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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple><div class=WordSection1><table class=MsoNormalTable border=0 cellspacing=0 cellpadding=0 width="100%" style='width:100.0%'><tr><td valign=top style='padding:0in 0in 0in 0in'></td></tr><tr><td valign=top style='padding:0in 0in 0in 0in'><h1><a name=top></a><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana","sans-serif";color:black'>UC expert compares problems in the Delta to New Orleans before Hurricane Katrina.<o:p></o:p></span></h1><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:7.5pt;font-family:"Verdana","sans-serif";color:black'><a href="mailto:mtaugher@bayareanewsgroup.com?subject=ContraCostaTimes.com:%20UC%20expert%20compares%20problems%20in%20the%20Delta%20to%20New%20Orleans%20before%20Hurricane%20Katrina."><span style='color:black'>By Mike Taugher<br>Contra Costa Times</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:7.5pt;font-family:"Verdana","sans-serif";color:#000088'>Posted: 01/19/2011 04:05:59 PM PST<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:7.5pt;font-family:"Verdana","sans-serif";color:#000088'>Updated: 01/20/2011 06:17:04 AM PST<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><br><br><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='background:#666666'><span style='font-size:7.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:white;background:#7F7F7F'>Click photo to enlarge</span><span style='font-size:7.5pt;font-family:"Verdana","sans-serif";color:black'> <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;background:#666666;vertical-align:middle'><a href="http://www.contracostatimes.com/portlet/article/html/render_gallery.jsp?articleId=17139680&siteId=571&startImage=1" target="_new" id="gallery_link"><span style='font-size:7.5pt;font-family:"Verdana","sans-serif";color:blue;text-decoration:none'><img border=0 width=200 height=112 id=image src="cid:image010.jpg@01CBB8BA.917605D0" alt="http://extras.mnginteractive.com/live/media/site568/2011/0119/20110119__levee~1_VIEWER.JPG"></span></a><span style='font-size:7.5pt;font-family:"Verdana","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='font-size:7.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>An excavator tractor working for the Department of Water Resources works on... ( JIM STEVENS )<o:p></o:p></span></p><div style='mso-element:para-border-div;border:none;border-right:solid black 1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 0in;background:#999999;margin-left:-.25in;margin-right:0in'><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.25in;text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l1 level1 lfo3;background:#999999;border:none;padding:0in'><![if !supportLists]><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Symbol;color:black'><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>·<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'> </span></span></span><![endif]><span style='font-size:7.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><a href="http://www.contracostatimes.com/environment/ci_17139680?nclick_check=1" id="button_previous"><span style='color:#333333;border:none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in'>«</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.25in;text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l1 level1 lfo3;background:#CCCCCC;border:none;padding:0in'><![if !supportLists]><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Symbol;color:black'><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>·<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'> </span></span></span><![endif]><span style='font-size:7.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#666666'><a href="http://www.contracostatimes.com/environment/ci_17139680?nclick_check=1" id=link1><span style='color:#333333'>1</span></a></span><span style='font-size:7.5pt;font-family:"Verdana","sans-serif";color:black'><img border=0 width=200 height=112 id="Picture_x0020_42" src="cid:image010.jpg@01CBB8BA.917605D0" alt="http://extras.mnginteractive.com/live/media/site568/2011/0119/20110119__levee~1_VIEWER.JPG"><img border=0 width=200 height=113 id="Picture_x0020_43" src="cid:image011.jpg@01CBB8BA.917605D0" alt="http://extras.mnginteractive.com/live/media/site568/2011/0119/20110119__levee~2_VIEWER.JPG"><img border=0 width=200 height=134 id="Picture_x0020_44" src="cid:image012.jpg@01CBB8BA.917605D0" alt="http://extras.mnginteractive.com/live/media/site568/2011/0119/20110119__levee~3_VIEWER.JPG"></span><span style='font-size:7.5pt;font-family:"Verdana","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p></div><p class=bodytext><b><span style='color:black'>Bob Bea has investigated such high-profile disasters as the Exxon Valdez spill, the Deepwater Horizon blast, Hurricane Katrina and the space shuttle Columbia, which exploded in 2003.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p><b><span style='color:black'>But the UC engineer and associate director of the Center for Catastrophic Risk Management says the problems looming in the Delta dwarf the others because of the vulnerability of levees and the threat that poses to drinking water, power, transportation and other infrastructure.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p><b><span style='color:black'>"It's the worst damn mess I've ever seen, and I've seen some pretty bad ones," Bea told a Contra Costa water task force in Pleasant Hill on Wednesday.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p><b><span style='color:black'>The problem is not just the conflict between the Delta's ecosystem and the demand for water. It is flood safety and the risks that levee failure poses to a web of aqueducts, power lines, telecommunications, highways and rail lines.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p><b><span style='color:black'>The levees and other infrastructure are getting older, the risks are getting larger and no one seems to know how to untangle the "Gordian knot."<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p><b><span style='color:black'>"We've got this infrastructure that is powering a very critical economic engine," Bea said, adding that the Delta is on a "roadmap to disaster."<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p><b><span style='color:black'>Bea and a team of researchers are about halfway through a four-year study of how to assess and manage threats in the Delta, which touches five counties and provides a portion of water for two-thirds of Californians.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p><b><span style='color:black'>The most immediate thing that can be done is to get the operators of the Delta's aqueducts, power lines, railroads and highways communicating better now so that the response in an emergency will be smoother, said Bea's colleague, Emery Roe, a policy analyst at UC and Mills College. <o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p><b><span style='color:black'>Some of those who attended the meeting, hosted by the Contra Costa Council's water task force, questioned whether the Delta's levees are really that fragile. Many of the region's levees date to the Gold Rush and they could fail in a large earthquake or flood, allowing water to rush into the farms and developments built below sea level and contaminate drinking water with salt water from San Francisco Bay.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p><b><span style='color:black'>Previous studies on the Delta's levees have been hurried or were susceptible to political pressure, a few levee engineers said. <o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p><b><span style='color:black'>Many Delta residents contend state government has a political interest in making the levees appear vulnerable because that boosts the argument for a peripheral canal or tunnels to divert water around the area. If a canal or tunnels were built, a levee failure might no longer cause seawater to intrude into drinking water supplies, although flooding would still inundate farms and, potentially, houses.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p><b><span style='color:black'>Bea agreed many previous studies were flawed, but added that he had yet to see an analysis that showed there is no problem in the Delta.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p><b><span style='color:black'>The risk of flooding, he contends, is great. And like New Orleans before Hurricane Katrina, Delta experts know about the problems while little is getting done to address them.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p><b><span style='color:black'>There are two basic ways to cope, Bea said. California can adopt a "stand and fight" approach to maintain and repair levees or it can adopt a "strategic retreat" in which highways, railroads, aqueducts and power lines are gradually moved out of harm's way. When the Delta's bowl-like islands are flooded, perhaps they could be left that way.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p><b><span style='color:black'>Neither of those approaches, however, provides a clear way to address the Delta's fundamental conflict between water supplies and its ecosystem. A canal or tunnel to move water outside the levee-lined channels would come with its own risks, Bea said.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p><b><span style='color:black'>"The water (issue) is the devil we can't see through yet," Bea said.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p></td></tr></table><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><i><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";color:gray'>Byron Leydecker, JcT</span></i></b><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><i><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";color:gray'>Chair, Friends of Trinity River</span></i></b><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><i><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";color:gray'>PO Box 2327</span></i></b><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><i><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";color:gray'>Mill Valley, CA 94942-2327</span></i></b><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><i><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";color:gray'>415 383 4810 land</span></i></b><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><i><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";color:gray'>415 519 4810 mobile</span></i></b><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><i><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";color:gray'><a href="mailto:bwl3@comcast.net"><span style='color:blue'>bwl3@comcast.net</span></a></span></i></b><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><i><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";color:gray'><a href="mailto:bleydecker@stanfordalumni.org"><span style='color:blue'>bleydecker@stanfordalumni.org</span></a> (secondary)</span></i></b><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><i><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";color:gray'><a href="http://fotr.org/"><span style='color:blue'>http://www.fotr.org</span></a> </span></i></b><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'> <o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'> </span></b><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p></div></body></html>