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<h1 style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt'><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'>Opinion: Water won't wash away Valley's
recession<o:p></o:p></span></h1>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'>The
Sacramento Bee – 5/1/09<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'>By
Jeffrey Michael<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=storybug style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt'><b><i><span
style='font-size:14.0pt'>Jeffrey Michael is the director of the Business
Forecasting Center and an associate professor at the University of the Pacific
in Stockton<o:p></o:p></span></i></b></p>
<p class=storybug style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt'><b><span
style='font-size:14.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt'><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt'>What
is causing unemployment in the San Joaquin Valley? According to water
contractors and their political supporters, a "regulatory drought"
has eliminated water-dependent farm jobs, and they point to high unemployment
rates in farming communities as proof. Their solution is to suspend the
Endangered Species Act and build a multibillion-dollar peripheral canal around
the Delta.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt'><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt'><b><u><span style='font-size:14.0pt'>However,
the facts don't support the water contractors' view. The latest payroll data
through March finds that farm jobs have grown faster than any other sector of
the economy in the past 12 months, even outpacing health care. In fact, farm
jobs have been growing throughout the three-year drought. Compared with 2006,
farm jobs have increased 5 percent in California, while private nonfarm jobs
have decreased 5 percent.<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p>
<p style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt'><b><u><span style='font-size:14.0pt'><o:p><span
style='text-decoration:none'> </span></o:p></span></u></b></p>
<p style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt'><b><u><span style='font-size:14.0pt'>The
same is true in Fresno County, home to communities such as Mendota that have
been the focus of water exporters' news releases. <o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p>
<p style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt'><b><u><span style='font-size:14.0pt'><o:p><span
style='text-decoration:none'> </span></o:p></span></u></b></p>
<p style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt'><b><u><span style='font-size:14.0pt'>In
Fresno County, farm payrolls increased 3.2 percent in the past 12 months,
compared with a 3.4 percent decrease in private, nonfarm payrolls.<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p>
<p style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt'><b><u><span style='font-size:14.0pt'><o:p><span
style='text-decoration:none'> </span></o:p></span></u></b></p>
<p style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt'><b><u><span style='font-size:14.0pt'>Since
the drought began three years ago, Fresno County farm payrolls have increased
by 12 percent, while nonfarm employment has crashed, led by a loss of more than
7,000 construction jobs.<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p>
<p style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt'><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt'><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt'>In
light of these statistics, how can water exporters, politicians and others
claim that rising unemployment in the Valley is a result of water shortages for
farms rather than the broader recession? The foreclosure crisis is at the heart
of the recession, and the Central Valley has the highest foreclosure rates in
the United States. Homebuilding has shut down, and service sectors have
cratered, costing many former farmworkers their higher paying, nonseasonal jobs.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt'><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt'><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt'>Water
contractors point to 40 percent unemployment in Mendota as evidence of the
water crisis. These unemployment estimates for towns aren't a current survey,
but are crude extrapolations from the 2000 Census, the last time any real data
were compiled for these areas.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt'><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt'><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt'>The
2000 census gives a good picture of the prosperity that increased water pumping
would bring to Mendota's hard-working residents. Delta water exports were above
average in 2000, and local farm employment was at a nine-year peak.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt'><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt'><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt'> Despite
this, the 2000 census found unemployment in Mendota exceeded 32 percent,
highest of the state's 494 towns.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt'><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt'><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt'>Per-capita
income was below $8,000, the lowest level in the state, nearly 20 percent lower
than Mexico and many developing nations in Africa, Eastern Europe and South
America. Not surprisingly, water contractors don't issue news releases about
unemployment when they have water.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt'><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt'><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt'>In
fact, growers have been complaining about shortages in recent years, even as
Mendota's unemployment estimate was 25 to 30 percent.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt'><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt'><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt'>There
will be substantially fewer seasonal farm jobs this year as thousands of acres
are idled, and this will further increase the pain of the recession in farming
areas south of the Delta water pumps. As these impacts appear, it is important
to consider them over the entire three-year span of the drought, rather than
treat agriculture's recent unsustainable peak as normal.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt'><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt'><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt'>In
the early years of the drought, agriculture expanded in response to a commodity
bubble that more than doubled crop prices, farm profits, and farmland values in
a span of a few years. Much of the increase is attributed to permanent crops in
desert regions with interruptible junior water rights. Between 2006 and 2008,
more than 50,000 acres of new almond orchards were planted, mostly south of the
Delta pumps, while a nut glut led to a price collapse for all growers.
Similarly, California's enormous dairy industry expanded rapidly, and now
taxpayers are spending millions to buy surplus milk and prop up prices in an
oversupplied market.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt'><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt'><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt'>Taxpayers
are the forgotten stakeholders in the various Delta planning processes. With no
one protecting taxpayer interests, it's no surprise that Delta Vision
recommended the most costly options to the governor. The Bay Delta Conservation
Plan does not plan to make a cost estimate of their plan until after it is
complete.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt'><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt'><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt'>Recent
state tax increases are hurting families, businesses and private sector job
creation, while California has the lowest bond rating of any state. Water
contractors think the state should borrow billions for their cause, crowding
out investments in education, energy, transportation and other critical areas
that will support the high-paying jobs of the future.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt'><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt'><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt'>Their
plan would also have adverse impacts on Delta agriculture, recreation and
tourism, commercial fishing and the jobs supported by these industries.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt'><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt'><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt'>Delta
Vision, water contractors and now the Bay Delta Conservation Plan are primarily
making economic arguments for their plans. While spending millions on engineering
studies and public relations, the state is not sponsoring any serious research
to comprehensively evaluate economic effects of the water plan.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt'><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt'>California's overburdened
taxpayers deserve better.</span></b><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><i><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:gray'>Byron
Leydecker, JcT</span></i><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><i><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:gray'>Chair, Friends
of Trinity River</span></i><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><i><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:gray'>PO Box 2327</span></i><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><i><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:gray'>Mill Valley, CA
94942-2327</span></i><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><i><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:gray'>415 383 4810
land</span></i><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><i><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:gray'>415 519 4810
cell</span></i><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><i><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:gray'><a
href="mailto:bwl3@comcast.net"><span style='color:blue'>bwl3@comcast.net</span></a></span></i></b><b><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><i><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:gray'><a
href="mailto:bleydecker@stanfordalumni.org"><span style='color:blue'>bleydecker@stanfordalumni.org</span></a>
</span></i></b><i><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:gray'>(secondary)</span></i><b><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><i><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:gray'><a
href="http://fotr.org/"><span style='color:blue'>http://www.fotr.org</span></a>
</span></i></b><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
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