<html><body><div style="color:#000; background-color:#fff; font-family:garamond, new york, times, serif;font-size:16px"><div id="yui_3_16_0_1_1428355016959_132917"><a href="http://valleyecon.blogspot.com/2015/03/new-data-shows-surprisingly-small.html" id="yui_3_16_0_1_1428355016959_132932">http://valleyecon.blogspot.com/2015/03/new-data-shows-surprisingly-small.html</a><br></div><div id="yui_3_16_0_1_1428355016959_132917" dir="ltr"><br></div><h2 class="" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 1em; position: relative; font-size: 14px; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; min-height: 0px;" id="yui_3_16_0_1_1428355016959_133075"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(7, 55, 99); padding: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; margin: inherit;" class="" id="yui_3_16_0_1_1428355016959_133074">Thursday, March 19, 2015</span></h2><div class="" style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19px;" id="yui_3_16_0_1_1428355016959_133062"><div class="" style="" id="yui_3_16_0_1_1428355016959_133061"><div class="" itemprop="blogPost" itemscope="itemscope" itemtype="http://schema.org/BlogPosting" style="position: relative; min-height: 0px; margin: 0px 0px 25px;" id="yui_3_16_0_1_1428355016959_133060"><a name="8759963329223159734" class="" style="" href=""></a><h3 class="" itemprop="name" style="margin-top: 0.75em; margin-bottom: 0px; position: relative; font-weight: normal; font-size: 22px; line-height: normal; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;" id="yui_3_16_0_1_1428355016959_133076">New Data Shows Surprisingly Small Impacts of Drought on Farm Employment</h3><div class="" style="line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 1.5em; font-size: 13px;"><div class="" style=""></div></div><div class="" id="post-body-8759963329223159734" itemprop="description articleBody" style="width: 640px; font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.4; position: relative;"><div class="" style="" id="yui_3_16_0_1_1428355016959_133118">While I have a long record of saying that drought impacts on the economy tend to be overblown, even I was surprised by the minimal drought impacts in the data released this morning.</div><div class="" style="" id="yui_3_16_0_1_1428355016959_133119"><br class="" style=""></div>The Bureau of Labor Statistics' Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages is the most reliable data on employment (it is a census of quarterly tax filings). <a href="http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cewqtr.nr0.htm" target="_blank" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(50, 7, 99);" class="">Data for the 3rd quarter of 2014 was released this morning</a>, representing the peak season for farm employment when drought impacts should be most evident. As shown in the table I compiled below, there is virtually no difference in farm employment between 2014 and 2013 in the 3 counties that are thought to be most devastated by the drought. (Jobs are listed under each month in the table, NAICS sector 11 is 99+% agriculture in these counties, the increase in total wages suggest decreased hours is not a big part of the explanation even though the minimum wage increased on July 1, 2014.)<br class="" style=""><div class="" style="" id="yui_3_16_0_1_1428355016959_133120"><br class="" style=""></div><div class="" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-f2_CvrjnXQA/VQsmv9MS2YI/AAAAAAAAAQQ/crNwvchV3Pk/s1600/Ag%2Bjobs%2B2014.png" imageanchor="1" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(50, 7, 99); margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;" class=""><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-f2_CvrjnXQA/VQsmv9MS2YI/AAAAAAAAAQQ/crNwvchV3Pk/s1600/Ag%2Bjobs%2B2014.png" height="348" width="640" style="border: 1px solid rgb(156, 156, 156); position: relative; padding: 5px; background-color: rgb(217, 234, 211); -webkit-box-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.0980392) 1px 1px 5px; box-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.0980392) 1px 1px 5px;" class="" data-id="f24d3799-fe31-5365-d61a-99713adbc64b"></a></div><div class="" style=""><br class="" style=""></div><div class="" style="">There is more data that needs to be compiled before jumping to conclusions, but I think it is important to get this information out there since the rhetoric on jobs, unemployment and water shortages is heating up again.</div><div class="" style=""><br class="" style=""></div><div class="" style="">In my view, the impacts of drought are much larger in environmental data such as plummeting fish abundance, than in jobs. I surprised a reporter earlier this week when I said that I thought the drought was a bigger environmental crisis than an economic one, and the recent data about 6 delta smelt found in the recent survey compared to virtually no change in agricultural jobs is an example.</div><div class="" style="" id="yui_3_16_0_1_1428355016959_133063"><br class="" style=""></div><div class="" style="" id="yui_3_16_0_1_1428355016959_133059">How to explain this? </div><div class="" style="" id="yui_3_16_0_1_1428355016959_133064"><br class="" style=""></div><div class="" style="" id="yui_3_16_0_1_1428355016959_133065">As I said, there is more data to sift through, but it is important to recognize that this drought is coming in the midst of a strong expansion period of Valley agriculture. The total number of acres irrigated and harvested has been growing every year for most of the past decade, even in the face of scarce surface water. Thus, in the absence of drought, I suspect 2014 employment would have been even higher. The drought is causing significant fallowing of relatively low value, and non-labor intensive field crops, while new acreage is coming into production by tapping groundwater. Thus, there are farmers laying people off, I don't think the farmers in news reports are lying. But clearly, there are others that were hiring. In other words, the baseline for agriculture activity is rising, <a href="http://valleyecon.blogspot.com/2014/04/the-baseline-for-drought-impacts-valley.html" target="_blank" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(50, 7, 99);" class="">as I discussed last spring in this post.</a> </div><div style="clear: both;" class=""></div></div><div class="" style="line-height: 1.6; margin: 20px -2px 0px; padding: 5px 10px; color: rgb(127, 127, 127); background-color: rgb(217, 234, 211); border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-color: rgb(127, 127, 127); font-size: 13px;"><div class="" style=""><span class="" style="margin-right: 1em; margin-left: 0px;">Posted by <span class="" itemprop="author" itemscope="itemscope" itemtype="http://schema.org/Person" style=""><a class="" href="http://www.blogger.com/profile/10344751623916759400" rel="author" title="author profile" data-gapiscan="true" data-onload="true" data-gapiattached="true" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(50, 7, 99);"><span itemprop="name" class="" style="">Jeff</span> </a></span></span><span class="" style="margin-right: 1em; margin-left: -1em;">at <a class="" href="http://valleyecon.blogspot.com/2015/03/new-data-shows-surprisingly-small.html" rel="bookmark" title="permanent link" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(50, 7, 99);"><abbr class="" itemprop="datePublished" title="2015-03-19T13:03:00-07:00" style="border: none;">1:03 PM</abbr></a> </span><span class="" style="margin-right: 1em;"></span><span class="" style="margin-right: 1em;"></span><div class="" style="display: inline-block; margin-top: 0.5em; vertical-align: middle; position: relative; margin-right: 1em;"><a class="" href="http://www.blogger.com/share-post.g?blogID=8236405782975490260&postID=8759963329223159734&target=email" target="_blank" title="Email This" style="width: 20px; height: 20px; overflow: hidden; margin-left: -1px; position: relative; background-image: url(https://www.blogger.com/img/share_buttons_20_3.png) !important; display: inline-block; text-decoration: none; color: rgb(50, 7, 99); background-position: 0px 0px !important; 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