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<h1>Jeffrey Michael: Water won't wash away Valley's recession<o:p></o:p></h1>
<p class=MsoNormal>By Jeffrey Michael <br>
Special to The Bee <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>Published: Friday, May. 1, 2009 - 12:00 am <o:p></o:p></p>
<p><b>What is causing unemployment in the San Joaquin Valley? According to
water contractors and their political supporters, a "regulatory
drought" has eliminated water-dependent farm jobs, and they point to high
unemployment rates in farming communities as proof. Their solution is to
suspend the Endangered Species Act and build a multibillion-dollar peripheral
canal around the Delta.<o:p></o:p></b></p>
<p><b>However, the facts don't support the water contractors' view. The latest
payroll data through March finds that farm jobs have grown faster than any
other sector of the economy in the past 12 months, even outpacing health care.
In fact, farm jobs have been growing throughout the three-year drought.
Compared with 2006, farm jobs have increased 5 percent in California, while private
nonfarm jobs have decreased 5 percent.<o:p></o:p></b></p>
<p><b>The same is true in <a href="http://topics.sacbee.com/Fresno+County/"><span
style='font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Georgia","serif"'>Fresno County,</span></a>
home to communities such as Mendota that have been the focus of water
exporters' news releases. <o:p></o:p></b></p>
<p><b>In Fresno County, farm payrolls increased 3.2 percent in the past 12 months,
compared with a 3.4 percent decrease in private, nonfarm payrolls.<o:p></o:p></b></p>
<p><b>Since the drought began three years ago, Fresno County farm payrolls have
increased by 12 percent, while nonfarm employment has crashed, led by a loss of
more than 7,000 construction jobs.<o:p></o:p></b></p>
<p><b>In light of these statistics, how can water exporters, politicians and
others claim that rising unemployment in the Valley is a result of water
shortages for farms rather than the broader recession? The foreclosure crisis
is at the heart of the recession, and the Central Valley has the highest
foreclosure rates in the United States. Homebuilding has shut down, and service
sectors have cratered, costing many former farmworkers their higher paying,
nonseasonal jobs.<o:p></o:p></b></p>
<p><b>Water contractors point to 40 percent unemployment in Mendota as evidence
of the water crisis. These unemployment estimates for towns aren't a current
survey, but are crude extrapolations from the 2000 Census, the last time any
real data were compiled for these areas.<o:p></o:p></b></p>
<p><b>The 2000 census gives a good picture of the prosperity that increased
water pumping would bring to Mendota's hard-working residents. Delta water
exports were above average in 2000, and local farm employment was at a
nine-year peak. Despite this, the 2000 census found unemployment in Mendota
exceeded 32 percent, highest of the state's 494 towns.<o:p></o:p></b></p>
<p><b>Per-capita income was below $8,000, the lowest level in the state, nearly
20 percent lower than Mexico and many developing nations in Africa, <a
href="http://topics.sacbee.com/Eastern+Europe/"><span style='font-size:11.5pt;
font-family:"Georgia","serif"'>Eastern Europe</span></a> and <a
href="http://topics.sacbee.com/South+America/"><span style='font-size:11.5pt;
font-family:"Georgia","serif"'>South America.</span></a> Not surprisingly,
water contractors don't issue news releases about unemployment when they have
water.<o:p></o:p></b></p>
<p><b>In fact, growers have been complaining about shortages in recent years,
even as Mendota's unemployment estimate was 25 to 30 percent.<o:p></o:p></b></p>
<p><b>There will be substantially fewer seasonal farm jobs this year as
thousands of acres are idled, and this will further increase the pain of the
recession in farming areas south of the Delta water pumps. As these impacts
appear, it is important to consider them over the entire three-year span of the
drought, rather than treat agriculture's recent unsustainable peak as normal.<o:p></o:p></b></p>
<p><b>In the early years of the drought, agriculture expanded in response to a
commodity bubble that more than doubled crop prices, farm profits, and farmland
values in a span of a few years. Much of the increase is attributed to
permanent crops in desert regions with interruptible junior water rights.
Between 2006 and 2008, more than 50,000 acres of new almond orchards were
planted, mostly south of the Delta pumps, while a nut glut led to a price
collapse for all growers. Similarly, California's enormous dairy industry
expanded rapidly, and now taxpayers are spending millions to buy surplus milk
and prop up prices in an oversupplied market.<o:p></o:p></b></p>
<p><b>Taxpayers are the forgotten stakeholders in the various Delta planning
processes. With no one protecting taxpayer interests, it's no surprise that
Delta Vision recommended the most costly options to the governor. The Bay Delta
Conservation Plan does not plan to make a cost estimate of their plan until
after it is complete.<o:p></o:p></b></p>
<p><b>Recent state tax increases are hurting families, businesses and private
sector job creation, while California has the lowest bond rating of any state.
Water contractors think the state should borrow billions for their cause,
crowding out investments in education, energy, transportation and other critical
areas that will support the high-paying jobs of the future.<o:p></o:p></b></p>
<p><b>Their plan would also have adverse impacts on Delta agriculture,
recreation and tourism, commercial fishing and the jobs supported by these
industries.<o:p></o:p></b></p>
<p><b>Delta Vision, water contractors and now the Bay Delta Conservation Plan
are primarily making economic arguments for their plans. While spending
millions on engineering studies and public relations, the state is not
sponsoring any serious research to comprehensively evaluate economic effects of
the water plan.<o:p></o:p></b></p>
<p><b>California's overburdened taxpayers deserve better.<o:p></o:p></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><i><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:gray'>Byron
Leydecker, JcT</span></i><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><i><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:gray'>Chair, Friends
of Trinity River</span></i><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><i><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:gray'>PO Box 2327</span></i><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><i><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:gray'>Mill Valley, CA
94942-2327</span></i><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><i><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:gray'>415 383 4810
land</span></i><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><i><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:gray'>415 519 4810
cell</span></i><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><i><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:gray'><a
href="mailto:bwl3@comcast.net"><span style='color:blue'>bwl3@comcast.net</span></a></span></i></b><b><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><i><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:gray'><a
href="mailto:bleydecker@stanfordalumni.org"><span style='color:blue'>bleydecker@stanfordalumni.org</span></a>
</span></i></b><i><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:gray'>(secondary)</span></i><b><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><i><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:gray'><a
href="http://fotr.org/"><span style='color:blue'>http://www.fotr.org</span></a>
</span></i></b><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
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