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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><a href="http://www.cbbulletin.com/438703.aspx#">http://www.cbbulletin.com/438703.aspx#</a><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:7.5pt;margin-bottom:0in;margin-left:7.5pt;margin-bottom:.0001pt'><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><img border=0 width=224 height=88 id="Picture_x0020_1" src="cid:image001.gif@01D2B76D.21347550" alt="Columbia Basin Bulletin"></span><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal align=right style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:7.5pt;margin-bottom:0in;margin-left:7.5pt;margin-bottom:.0001pt;text-align:right;line-height:9.0pt'><span style='font-size:8.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><a href="http://www.cbbulletin.com/438703.aspp"><span style='color:#663366;text-decoration:none'><img border=0 width=12 height=9 id="Picture_x0020_2" src="cid:image002.gif@01D2B76D.21347550" alt="Print this Story"></span><span style='color:#663366;text-decoration:none'> Print this Story</span></a> <a href="http://www.cbbulletin.com/Email_EmailContent.aspx?id=438703"><span style='color:#663366;text-decoration:none'><img border=0 width=12 height=9 id="_ctl0__ctl0__ctl0_imgEmailImage" src="cid:image003.gif@01D2B76D.21347550" alt="Email this Story"></span><span style='color:#663366;text-decoration:none'> Email this Story </span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p><table class=MsoNormalTable border=0 cellspacing=0 cellpadding=0 width="100%" style='width:100.0%'><tr><td style='background:white;padding:8.25pt 8.25pt 8.25pt 8.25pt'><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:13.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";font-variant:small-caps;color:black'>Study Tracks California Dryness, Recovery Challenges Back To 16th Century</span></b><span style='font-size:8.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'> <br>Posted on Friday, April 14, 2017 (PST) <o:p></o:p></span></p></td></tr><tr><td style='background:white;padding:8.25pt 8.25pt 8.25pt 8.25pt'><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";color:black'>Between October 2011 and September 2015, California saw its driest four-year period in the instrumental record, which dates back to 1895.</span><span style='font-size:8.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";color:black'> </span><span style='font-size:8.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";color:black'>Parts of the state lost more than two full years of precipitation during the prolonged, severe dry spell. But, a new study by NOAA scientists </span><span style='font-size:8.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><a href="http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0423.1"><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";color:blue'>http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0423.1</span></a></span><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";color:black'> suggests that from the longer-term view of paleoclimate records, the southern Central Valley and South Coast parts of the state saw their worst dry spell in nearly 450 years.</span><span style='font-size:8.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";color:black'> </span><span style='font-size:8.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";color:black'>California’s hardest hit areas would likely need several decades for their long-term average precipitation to recover back to normal levels.</span><span style='font-size:8.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";color:black'> </span><span style='font-size:8.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";color:black'>This study also looked at how long it would take the state to recover from its current precipitation deficits.</span><span style='font-size:8.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";color:black'> </span><span style='font-size:8.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";color:black'>And, the scientists found that California’s hardest hit areas would likely need several decades for their long-term average precipitation to recover back to normal levels, starting from the 2012–2015 deficits.</span><span style='font-size:8.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";color:black'> </span><span style='font-size:8.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";color:black'>“The odds of the state completely recovering from its extreme dryness within two years are estimated at less than 1 percent,” said Dr. Eugene R. Wahl, NCEI paleoclimatologist and lead author of the study. “But, that may be what's happening right now if very wet conditions continue into spring.”</span><span style='font-size:8.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";color:black'> </span><span style='font-size:8.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";color:black'>The extreme El Niņo conditions between 2015 and 2016 helped jumpstart recovery in the northern half of the state.</span><span style='font-size:8.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";color:black'> </span><span style='font-size:8.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";color:black'>And, the scientists found that when very strong or extreme El Niņo events followed a similar deep dryness, California’s full recovery time was nearly cut in half. </span><span style='font-size:8.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";color:black'> </span><span style='font-size:8.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";color:black'>The high amounts of precipitation California has received during the current wet season have already set the state up for a faster recovery time than 80 percent of similar events.</span><span style='font-size:8.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";color:black'> </span><span style='font-size:8.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";color:black'>If it continues to be an extremely wet year for the state, like fall 1982 through summer 1983, California would be looking at an even shorter recovery time.</span><span style='font-size:8.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";color:black'> </span><span style='font-size:8.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";color:black'>But, different parts of the state have felt the impacts of the dryness differently, and they will likely recover at different rates. To get a better view of these regional differences, the scientists also looked at each of the seven standard climate divisions in California and their histories of extreme dry spells.</span><span style='font-size:8.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";color:black'> </span><span style='font-size:8.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";color:black'>In most of these regions, the scientists found that similar very dry events had occurred since the late 16th century.</span><span style='font-size:8.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";color:black'> </span><span style='font-size:8.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";color:black'>However, two of the state’s hardest hit regions—the San Joaquin Drainage and the South Coast Drainage—likely hadn’t seen a four-year period as dry since at least before 1571.</span><span style='font-size:8.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";color:black'> </span><span style='font-size:8.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";color:black'>“These two regions include the agriculturally important Central Valley and the densely populated greater Los Angeles and San Diego metropolitan areas,” said Wahl, “So, the social and economic impacts are of particular importance there.”</span><span style='font-size:8.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";color:black'> </span><span style='font-size:8.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";color:black'>According to analysis of instrumental data, the Southeast Desert Basin division had the highest likelihood of recovering within two years at around 4 percent. The San Joaquin Drainage and the South Coast Drainage divisions effectively had a zero percent chance of recovery within two years. And, the state's other four climate divisions ranged from a less than 0.1 percent to around a 1.5 percent chance.</span><span style='font-size:8.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";color:black'> </span><span style='font-size:8.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";color:black'>With the paleoclimate records, the results were similar for the Northeast Interior Basins, Central Coast Drainage, San Joaquin Drainage, and South Coast Drainage divisions. But, the likelihood of recovering within two years dropped even lower for the North Coast Drainage, Sacramento River Drainage, and Southeast Desert Basin divisions.</span><span style='font-size:8.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";color:black'> </span><span style='font-size:8.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";color:black'>By looking at precipitation alone, the study says it provides a unique view of California’s past climate as well as insights into its future. Under current conditions, the scientists found that precipitation patterns alone are capable of producing unprecedented dry conditions such as occurred in the San Joaquin Drainage and the South Coast Drainage regions during 2012–2015, without the compounding factor of increasing temperatures.</span><span style='font-size:8.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";color:black'> </span><span style='font-size:8.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";color:black'>If temperatures continue to rise as they have, says the study, the U.S. Southwest could be facing “megadroughts” -- worse than any droughts in the region since medieval times. In a warming world, says the study, higher temperatures could combine with and amplify severe precipitation deficits. </span><span style='font-size:8.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal align=right style='text-align:right'><a href="http://www.addthis.com/bookmark.php?v=250&pub=xa-4a73074e66d2b0b0"><span style='font-size:8.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#663366;text-decoration:none'><img border=0 width=125 height=16 id="Picture_x0020_4" src="cid:image004.gif@01D2B76D.21347550" alt="Bookmark and Share"></span></a><span style='font-size:8.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p></td></tr><tr><td style='background:white;padding:8.25pt 8.25pt 8.25pt 8.25pt'></td></tr></table><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:7.5pt;margin-bottom:0in;margin-left:7.5pt;margin-bottom:.0001pt'><span style='font-size:8.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black;display:none'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><table class=MsoNormalTable border=0 cellspacing=0 cellpadding=0 width="100%" style='width:100.0%'><tr><td style='padding:8.25pt 8.25pt 8.25pt 8.25pt'></td></tr></table><div style='mso-element:para-border-div;border:none;border-top:solid windowtext 1.0pt;padding:1.0pt 0in 0in 0in'><p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;border:none;padding:0in'><span style='font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>Bottom of Form<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div></body></html>