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<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family:
"Tahoma","sans-serif";">Fewer job
losses linked to Delta, drought</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family:
"Tahoma","sans-serif";">Contra
Costa Times-9/29/10</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family:
"Tahoma","sans-serif";">By Mike
Taugher </span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family:
"Tahoma","sans-serif";"> </span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">A jobs plan that is part of Meg Whitman's
gubernatorial
campaign suggests that drought and Delta pumping restrictions
might have cost
California 95,000 jobs.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Senate candidate Carly Fiorina puts the number
at 40,000. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Both are relying on early and outdated economic
forecasts of
what might have happened in 2009. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Now, the economist who developed those numbers
and his
toughest academic critic have joined together in a report that
tries to
determine what actually transpired.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Their conclusions: Those estimates of lost jobs
are far too
high. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Between 5,500 and 7,500 jobs were lost due to
water
shortages in the San Joaquin Valley last year, and most of the
blame goes to
the weather, not to environmental protection. One of the
economists put the job
loss attributable to environmental protections at 1,400 jobs and
the other put
the figure closer to 3,000 jobs.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">By comparison, one of the report's authors said
the housing
downturn cost the region 76,000 construction-related jobs.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">"Sure, the 2.5 percent decline in crop
production had
an impact, but the 90 percent decline in home production and the
more than 50
percent decline in nonresidential construction had a much bigger
impact,"
said Jeffrey Michael, director of the Business Forecasting Center
at the
University of Pacific.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The Delta's problems captured national
attention last year
as drought and new restrictions on water pumping combined to cut
supplies to
farms and cities </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">that had been taking record amounts of water
out of a
collapsing Delta.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Despite the fact that drought was causing most
of the
shortages, talk show hosts and politicians took to blaming new
court-ordered
restrictions meant to prevent Delta smelt from going extinct.
Protests were
held in the hardest hit area -- the San Joaquin Valley's west side
-- where
bitter complaints were heard about fish being favored over jobs.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">In early 2009, UC Davis economist Richard
Howitt tried to
predict the economic impact the drought and new restrictions on
Delta pumping
would have on San Joaquin Valley farms.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">His first attempt resulted in a forecast that
95,000 jobs
might be lost, but he revised that figure downward a number of
times in
response to much lower numbers put forward by Michael.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">"Yes, it's a problem when candidates don't use
the most
recent and accurate figures," Howitt said in an e-mail. "I have
tried
to correct this, but this combined report should help put some of
the outdated
values to rest."</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Whitman and Fiorina's opponents -- state
Attorney General
Jerry Brown and incumbent U.S. Sen. Barbara Boxer, respectively --
also have
made references to problems in the Delta but they do not appear to
have used
the high job loss estimates as part of their campaigns. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The economists said the impact was concentrated
in western
Fresno, Kern and Kings counties, regions served largely by the
nation's largest
federal water district, the Westlands Water District, and the
State Water
Project's second largest customer behind Southern California, the
Kern County
Water Agency. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Howitt noted that economic impact was indeed
severe in those
regions but that voluntary sales among big water users
significantly blunted
the effects of shortages.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">"Despite this, a 10 percent reduction in jobs
is a
severe impact for farmworkers on the west side," he said.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The economists used different methods for
determining the
actual impact of the drought and the new Delta pumping
restrictions, but came
up with numbers that were close.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Michael estimated water shortages caused farm
revenues to
decline by $340 million while Howitt put the figure at $370
million. In both
cases, the figures represent a lot of money, but less than a 3
percent decline
in San Joaquin Valley farm revenues.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Michael put the job losses due to environmental
protections
at 1,400 while Howitt estimated 3,000.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">If Michael's figure is correct, the number of
farmworkers
who lost their jobs due to environmental protection would be fewer
than the
1,800 fishing jobs he estimates were lost in each of the last two
years due to
the collapse in California's commercial salmon. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The San Joaquin Valley has been battered by
chronic
unemployment and the evaporation of the housing market, problems
that dwarf the
losses incurred by drought and recent environmental protections
intended to
prevent Delta fish from going extinct, he said.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">"This valley has incredible problems, but our
leaders
are completely consumed with this one issue," Michael said.#</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<a href="http://www.contracostatimes.com/top-stories/ci_16208283">http://www.contracostatimes.com/top-stories/ci_16208283</a>
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