<html xmlns:v="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:vml" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" xmlns:w="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:word" xmlns:x="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:excel" xmlns:p="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:powerpoint" xmlns:a="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:access" xmlns:dt="uuid:C2F41010-65B3-11d1-A29F-00AA00C14882" xmlns:s="uuid:BDC6E3F0-6DA3-11d1-A2A3-00AA00C14882" xmlns:rs="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:rowset" xmlns:z="#RowsetSchema" xmlns:b="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:publisher" xmlns:ss="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:spreadsheet" xmlns:c="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:component:spreadsheet" xmlns:odc="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:odc" xmlns:oa="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:activation" xmlns:html="http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40" xmlns:q="http://schemas.xmlsoap.org/soap/envelope/" xmlns:rtc="http://microsoft.com/officenet/conferencing" xmlns:D="DAV:" xmlns:Repl="http://schemas.microsoft.com/repl/" xmlns:mt="http://schemas.microsoft.com/sharepoint/soap/meetings/" xmlns:x2="http://schemas.microsoft.com/office/excel/2003/xml" xmlns:ppda="http://www.passport.com/NameSpace.xsd" xmlns:ois="http://schemas.microsoft.com/sharepoint/soap/ois/" xmlns:dir="http://schemas.microsoft.com/sharepoint/soap/directory/" xmlns:ds="http://www.w3.org/2000/09/xmldsig#" xmlns:dsp="http://schemas.microsoft.com/sharepoint/dsp" xmlns:udc="http://schemas.microsoft.com/data/udc" xmlns:xsd="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema" xmlns:sub="http://schemas.microsoft.com/sharepoint/soap/2002/1/alerts/" xmlns:ec="http://www.w3.org/2001/04/xmlenc#" xmlns:sp="http://schemas.microsoft.com/sharepoint/" xmlns:sps="http://schemas.microsoft.com/sharepoint/soap/" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xmlns:udcs="http://schemas.microsoft.com/data/udc/soap" xmlns:udcxf="http://schemas.microsoft.com/data/udc/xmlfile" xmlns:udcp2p="http://schemas.microsoft.com/data/udc/parttopart" xmlns:wf="http://schemas.microsoft.com/sharepoint/soap/workflow/" xmlns:dsss="http://schemas.microsoft.com/office/2006/digsig-setup" xmlns:dssi="http://schemas.microsoft.com/office/2006/digsig" xmlns:mdssi="http://schemas.openxmlformats.org/package/2006/digital-signature" xmlns:mver="http://schemas.openxmlformats.org/markup-compatibility/2006" xmlns:m="http://schemas.microsoft.com/office/2004/12/omml" xmlns:mrels="http://schemas.openxmlformats.org/package/2006/relationships" xmlns:spwp="http://microsoft.com/sharepoint/webpartpages" xmlns:ex12t="http://schemas.microsoft.com/exchange/services/2006/types" xmlns:ex12m="http://schemas.microsoft.com/exchange/services/2006/messages" xmlns:pptsl="http://schemas.microsoft.com/sharepoint/soap/SlideLibrary/" xmlns:spsl="http://microsoft.com/webservices/SharePointPortalServer/PublishedLinksService" xmlns:Z="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:" xmlns:st="" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40">
<head>
<meta http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=us-ascii">
<meta name=Generator content="Microsoft Word 12 (filtered medium)">
<!--[if !mso]>
<style>
v\:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}
o\:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}
w\:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}
.shape {behavior:url(#default#VML);}
</style>
<![endif]-->
<style>
<!--
/* Font Definitions */
@font-face
{font-family:Wingdings;
panose-1:5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0;}
@font-face
{font-family:"Cambria Math";
panose-1:2 4 5 3 5 4 6 3 2 4;}
@font-face
{font-family:Calibri;
panose-1:2 15 5 2 2 2 4 3 2 4;}
@font-face
{font-family:Tahoma;
panose-1:2 11 6 4 3 5 4 4 2 4;}
@font-face
{font-family:"Trebuchet MS";
panose-1:2 11 6 3 2 2 2 2 2 4;}
/* Style Definitions */
p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal
{margin:0in;
margin-bottom:.0001pt;
font-size:11.0pt;
font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";}
h1
{mso-style-priority:9;
mso-style-link:"Heading 1 Char";
mso-margin-top-alt:auto;
margin-right:0in;
mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
margin-left:0in;
font-size:24.0pt;
font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";}
h2
{mso-style-priority:9;
mso-style-link:"Heading 2 Char";
mso-margin-top-alt:auto;
margin-right:0in;
mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
margin-left:0in;
font-size:18.0pt;
font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";}
a:link, span.MsoHyperlink
{mso-style-priority:99;
color:blue;
text-decoration:underline;}
a:visited, span.MsoHyperlinkFollowed
{mso-style-priority:99;
color:purple;
text-decoration:underline;}
p.MsoAcetate, li.MsoAcetate, div.MsoAcetate
{mso-style-priority:99;
mso-style-link:"Balloon Text Char";
margin:0in;
margin-bottom:.0001pt;
font-size:8.0pt;
font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif";}
span.EmailStyle17
{mso-style-type:personal-compose;
font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";
color:windowtext;
font-weight:bold;}
span.Heading1Char
{mso-style-name:"Heading 1 Char";
mso-style-priority:9;
mso-style-link:"Heading 1";
font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";
font-weight:bold;}
span.Heading2Char
{mso-style-name:"Heading 2 Char";
mso-style-priority:9;
mso-style-link:"Heading 2";
font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";
font-weight:bold;}
p.inlinemenu, li.inlinemenu, div.inlinemenu
{mso-style-name:inlinemenu;
mso-margin-top-alt:auto;
margin-right:0in;
mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
margin-left:0in;
font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";}
span.BalloonTextChar
{mso-style-name:"Balloon Text Char";
mso-style-priority:99;
mso-style-link:"Balloon Text";
font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif";}
.MsoChpDefault
{mso-style-type:export-only;}
@page WordSection1
{size:8.5in 11.0in;
margin:1.0in 1.0in 1.0in 1.0in;}
div.WordSection1
{page:WordSection1;}
/* List Definitions */
@list l0
{mso-list-id:1038503821;
mso-list-template-ids:751092938;}
@list l0:level1
{mso-level-number-format:bullet;
mso-level-text:\F0B7;
mso-level-tab-stop:.5in;
mso-level-number-position:left;
text-indent:-.25in;
mso-ansi-font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Symbol;}
ol
{margin-bottom:0in;}
ul
{margin-bottom:0in;}
-->
</style>
<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<o:shapedefaults v:ext="edit" spidmax="2050" />
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<o:shapelayout v:ext="edit">
<o:idmap v:ext="edit" data="1" />
</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]-->
</head>
<body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple>
<div class=WordSection1>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:9.5pt;color:black'><img width=396
height=60 id="Picture_x0020_13" src="cid:image004.gif@01CB60BB.2B01A4F0"
alt="San Francisco Chronicle"></span><span style='font-size:9.5pt;color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:9.5pt;color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:9.5pt;color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><a
href="http://us.ard.yahoo.com/SIG=163u7cdn3/M=600876506.601020598.410280393.410093825/D=ncnws/S=2022775850:AP107/Y=PARTNER_US/L=3e7e11b4-cce8-11df-996f-77d5b308cb5d/B=uqIdDGKIDKQ-/J=1285888369790131/K=ebQ3_6ypKMWxSoqMvIq8NQ/EXP=1285895569/A=1762140870526144370/R=0/X=2/SIG=1160hgmlo/*http:/www.sfgate.com/sundaycontent/"
target="_top"><span style='font-size:9.5pt;color:#015660;text-decoration:none'><img
border=0 width=950 height=30 id="Picture_x0020_2"
src="cid:image001.jpg@01CB60BA.F7DD7360" alt="click here"></span></a><span
style='font-size:9.5pt;color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:9.5pt;color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><a href="http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/blogs/gleick/index"><span
style='font-size:9.5pt;color:blue;text-decoration:none'><img border=0
width=120 height=120 id="Picture_x0020_3"
src="cid:image002.jpg@01CB60BA.F7DD7360"
alt="http://cdn.sfgate.com/graphics/blogs/luminaries/gleick.jpg"></span></a><span
style='font-size:9.5pt;color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:9.5pt;color:black'><a
href="http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/blogs/gleick/index"><span style='font-size:
22.5pt;font-family:"Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";color:white;text-decoration:
none'>Dr. Peter Gleick</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:black'>President,
Pacific Institute<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:9.5pt;color:black;display:none'>Anyone
who pays attention to water in California knows that the state is just getting
over (we hope) a serious three-year drought. And anyone who pays attention to
water in California knows that the...<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:9.5pt;color:black;display:none'>Misusing
California water numbers for political purposes: Jobs, fish, and lies<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<h2><a name="entry_id_73561"></a><span style='color:black'>Misusing California
water numbers for political purposes: Jobs, fish, and lies<o:p></o:p></span></h2>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><b><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;color:black'>Anyone who pays attention to water in
California knows that the state is just getting over (we hope) a serious
three-year drought. And anyone who pays attention to water in California knows
that the drought led to very serious political posturing, arguing, and drama,
especially in the Central Valley.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><b><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;color:black'>Indeed, the drought became a cause celebre
for some on the right, Central Valley Tea Partiers, and talk show
conservatives, who used it as an excuse to launch a full-scale assault on the
environment of the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, legal decisions to restore
small amounts of water to dried-up rivers, and the Endangered Species Act. Late
last summer, Sean Hannity came and held a rally to argue that the drought was
caused by politics, not weather, that tens of thousands of farm jobs had been
lost because of environmental restrictions, and that the agricultural
communities of the Central Valley were being destroyed by efforts to save fish,
especially a small fish called the Delta Smelt, from extinction. The problem,
they said over and over, was we had to choose "fish versus jobs."<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><b><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;color:black'>Most of what Hannity and other speakers at
that rally said was wrong or misleading, but the two most important pieces
picked up and repeated over and over by the media were the arguments that (1)
the drought was caused by human decisions, rather than the weather (doubly
ironic since these same groups consistently argue that humans cannot be causing
climate change), and (2) it had led to massive job losses in the agricultural
sector. The two major Republican candidates for Senate and Governor in
California continue to use these arguments in their water policy
pronouncements. <o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><strong><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black'>The problem
is that both claims are false</span></strong><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
color:black'>. It was apparent, even then, that these arguments were at best
partial truths twisted around a core of lies, and I wrote a <a
href="http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/blogs/gleick/detail?entry_id=45349"
target="_blank">previous SFGate post</a> about this in August 2009. But <a
href="http://forecast.pacific.edu/water-jobs/SJV_Rev_Jobs_2009_092810.pdf"
target="_blank">new evidence </a>now shows clearly how false those claims were.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><b><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;color:black'>What's the real story? A <a
href="http://www.contracostatimes.com/top-stories/ci_16208283" target="_blank">superb
article </a>written by reporter Mike Taugher, pulls it all together.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><b><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;color:black'>In early 2009, Professor Richard Howitt, a
UC Davis agricultural economist, tried to predict the economic impact the
natural drought and new legal restrictions on Delta pumping would have on San
Joaquin Valley farms. His earliest estimate was that these water problems might
cost California around 95,000 jobs. Around the same time, Dr. Jeffrey Michael,
director of the Business Forecasting Center at the University of Pacific did <a
href="http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/blogs/gleick/detail?entry_id=45349"
target="_blank">a separate estimate</a>, and came up with a far lower number.
After the two of them began comparing notes, assumptions, and data, Dr. Howitt
revised his figure downward several times. His first estimate, however, was
like throwing red meat to lions, and Hannity and others picked it up and, to
this day, continue to use it. A jobs plan that is part of Meg Whitman's
gubernatorial campaign is <a
href="http://www.news.ucdavis.edu/in_the_news/full_text/view_clip.lasso?id=32540"
target="_blank">still arguing </a>that the drought and Delta pumping
restrictions might have cost California 95,000 jobs. Senate candidate Carly
Fiorina <a href="http://www.contracostatimes.com/top-stories/ci_16208283"
target="_blank">puts the number at 40,000 </a>using other outdated and
inaccurate numbers. <o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><b><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;color:black'>Howitt and Michaels, in an open and
remarkable academic collaboration, have gotten together and produced <a
href="http://forecast.pacific.edu/water-jobs/SJV_Rev_Jobs_2009_092810.pdf"
target="_blank">a joint analysis</a>. Their conclusions?<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><b><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;color:black'>The early estimates of lost jobs were far,
far too high. They now say that between 5,500 and 7,500 jobs were lost due to the
water availability constraints in the San Joaquin Valley last year, and equally
importantly, most of the blame goes to the weather, NOT to environmental
protections. Indeed, while some individual farmers and water districts with
junior water rights suffered serious impacts, the agricultural sector of the
state as a whole, has had pretty good years even with the drought, because of
water transfers, temporary use of groundwater, improved efficiency, high prices
for some crops, and other adjustments. <o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><strong><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black;
background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow'>Water Numbers: 1,400 to 3,000 jobs (not
95,000 or 40,000).</span></strong><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:black'> <b>What
do the economists now think the actual impacts were? One of the economists put
the job loss attributable to environmental protections at 1,400 jobs; the other
(using different assumptions and estimates) put the figure closer to 3,000
jobs. Not 95,000. Not 40,000. In comparison, the economic recession cost the
region 76,000 construction-related jobs.</b><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:9.5pt;color:black'><img border=0
width=300 height=214 id="Picture_x0020_6"
src="cid:image003.jpg@01CB60BA.F7DD7360"
alt="Watering turf grass in the San Joaquin Valley, summer 2008."></span><span
style='font-size:9.5pt;color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span
style='font-size:10.5pt;color:black'>(c) Peter Gleick 2008<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><b><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;color:black'>Watering turf grass in the San Joaquin
Valley, summer 2008.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><b><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;color:black'>Even more ironically, taking water from
the environment and the fish costs jobs too, though we've traditionally ignored
or failed to estimate these costs. Economist Michaels <a
href="http://www.contracostatimes.com/top-stories/ci_16208283" target="_blank">estimates
</a>that 1,800 jobs have been lost by the commercial salmon industry due to the
ecological destruction of the fisheries because of water withdrawals and other
problems in the Delta -- similar to the number of jobs lost to farmers. That
shows some of the potential benefits of delivering a little water to the
environment to restore healthy fisheries.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><b><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;color:black'>As for the politicians, will they change
their numbers, websites, and rhetoric? Will they step up for the environment
and the salmon fishermen? Professor Howitt said in an email to reporter Mike
Taugher, "Yes, it's a problem when candidates don't use the most recent
and accurate figures... I have tried to correct this, but this combined report
should help put some of the outdated values to rest."<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><b><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;color:black'>Do certain politicians and talk show hosts
care about facts, even when they are inconvenient? Will they correct their
positions, or will incorrect numbers continue to be used to drive a political
agenda? We'll see.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><b><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;color:black'>Peter Gleick<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><b><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;color:black'><a href="http://www.pacinst.org/"
target="_blank">Pacific Institute</a><br>
Read more: <a
href="http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/blogs/gleick/detail?entry_id=73561#ixzz113dDoGR3"><span
style='color:#003399'>http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/blogs/gleick/detail?entry_id=73561#ixzz113dDoGR3</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><i><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";
color:#948A54'>Byron Leydecker, JcT<o:p></o:p></span></i></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><i><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";
color:#948A54'>Chair, Friends of Trinity River<o:p></o:p></span></i></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><i><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";
color:#948A54'>PO Box 2327<o:p></o:p></span></i></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><i><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";
color:#948A54'>Mill Valley, CA 94942-2327<o:p></o:p></span></i></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><i><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";
color:#948A54'>415 383 4810 land/fax<o:p></o:p></span></i></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><i><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";
color:#948A54'>415 519 4810 mobile<o:p></o:p></span></i></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><i><u><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";
color:#4F81BD'>bwl3@comcast.net <o:p></o:p></span></u></i></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><i><u><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";
color:#4F81BD'>bleydecker@stanfordalumni.org <o:p></o:p></span></u></i></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><i><u><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";
color:#4F81BD'>http://www.fotr.org<o:p></o:p></span></u></i></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
</body>
</html>