<html><body><div style="color:#000; background-color:#fff; font-family:times new roman, new york, times, serif;font-size:12pt"><div>http://www.sacbee.com/2013/11/29/5956742/dry-winter-ahead-states-experimental.html <br></div><div style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px; font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york', times, serif; background-color: transparent; font-style: normal; ">
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:none;mso-layout-grid-align:none;
text-autospace:none"><b><span style="font-size:26.0pt;font-family:Arial;
color:#083970">Dry winter ahead, state’s experimental forecast warns<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:none;mso-layout-grid-align:none;
text-autospace:none"><b><span style="font-size:20.0pt;font-family:Arial;
color:#646464"><o:p> </o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:none;mso-layout-grid-align:none;
text-autospace:none"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial">By <a href="http://www.sacbee.com/search_results/?sf_pubsys_story_byline=Matt%20Weiser&link_location=top"><span style="color:#083970;text-decoration:none;text-underline:none">Matt Weiser</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:none;mso-layout-grid-align:none;
text-autospace:none"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial"><a href="mailto:mweiser@sacbee.com"><span style="color:#083970;text-decoration:
none;text-underline:none">mweiser@sacbee.com</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:none;mso-layout-grid-align:none;
text-autospace:none"><span style="font-family:Arial">Published: Friday, Nov.
29, 2013 - 1:20 pm<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:none;mso-layout-grid-align:none;
text-autospace:none"><span style="font-family:Arial">Last Modified: Saturday,
Nov. 30, 2013 - 12:31 pm<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:15.0pt;mso-pagination:none;mso-layout-grid-align:
none;text-autospace:none"><span style="font-size:15.0pt;font-family:Georgia;
mso-bidi-font-family:Georgia">Despite a hint of rain and snow in the forecast
next week, the Sacramento region and California as a whole can expect a third
dry winter ahead.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:15.0pt;mso-pagination:none;mso-layout-grid-align:
none;text-autospace:none"><span style="font-size:15.0pt;font-family:Georgia;
mso-bidi-font-family:Georgia">That’s according to an “experimental” long-range
forecast released this week by the <a href="http://topics.sacbee.com/California+Department+of+Water+Resources/"><span style="color:windowtext;text-decoration:none;text-underline:none">California
Department of Water Resources.</span></a> The forecast covers the 2014 water
year, which runs from Oct. 1, 2013, through Sept. 30, 2014. It calls for
“mostly dry conditions for most of California,” with dry conditions being
especially likely in the south state.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:15.0pt;mso-pagination:none;mso-layout-grid-align:
none;text-autospace:none"><span style="font-size:15.0pt;font-family:Georgia;
mso-bidi-font-family:Georgia">The forecast was done for the state by Klaus
Wolter, a Ph.D. meteorologist and research associate at the Cooperative
Institute for Research in <a href="http://topics.sacbee.com/Environmental+Sciences/"><span style="color:
#083970;text-decoration:none;text-underline:none">Environmental Sciences,</span></a>
at the <a href="http://topics.sacbee.com/University+of+Colorado/"><span style="color:windowtext;text-decoration:none;text-underline:none">University of
Colorado,</span></a> Boulder.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:15.0pt;mso-pagination:none;mso-layout-grid-align:
none;text-autospace:none"><span style="font-size:15.0pt;font-family:Georgia;
mso-bidi-font-family:Georgia">Wolter made a similar dry prediction for the
state last year, which at first appeared “destined for failure,” he said. That
was because December 2012 was extremely wet, partly due to the arrival of a
series of atmospheric river storms. Such storms tap into tropical moisture in
the far western <a href="http://topics.sacbee.com/Pacific+Ocean/"><span style="color:windowtext;text-decoration:none;text-underline:none">Pacific Ocean</span></a>
and channel it into a narrow stream often aimed like a <a href="http://topics.sacbee.com/fire+hose/"><span style="color:windowtext;
text-decoration:none;text-underline:none">fire hose</span></a> directly at
California.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:15.0pt;mso-pagination:none;mso-layout-grid-align:
none;text-autospace:none"><span style="font-size:15.0pt;font-family:Georgia;
mso-bidi-font-family:Georgia">“However, the remainder of the season was record
dry, producing an overall result of dry for the water year,” Wolter said in a
statement.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:15.0pt;mso-pagination:none;mso-layout-grid-align:
none;text-autospace:none"><span style="font-size:15.0pt;font-family:Georgia;
mso-bidi-font-family:Georgia">In a hint that suggests a similar outcome this
year, the near-term forecast calls for a major change in the weather for
Sacramento and <a href="http://topics.sacbee.com/Northern+California/"><span style="color:#083970;text-decoration:none;text-underline:none">Northern
California</span></a> on Monday. A storm is expected to drop out of the <a href="http://topics.sacbee.com/Pacific+Northwest/"><span style="color:#083970;
text-decoration:none;text-underline:none">Pacific Northwest,</span></a>
bringing a chance of rain to the Valley through Wednesday and snow in the <a href="http://topics.sacbee.com/Sierra+Nevada/"><span style="color:windowtext;
text-decoration:none;text-underline:none">Sierra Nevada</span></a> through
Thursday.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:15.0pt;mso-pagination:none;mso-layout-grid-align:
none;text-autospace:none"><span style="font-size:15.0pt;font-family:Georgia;
mso-bidi-font-family:Georgia">But don’t get too excited yet.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:15.0pt;mso-pagination:none;mso-layout-grid-align:
none;text-autospace:none"><span style="font-size:15.0pt;font-family:Georgia;
mso-bidi-font-family:Georgia">“It’s a fairly dry system, so it doesn’t look
like a whole lot,” said Craig Shoemaker, a meteorologist at the <a href="http://topics.sacbee.com/National+Weather+Service/"><span style="color:windowtext;text-decoration:none;text-underline:none">National
Weather Service</span></a> in Sacramento. “It doesn’t have a really deep
moisture plume.”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:15.0pt;mso-pagination:none;mso-layout-grid-align:
none;text-autospace:none"><span style="font-size:15.0pt;font-family:Georgia;
mso-bidi-font-family:Georgia">Temperatures are also predicted to drop sharply
with the storm. Overnight lows in Sacramento could get as cold as 34 degrees on
Wednesday night.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:15.0pt;mso-pagination:none;mso-layout-grid-align:
none;text-autospace:none"><span style="font-size:15.0pt;font-family:Georgia;
mso-bidi-font-family:Georgia">Shoemaker said the storm could generate as much
as 8 inches of new snow in the <a href="http://topics.sacbee.com/Sierra+Nevada/"><span style="color:windowtext;text-decoration:none;text-underline:none">Sierra
Nevada,</span></a> where most <a href="http://topics.sacbee.com/ski+resorts/"><span style="color:windowtext;text-decoration:none;text-underline:none">ski resorts</span></a>
still have limited terrain open, if they are open at all. The snow level could
drop as low as 2,000 feet on Tuesday night.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:15.0pt;mso-pagination:none;mso-layout-grid-align:
none;text-autospace:none"><span style="font-size:15.0pt;font-family:Georgia;
mso-bidi-font-family:Georgia">State officials intend the experimental forecast
to help residents, <a href="http://topics.sacbee.com/business+owners/"><span style="color:windowtext;text-decoration:none;text-underline:none">business
owners</span></a> and policymakers prepare for winter.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:15.0pt;mso-pagination:none;mso-layout-grid-align:
none;text-autospace:none"><span style="font-size:15.0pt;font-family:Georgia;
mso-bidi-font-family:Georgia">The <a href="http://topics.sacbee.com/National+Weather+Service/"><span style="color:windowtext;text-decoration:none;text-underline:none">National
Weather Service</span></a> typically does not make a detailed long-range winter
weather forecast. Its Climate Prediction Center, however, does offer a less
specific three-month forecast. The most recent, issued Nov. 21, indicated neither
wet nor dry conditions for California.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:15.0pt;mso-pagination:none;mso-layout-grid-align:
none;text-autospace:none"><span style="font-size:15.0pt;font-family:Georgia;
mso-bidi-font-family:Georgia">A third dry winter could have severe
implications, since most of the state’s water storage reservoirs are severely
depleted after two drought years. California is heavily dependent on winter
storms for the <a href="http://topics.sacbee.com/water+supply/"><span style="color:windowtext;text-decoration:none;text-underline:none">water supply</span></a>
it needs to survive summer. The state typically depends on just three months –
December through February – for half its annual precipitation, although freak
storms in other months can make a big difference,<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:15.0pt;mso-pagination:none;mso-layout-grid-align:
none;text-autospace:none"><span style="font-size:15.0pt;font-family:Georgia;
mso-bidi-font-family:Georgia">As for the winter ahead, state officials caution
the final outcome is difficult to predict, partly because neither El Niño nor
La Niña conditions dominate in the <a href="http://topics.sacbee.com/Pacific+Ocean/"><span style="color:windowtext;
text-decoration:none;text-underline:none">Pacific Ocean</span></a> this year.
The former condition indicates the ocean is warmer than average, while the
latter is cooler. A strong signal in either direction can make predictions
easier.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:15.0pt;mso-pagination:none;mso-layout-grid-align:
none;text-autospace:none"><span style="font-size:15.0pt;font-family:Georgia;
mso-bidi-font-family:Georgia">This winter, forecasters say the ocean will be in
a “neutral” condition, though Wolter said it could shift into an El Niño
pattern by springtime.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:7.0pt;mso-pagination:none;mso-layout-grid-align:
none;text-autospace:none"><span style="font-size:15.0pt;font-family:Georgia;
mso-bidi-font-family:Georgia"><o:p> </o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:15.0pt;mso-pagination:none;mso-layout-grid-align:
none;text-autospace:none"><i><span style="font-size:15.0pt;font-family:Georgia;
mso-bidi-font-family:Georgia">Call The Bee’s Matt Weiser at (916)321-1264.
Follow him on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/matt_weiser"><span style="color:#083970;text-decoration:none;text-underline:none">@matt_weiser</span></a>.</span></i><span style="font-size:15.0pt;font-family:Georgia;mso-bidi-font-family:Georgia"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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