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<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:13.0pt'><font size=4 face=Arial><span
style='font-size:13.0pt;font-family:Arial'><a
href="http://oregonstate.edu/dept/ncs/newsarch/2008/Dec08/oceanconditions.html"
target="_blank">http://oregonstate.edu/dept/ncs/newsarch/2008/Dec08/oceanconditions.html</a><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<h3 style='margin-bottom:13.5pt'><b><font size=4 face=Arial><span
style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:Arial'>2008 Ocean Conditions for Fish Among
Best in Half-Century<o:p></o:p></span></font></b></h3>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=4 face=Arial><span style='font-size:13.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>NEWPORT, Ore. Ocean conditions during 2008 for many fish
species in the Pacific Northwest, including chinook salmon, were greatly
improved because of a huge cold water influx that settled in across much of the
northern Pacific Ocean a phenomenon not seen on this scale in years.<br>
<br>
In fact, scientists who surveyed near-shore waters from <st1:City w:st="on">Newport</st1:City>,
<st1:State w:st="on">Ore.</st1:State>, to <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">LaPush</st1:City>,
<st1:State w:st="on">Wash.</st1:State></st1:place>, this year found the
highest numbers of juvenile chinook salmon they’ve encountered in 11
years of sampling.<br>
<br>
The reason may be traced to the <a
href="http://www.nwfsc.noaa.gov/research/divisions/fed/oeip/ca-pdo.cfm"
target="_blank">Pacific Decadal Oscillation</a>, a pattern of climate
variability that historically has shifted between warm (positive) and cool
(negative) regimes over cycles of 20 to 30 years. During 2008, the PDO was the
most negative it has been since 1955, according to Bill Peterson, a NOAA
fisheries biologist at <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:PlaceName w:st="on">Oregon</st1:PlaceName>
<st1:PlaceType w:st="on">State</st1:PlaceType> <st1:PlaceType w:st="on">Universities</st1:PlaceType>
<a href="http://hmsc.oregonstate.edu" target="_blank">Hatfield Marine Science
Center</a>.<br>
<br>
We usually see cold water conditions for a few months once upwelling begins in
late spring and early summer, said Peterson, who has a courtesy appointment in
OSUs <a href="http://www.coas.oregonstate.edu" target="_blank">College of
Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences</a>. Since April of 2007, though, we've been
in a constant summer-state ocean condition, which is something wave never seen
in more than 20 years of sampling. And were not sure why.<br>
<br>
Strong, continual upwelling has fueled phytoplankton growth that forms the
basis of the marine food web. Cold water has drawn a huge biomass of northern
copepods from the <st1:place w:st="on">Gulf of Alaska</st1:place>, and these
zooplankton species have high fat reserves that provide a rich diet for
anchovies, herring and other baitfish, which in turn become prey for salmon,
ling cod and other creatures.<br>
<br>
The <a
href="http://www.nwfsc.noaa.gov/research/divisions/fed/oeip/a-ecinhome.cfm"
target="_blank">ocean</a> is thick with these large copepods, which accumulate
fat as a way to survive the winter, Peterson said. When the Pacific Decadal
Oscillation is in a positive phase and warmer water moves into the coast from
offshore and the south, the copepods we see are species that are smaller and don’t
retain lipids.<br>
<br>
Peterson said anecdotal evidence from other researchers at <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:PlaceName
w:st="on">OSUs</st1:PlaceName> <st1:PlaceName w:st="on">Hatfield</st1:PlaceName>
<st1:PlaceName w:st="on">Marine</st1:PlaceName> <st1:PlaceName w:st="on">Science</st1:PlaceName>
<st1:PlaceType w:st="on">Center</st1:PlaceType></st1:place> suggests that
recruitment for juvenile ling cod and other rockfish was extraordinary in
2008. Seabirds, including pelicans and a large murre colony at Yaquina Head,
were healthy and well-fed. And there was a large population of sand lances a
small baitfish that feeds on copepods.<br>
<br>
If there is a downside, Peterson says, it is that the survey didn't find as
many juvenile coho salmon in 2008 as the scientists had hoped. The number of
juvenile chinook, on the other hand, was 2.4 times higher than any other
survey recorded in the past 13 years, Peterson said. The scientists used an
array of nets in their survey, including a trawling net as tall as a
five-story building and as wide as half a football field.<br>
<br>
Though 2008 has been a banner year for ocean conditions and many fish species
it is too early to know what the future holds for ocean conditions or fish
runs. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation has been shifting more rapidly between
warm and cool phases, possibly in response to climate change. A positive
phase, characterized by warm, less-salty water, occurred from 1925 to 1947,
followed by a negative phase of cooler, saltier water from 1948 to 1976. Then
another positive phase took over and lasted through the powerful El Nino of
1998.<br>
<br>
Since then, however, the regimes have been much shorter. The PDO was negative
from 1999 to 2002, positive from 2003 to 2006, then abruptly shifted to cooler
waters during the last two years. Will this latest cold-water regime last two
years or two decades?<br>
<br>
"That's the million dollar question”, Peterson said.<br>
<br>
Peterson and his colleagues have received a grant from NASA to track the
source of the cold water to see if it has circulated from the <st1:place
w:st="on">Gulf of Alaska</st1:place> through an advection process, or is the
result of a different upwelling pattern, bringing deep water to the surface.
However, sea surface temperatures haven’t dropped as much as
temperatures lower in the water column.<br>
<br>
Temperatures recorded this year at a sampling station five miles west of <st1:City
w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Newport</st1:place></st1:City>, at a depth of
50 meters, were the coldest in the 13 years they’ve been measured. This
suggests to Peterson that the ocean is becoming more stratified, which is
consistent with climate change models. Those same models also suggest more
annual variability in ocean conditions.<br>
<br>
The year 2005 was one of the worst in history, as delayed upwelling caused a
food shortage that led, among other things, to the collapse of the <st1:place
w:st="on">Sacramento River</st1:place> chinook salmon run, Peterson said. In
contrast, 2008 has been one of the best years on record and though its a
generality, cold water usually means good things for salmon.<br>
<br>
We just don’t know how long this is going to last.<b><font size=3
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman";
font-weight:bold'><o:p></o:p></span></font></b></st1:place></span></font></p>
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Leydecker</span></font></i></em></st1:PersonName><em><i><font color=gray
face="Times New Roman"><span style='color:gray'>, JcT, Chair</span></font></i></em><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><em><i><font size=3 color=gray face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:gray'>Friends of <st1:place w:st="on">Trinity
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<st1:PostalCode w:st="on">94942-2327</st1:PostalCode></span></font></i></em></st1:place><o:p></o:p></p>
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style='font-size:12.0pt'><a href="mailto:bleydecker@stanfordalumni.org">bleydecker@stanfordalumni.org</a></span></font></i></em><o:p></o:p></p>
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