue><span style='color:blue;font-style:italic'><o:p></o:p></span></font></i></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
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