<html><head></head><body><div style="color:#000; background-color:#fff; font-family:garamond, new york, times, serif;font-size:16px"><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1488859107776_61153" dir="ltr">Note: </div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1488859107776_61153" dir="ltr"><br></div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1488859107776_61153" dir="ltr">Studies by Tim Stoshane with the California Water Impact Network and Theodore Grantham/Joshua Viers at UC Davis found that consumptive water right claims in California are over five times the average annual surface water supply. Therefore, the drought is perpetual. </div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1488859107776_61153" dir="ltr"><br></div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1488859107776_61153" dir="ltr">As long as the Bureau of Reclamation, the Department of Water Resources and the State Water Resources Control Board allow water contracts and water rights in excess of the available water supply (paper water), there will always be a drought in California, no matter how much it rains. The whining will continue...</div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1488859107776_61153" dir="ltr"><br></div><div dir="ltr" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1488859107776_62474">Tom Stokely </div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1488859107776_62475">Salmon and Water Policy Analyst</div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1488859107776_62476">Pacific Coast Federation of Fishermen's Associations and </div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1488859107776_62477">Institute for Fisheries Resources</div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1488859107776_62478">530-524-0315 </div><div dir="ltr" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1488859107776_62479">tstokely@att.net </div><div style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; font-size: 58px; line-height: normal; font-family: Helvetica;" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1488859107776_61381"><span style="font-size: 51px; line-height: normal; -webkit-font-kerning: none; color: rgb(204, 204, 204);" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1488859107776_61382"><b id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1488859107776_61383">Op-Ed </b></span><span style="font-kerning: none" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1488859107776_61384">Our wild, wet winter doesn't change this reality — California will be short of water forever</span></div><div style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; font-size: 10px; line-height: normal; font-family: Times; background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); min-height: 13px;" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1488859107776_61385"><span style="font-kerning: none" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1488859107776_61386"></span><br id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1488859107776_61387"></div><div style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(153, 153, 153);" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1488859107776_61388"><span style="font-kerning: none" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1488859107776_61389">Sprinklers water a field in the early morning hours at the Tanimura & Antle Farm outside Salinas. (Los Angeles Times)</span></div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="margin-top: 15px; margin-bottom: 25px;" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1488859107776_61390">
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<div style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; font-size: 14px; line-height: normal; font-family: Georgia; color: rgb(255, 84, 67);" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1488859107776_61394"><span style="font-kerning: none" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1488859107776_61395"><b id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1488859107776_61396">Jay Famiglietti and Michelle Miro</b></span></div>
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</table><div style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; font-size: 10px; line-height: normal; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(102, 102, 102); min-height: 11px;" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1488859107776_61397"><span style="font-kerning: none" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1488859107776_61398"></span><br id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1488859107776_61399"></div><div style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; font-size: 18px; line-height: normal; font-family: Georgia; color: rgb(50, 51, 51);" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1488859107776_61400"><span style="font-kerning: none" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1488859107776_61401">Over the last 18 months, California has experienced one of the driest, wettest and wildest rides in its recorded water history.</span></div><div style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; font-size: 18px; line-height: normal; font-family: Georgia; color: rgb(50, 51, 51);" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1488859107776_61402"><span style="font-kerning: none" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1488859107776_61403">As the 2015-16 water year opened in October 2015, drought had driven the state’s reservoir and groundwater levels to all-time lows. Entire towns were left without water. Reports of lakes turned to puddles, of wells running dry by the thousands, and of the cracked ground above depleted aquifers sinking several feet a year dominated state headlines.</span></div><div style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; font-size: 18px; line-height: normal; font-family: Georgia; color: rgb(50, 51, 51);" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1488859107776_61404"><span style="font-kerning: none" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1488859107776_61405">Then came the deluge. Since last fall, a steady stream of “atmospheric river” storm systems has been battering the coast, the Sierra Nevada and almost everywhere in between, restoring reservoirs and the snowpack to their highest points in years.</span></div><div style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; font-size: 18px; line-height: normal; font-family: Georgia; color: rgb(50, 51, 51);" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1488859107776_61406"><span style="font-kerning: none" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1488859107776_61407">All winter, Californians have been asking one question: Is <a href="http://www.latimes.com/local/drought/" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1488859107776_61408"><span style="line-height: normal; -webkit-font-kerning: none; color: rgb(69, 145, 184);" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1488859107776_61409">the drought</span></a> finally over? The federal monitor shows just a few lingering tan and yellow patches in Southern California, but for scientists, the beginning and end of drought conditions are exceptionally difficult to pinpoint. Still, after only a few more serious encounters with the “Pineapple Express,” Gov. Jerry Brown may well declare the state’s 3-year drought emergency over.</span></div><div style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; font-size: 10px; line-height: normal; font-family: Times; min-height: 13px;" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1488859107776_61410"><span style="font-kerning: none" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1488859107776_61411"></span><br id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1488859107776_61412"></div><div style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; text-align: center; font-size: 28px; line-height: normal; font-family: Helvetica;" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1488859107776_61413"><span style="font-kerning: none" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1488859107776_61414"><b id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1488859107776_61415">The great thirst of our highly productive agricultural sector has never been and will never be satisfied by the annual winter storms.</b></span></div><div style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; text-align: center; font-size: 22px; line-height: normal; font-family: Helvetica; min-height: 26px;" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1488859107776_61416"><span style="font-kerning: none" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1488859107776_61417"></span><br id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1488859107776_61418"></div><div style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; font-size: 18px; line-height: normal; font-family: Georgia; color: rgb(50, 51, 51);" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1488859107776_61419"><span style="font-kerning: none" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1488859107776_61420">Which leads us to the second most frequently asked question of this unusually wet winter: What’s our water future? The answer has been clear for a while: It’s going to be a lot like our water past, but more so — California is, was and will be chronically water short.</span></div><div style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; font-size: 18px; line-height: normal; font-family: Georgia; color: rgb(50, 51, 51);" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1488859107776_61421"><span style="font-kerning: none" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1488859107776_61422">The drought has underlined three important realities that aren’t going to change.</span></div><div style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; font-size: 18px; line-height: normal; font-family: Georgia; color: rgb(50, 51, 51);" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1488859107776_61423"><span style="font-kerning: none" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1488859107776_61424">First, the way municipalities use water can be sustainable, even as their population grows, as long as they embrace conservation, water recycling and reuse, and a diverse portfolio of management options. However, agricultural water use at today’s scale in California is not sustainable. Agriculture is literally sucking the state dry.</span></div><div style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; font-size: 18px; line-height: normal; font-family: Georgia; color: rgb(50, 51, 51);" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1488859107776_61425"><span style="font-kerning: none" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1488859107776_61426">Food production requires nearly unfathomable volumes of water, and has resulted in the long-term decline of the total available fresh water in California. The great thirst of our highly productive agricultural sector has never been and will never be satisfied by the annual winter storms that feed the state’s rivers and reservoirs.</span></div><div style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; font-size: 10px; line-height: normal; font-family: Times; min-height: 13px;" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1488859107776_61427"><span style="font-kerning: none" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1488859107776_61428"></span><br id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1488859107776_61429"></div><div style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; font-size: 18px; line-height: normal; font-family: Georgia; color: rgb(50, 51, 51);" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1488859107776_61430"><span style="font-kerning: none" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1488859107776_61431">The shortfall is met by pumping groundwater at rates that greatly exceed those of replenishment. As a result, groundwater levels in much of the state, including the once-vast reserves beneath the Central Valley, have been declining for nearly a century.</span></div><div style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; font-size: 18px; line-height: normal; font-family: Georgia; color: rgb(50, 51, 51);" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1488859107776_61432"><span style="font-kerning: none" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1488859107776_61433">It is essential to understand that wet winters like the current one will not reverse this long-term decline. Historically, even the wettest multiyear periods result in only a modest uptick in the otherwise steady loss of Central Valley groundwater.</span></div><div style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; font-size: 18px; line-height: normal; font-family: Georgia; color: rgb(50, 51, 51);" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1488859107776_61434"><span style="font-kerning: none" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1488859107776_61435">Consequently, agriculture in California has to adapt to this dwindling supply. Farmers and ranchers will face more of the kinds of difficult decisions the drought has already forced, such as fallowing fields as groundwater levels drop, or worse, taking land out of production.</span></div><div style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; font-size: 18px; line-height: normal; font-family: Georgia; color: rgb(50, 51, 51);" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1488859107776_61436"><span style="font-kerning: none" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1488859107776_61437">Next, we must recognize that the classic definition of water as a sustainable resource — that is, using only the surface and groundwater available on an annual, renewable basis — is no longer tenable for the entire state. Instead, water sustainability in California must now refer to efforts to slow the rate of disappearance of the state’s groundwater reserves.</span></div><div style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; font-size: 18px; line-height: normal; font-family: Georgia; color: rgb(50, 51, 51);" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1488859107776_61438"><span style="font-kerning: none" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1488859107776_61439">The landmark Sustainable Groundwater Management Act, passed in 2014 in Sacramento, acknowledges and confronts the declining availability of fresh water in California. Its requirements, however, will never result in the recovery of statewide groundwater levels, even if important efforts to enhance groundwater recharge and construct additional storage are pursued.</span></div><div style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; font-size: 18px; line-height: normal; font-family: Georgia; color: rgb(50, 51, 51);" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1488859107776_61440"><span style="font-kerning: none" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1488859107776_61441">Finally, it is simply impossible to effectively plan for California’s water future without knowing a lot more about how much water the state has, how much it needs and how these amounts are changing with time.The amount of groundwater remaining in the state’s aquifers hasn’t been adequately measured; it must be quantified by exploration. This includes characterizing how its quality degrades with depth, and estimating the costs and environmental consequences of pumping and treating this deeper, lower quality groundwater.</span></div><div style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; font-size: 18px; line-height: normal; font-family: Georgia; color: rgb(50, 51, 51);" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1488859107776_61442"><span style="font-kerning: none" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1488859107776_61443">Estimating California’s diverse water needs — for food and energy production, for domestic and municipal supply, for the environment and for economic growth — requires precise measurement, as well as a partnership between water management entities and the research community so that advanced, science-based tools can help establish trade-offs among allocation options.</span></div><div style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; font-size: 18px; line-height: normal; font-family: Georgia; color: rgb(50, 51, 51);" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1488859107776_61444"><span style="font-kerning: none" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1488859107776_61445">Climate change and population growth are the primary drivers of changing water supply and demand, but other factors will also be important in managing the gap between the two. For example, personal water-use habits, greater agricultural efficiency, new technologies like potable reuse and desalination, and changes in water pricing, rights and policy will all affect the state’s water availability and needs.</span></div><div style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; font-size: 18px; line-height: normal; font-family: Georgia; color: rgb(50, 51, 51);" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1488859107776_61446"><span style="font-kerning: none" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1488859107776_61447">At the beginning of this month, and with a few weeks of winter still to come, the snowpack in the southern Sierra measured 201% of average. That’s a lot of snow and great news for a parched state. But the long-term disappearance of groundwater will persist, and water scarcity is California’s once and future reality.</span></div><div style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; font-size: 18px; line-height: normal; font-family: Georgia; color: rgb(50, 51, 51);" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1488859107776_61448"><span style="font-kerning: none" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1488859107776_61449">Embracing this distinction, understanding its causes, working to mitigate them and monitoring our water down to the last drop are the essentials of the new, post-drought era of California water.</span></div><div style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; font-size: 18px; line-height: normal; font-family: Georgia; color: rgb(50, 51, 51);" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1488859107776_61450"><span style="font-kerning: none" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1488859107776_61451"><i id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1488859107776_61452">Jay Famiglietti is a hydrologist and former professor of Earth system science and of Civil and Environmental Engineering at UC Irvine. Michelle Miro is a hydrologist and doctoral candidate in civil and environmental engineering at UCLA.</i></span></div><div class="signature" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1488859107776_61152"><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1488859107776_61160"><br></div></div></div></body></html>