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<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'>El
Niņo may still give us a wet winter, weather experts say<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'>Sacramento
Bee-1/8/10<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'>By
Matt Weiser<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>El
Niņo was predicted to dominate the weather this winter, but a look out the
window suggests that forecast has fizzled.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>Sacramento
rainfall so far this winter is merely normal, and the Sierra Nevada snowpack is
only 84 percent of average.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>But
don't give up on El Niņo just yet. <o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>Several
weather experts predict El Niņo will soon crank open the faucet and blow away
the cold, gray skies that have gripped the Sacramento region for weeks. They
expect much wetter weather through March.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>"I'm
not wringing my hands terribly much," said Tim Barnett, a climate
researcher at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in San Diego.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>"Odds
are good to see some pretty good storms later in the winter," he said.
"How much rain, nobody can really tell you. All I can tell you is, it will
be in the upper third of all the wet years."<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>John
Monteverdi, a professor of meteorology at San Francisco State University, said
he expects El Niņo to begin showing its hand in California next week.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>"There
are lots of indications that a pattern shift is about to occur," he said.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>A
crucial point is that El Niņo typically doesn't deliver its punch until later
in the winter. So it's too early to fear a fourth drought year.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>"I
don't expect a whopper," said Maury Roos, a hydrologist at the California
Department of Water Resources. However, he added, "I'm optimistic we will
wind up getting a fairly decent January and February, probably above
average."<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>El
Niņo is defined as a warming of the equatorial Pacific Ocean that's typically
in place around Christmas – hence the name, which is Spanish slang for
"Christ child."<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>This
warming of the vast Pacific typically alters weather patterns throughout the
Western Hemisphere. In the United States, the Northwest usually gets drier and
the Southwest wetter.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>Sacramento
and Central California, however, sit between these effects, so El Niņo effects
here can go either way. The Sierra Nevada snowpack – all-important to the
state's water supplies – is also hard to predict in an El Niņo winter.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>Yet
El Niņo is often overhyped in the media because it has, on occasion, brought
memorable and sometimes damaging storms to California.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>"There
is no doubt that we're having an El Niņo," said Bill Patzert, a
climatologist at the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena. "Now,
that doesn't mean it's going to rain. The impact of the El Niņo has often been
exaggerated."<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>Patzert
doubts this year's El Niņo will bring major rains. He said its effect is muted
by another phenomenon called the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, a longer-term change
that is actually trending toward cooler ocean temperatures.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>This
winter is considered a moderate El Niņo, meaning the ocean warming isn't as
great as the historical maximum. This makes rainfall predictions even more
difficult.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>In
an updated forecast released Thursday, the National Weather Service said El
Niņo strengthened in December. The service still predicts improved odds for
above-average precipitation through Jan. 20, especially for Central California,
and continuing through March.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>In
the near term, though, expect more fog through Monday, followed by a chance of
rain Tuesday and Wednesday.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>A
more ambitious prediction comes from Gregg Suhler, whose company, Dynamic
Predictables in Columbia, Mo., developed a unique forecasting tool called ATLAS.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>Unlike
traditional forecasting that relies on climate observations and historical
trends, ATLAS uses thermodynamic principles to tap into recurring energy cycles
that drive global weather.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>Simply
put, Suhler said, there is a certain amount of energy in the atmosphere that
has to be spent every year in the form of storms. If it isn't – for
instance, during a stretch of drought years – that energy eventually
builds up to produce very big storms on a regular cycle.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>Suhler
said that cycle for the Sacramento River basin is about 16 years, and is
starting to come back around again.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>As
a result, Suhler predicts 15 to 20 inches of rain in the Sacramento River
watershed in February. If it comes to pass, this could refill some of the
state's most important reservoirs, from Shasta to Folsom. It also could cause
damaging floods.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>Normal
February rainfall in the city of Sacramento is 2.8 inches.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>"January
and February are looking to be a really wet sucker," Suhler said. "We
want people to know about it."<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>He
developed the forecast after DWR expressed an interest. The state didn't come
through with funding, so he shared it with The Bee.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>The
ATLAS computer model has been presented at science conferences but has not been
published in a peer-reviewed science journal yet, Suhler said.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>Experts
in conventional forecasting are skeptical.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>"Over
the last decade, we've had a lot of false alarms about El Niņo," Patzert
said. "As you look back in the historical record, there really haven't
been that many of what I call 'macho El Niņos.' "<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>On
the other hand, it's worth looking at the winter of 1994-95. It started out
dry. Californians feared that one of the worst droughts in history –
officially recorded from 1987 to 1992 – wasn't really over.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>Then
El Niņo caused major floods in many areas of the state in January and March
1995, including $220 million in damage and 28 deaths.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>"It
turned out to be a heavy year when it was done, but it was a late
bloomer," Roos said.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><i><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:gray'>Byron
Leydecker, JcT</span></i><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><i><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:gray'>Chair, Friends
of Trinity River</span></i><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><i><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:gray'>PO Box 2327</span></i><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><i><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:gray'>Mill Valley, CA
94942-2327</span></i><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><i><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:gray'>415 383 4810
land/fax (call first to fax)</span></i><span style='font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><i><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:gray'>415 519 4810
mobile</span></i><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><i><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:gray'><a
href="mailto:bwl3@comcast.net"><span style='color:blue'>bwl3@comcast.net</span></a></span></i></b><b><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><i><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:gray'><a
href="mailto:bleydecker@stanfordalumni.org"><span style='color:blue'>bleydecker@stanfordalumni.org</span></a>
</span></i></b><i><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:gray'>(secondary)</span></i><b><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><i><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:gray'><a
href="http://fotr.org/"><span style='color:blue'>http://www.fotr.org</span></a>
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