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<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'>Drought
label stays, and some blame politics</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'>S.F.
Chronicle-5/16/10<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'>By Wyatt
Buchanan<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>This
winter, heavy snowfall buried the Sierra Nevada and torrential rains drenched
much of California, with storms so intense in January that emergencies were
declared in several counties, including Los Angeles and San Francisco.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>But
while El Niņo ended California's three years of dry winters, Gov. Arnold
Schwarzenegger does not intend to declare an end to the drought. Critics say
the reason is political: In November, California voters will be asked to
approve an $11 billion water bond measure that the governor has pushed for
years.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>The
bonds would pay for new dams and other water storage projects, drought relief,
regional water management and restoration of the Sacramento-San Joaquin River
Delta, among other things.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>Jonas
Minton, a former deputy director of the state Department of Water Resources,
likened the governor's extension of the water crisis to the fabricated drought
of the 1974 Roman Polanski film "Chinatown," where Los Angeles
officials secretly dump fresh water into the ocean to create a water shortage
in order to pass a bond.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>"California's
snowpack at the start of this month stood at over 140 percent of average,"
said Minton, who is now a water policy analyst for the Conservation and
Planning League and is campaigning against the bond measure. "The average
voter will be able to tell this is not a drought."<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>The
ability to say the state is in a drought helps the bond campaign immensely,
said Jim Ross, a veteran San Francisco political consultant.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>"Really
what it does is simplifies the issue: We have rationing. We need to make sure
we have enough water. Here's how," Ross said.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>Only
the governor has the power to declare the beginning and end of droughts in
California. On June 4, 2008, after two years of below-average rainfall and
snowmelt, Schwarzenegger declared a statewide drought.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>At
that time, the state's final snow survey of the year indicated a water
shortage. California gets much of its water from snowmelt and the annual spring
measurement helps state officials determine how much water will be available
for consumption and irrigation. That year, the snowpack in the Sierra was 67
percent of normal, and water storage in the state's major reservoirs was far
below normal: Lake Oroville was at 50 percent of capacity, Shasta Lake at 61
percent and Folsom Lake at 63 percent.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>This
year, the final snow survey in the Sierra, taken April 30, showed the snowpack
at 143 percent of normal - double the previous year's level. As of last week,
Shasta Lake - California's largest reservoir- was 98 percent full, Folsom Lake
was 89 percent full and Lake Oroville was 65 percent full.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>More
snow has fallen since the final snow survey, more rain is forecast - there's a
chance of showers on Monday in parts of the state, including San Francisco,
Bakersfield and Sacramento - and the National Weather Service predicts river
flows to all three reservoirs will exceed historical averages through July. <o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>Yet,
the governor and his water experts say that, among other reasons, the
below-average levels at Lake Oroville, the state's second-largest reservoir,
are too significant to declare an end to the drought.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>So
on June 4, California will officially enter its fourth year of drought.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>Administration
officials caution that California may be experiencing a wet year amidst a
string of dry years and thus it is premature to end the official drought
declaration. But in early 1993, Gov. Pete Wilson declared the six-year drought
of the late 1980s and early 1990s, the third-longest in state history, after
five months of above-average precipitation.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>The
state's reservoirs did not return to normal levels for another year after
Wilson's declaration, according to the water resources department.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>Jeff
Macedo, a spokesman for Schwarzenegger, said 2010 has "been a great year
for rain," but added, "We've only had one good season of rain over
the past four years. It isn't time to call an end to the drought."<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>State
water officials echo the governor's stance, though they acknowledge that the
drought may indeed be over.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>"Drought
is an imprecise term and arguably most of the state is probably not in a
drought at the moment," said Wendy Martin, statewide drought coordinator
for the Department of Water Resources. "But you really can't tell until
sometime in the future when you can look back."<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>In
1995, the University of Nebraska-Lincoln established the National Drought
Mitigation Center to track drought conditions across the United States. The
center pulls together federal and academic scientists to monitor and forecast
droughts to help governments and institutions plan and prepare.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>Based
on its most recent data, updated Tuesday, the center estimates that 83 percent
of California has no drought condition, although some of the state is abnormally
dry. Climatologists there estimate that 17 percent of the state, concentrated
in the extreme northeast corner, has drought conditions.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>They
base estimates on a number of indexes, including precipitation, vegetation
health, reservoir levels, snowpack, stream flow and soil moisture. The
long-term forecast shows that drought probably will continue in the handful of
affected counties - mainly Modoc, Lassen and Siskiyou - but no drought is
expected in the rest of the state, said Brian Fuchs, a climatologist at the
center.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>"We
put the information out, and for each state it's pretty much up to themselves
if they declare they are in a drought or not in a drought," he said.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>What
is a drought?<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>Martin,
California's drought coordinator, said her department does not have a precise
definition of drought. But in 2000, the department published a report on the
state's drought of 1987-92 and defined a "drought threshold."
According to the report, that threshold is determined by two factors:<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>--
Runoff for a single year or multiple years in the lowest 10 percent of the
historical range.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>--
Reservoir storage for the same time period at less than 70 percent of average.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>If
those two factors were considered today, there would be little to dispute.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>The
National Weather Service's California Nevada River Forecast Center predicts
that runoff for most rivers will be above 100 percent of average, and rivers
that feed the state's major reservoirs will all be well above average.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>Reservoirs
in the state are at 96 percent of average for this time of year, according to
the Department of Water Resources. <o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>But
Martin said the department criteria are 10 years old and there are other
factors to consider: the effects of climate change are becoming more acute and
water demand is increasing because the state's population grew by 10 million
people in the past decade. U.S. Census Bureau figures, however, show the
state's population grew by about 3.1 million in the past decade.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>Nonetheless,
Martin said, California is a big and complex state and, "people want to
generalize things, but they don't lend to being generalized very well." <o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>Water
officials also are concerned that declaring an end to the drought could lead to
a drop-off in conservation efforts by Californians, and the extra water could
be needed if next year is dry.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>Schwarzenegger's
drought declaration includes orders for the state water department to work with
local agencies on measures such as fast-tracking water-conservation grants and
improving landscape and agriculture water efficiency and leak monitoring. It
also calls for "aggressive and immediate action" to reduce water
consumption.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>But
because of the high levels in the reservoirs, many water agencies in the state
are reassessing their need for mandatory conservation, according to the
Association of California Water Agencies.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>The
East Bay Municipal Utilities District ended its call for voluntary rationing
last month. Los Angeles still faces mandatory rationing, but an official at the
Metropolitan Water District - which supplies water to 26 agencies in Southern
California, including Los Angeles, and gets water from Northern California -
said restrictions on pumping in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta is the
main factor for shortages this year.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>Those
restrictions could be extended because of environmental concerns in the delta,
and water officials say that is likely to be the new normal.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>UC
Davis Professor Jay Lund, who is director of the Center for Watershed Sciences
there, said the state is "not unambiguously out of drought and we're not
unambiguously in a drought," adding that it will depend on whether next
year is wet again.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>He
agreed with water department officials that it can be problematic to talk about
drought in broad strokes.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>"Drought
is in the thirst of the beholder," he said.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>When
he declared the drought in 2008, Schwarzenegger - who had long before promised
to overhaul the state's water infrastructure - said, "We must work
together to ensure that California will have safe, reliable and clean water not
only today but 20, 30 and 40 years from now." <o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>The
bond proposal that will appear on November's ballot is titled the Safe and
Reliable Clean Water Drinking Act of 2010. It needs a simple majority to pass.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>On
Wednesday, the campaign to promote the bond issued a news release on why it is
critical for voters to approve the measure. Cited, among other reasons, was
that California faces severely limited supplies of water that have worsened
after three years of drought.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><i><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:gray'>Byron
Leydecker, JcT</span></i><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><i><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:gray'>Chair, Friends
of Trinity River</span></i><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><i><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:gray'>PO Box 2327</span></i><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><i><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:gray'>Mill Valley, CA
94942-2327</span></i><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><i><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:gray'>415 383 4810
land/fax (call first to fax)</span></i><span style='font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><i><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:gray'>415 519 4810
mobile</span></i><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><i><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:gray'><a
href="mailto:bwl3@comcast.net"><span style='color:blue'>bwl3@comcast.net</span></a></span></i></b><b><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><i><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:gray'><a
href="mailto:bleydecker@stanfordalumni.org"><span style='color:blue'>bleydecker@stanfordalumni.org</span></a>
</span></i></b><i><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:gray'>(secondary)</span></i><b><span
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href="http://fotr.org/"><span style='color:blue'>http://www.fotr.org</span></a>
</span></i></b><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
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