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<p>Sure looked that way to me too--Glad to have gotten it, but
didn't see anything new in the summary.</p>
<p>Some of us on the Shasta put together a proposal to the KRBFTF to
GSI Klamath stocks at least 20 years ago with a cutting edge
researcher who was prepared to loose money on the effort if that
was what it took. Got killed, I suspect by users who didn't want
to go anywhere near weak stock management. Better to collectively
beat them into the ground for short term gains. And 50% harvest
rate--how about 66% as the Klamath target, with no justification
then or adequate review later.</p>
<p>At least they are thinking about it, but I have to suspect they
are just rehashing hatchery cwt data.<br>
</p>
<p>Dave<br>
</p>
<br>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">On 6/20/2018 12:34 PM, Kier Associates
wrote:<br>
</div>
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<div class="WordSection1">
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:12.0pt">This
Columbia Basin Bulletin article is stunningly uninformative.
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:12.0pt">Nowhere does
it - nor the summary of the Canadian Journal of Fisheries
and Aquatic Sciences it cites - identify how fish from the
various river-basin stocks have been identified <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="margin-left:2.0pt;line-height:12.25pt;mso-line-height-rule:exactly;text-autospace:none"><span
style="font-size:12.0pt">Has the zombie </span><span
style="font-size:12.0pt;letter-spacing:-.1pt"><a
href="pacificfishtrax.org/media/WCSGSI_Activity%20Report%2010Feb2011.pdf"
moz-do-not-send="true">W<span style="letter-spacing:.05pt">e</span><span
style="letter-spacing:0pt">st Coast Salmon Genetic Sto</span><span
style="letter-spacing:-.05pt">c</span><span
style="letter-spacing:0pt">k Ide</span><span
style="letter-spacing:-.05pt">n</span><span
style="letter-spacing:0pt">ti</span><span
style="letter-spacing:-.05pt">f</span><span
style="letter-spacing:0pt">ic</span><span
style="letter-spacing:-.05pt">a</span><span
style="letter-spacing:0pt">tion C</span><span
style="letter-spacing:-.05pt">o</span><span
style="letter-spacing:0pt">llaboration</span></a> come
to life? I assume so if <a
href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjV-pmw-uLbAhVG-qwKHVMYA4QQFggnMAA&url=https%3A%2F%2Fdigitalcommons.csumb.edu%2Fcgi%2Fviewcontent.cgi%3Farticle%3D1026%26context%3Dsns_fac&usg=AOvVaw3u6KUhmo4_bo2rEcH12OIi"
moz-do-not-send="true">Mr <span
style="letter-spacing:0pt">Satterthwaite</span></a> was
part of the project team<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="margin-left:2.0pt;line-height:12.25pt;mso-line-height-rule:exactly;text-autospace:none"><span
style="font-size:12.0pt;letter-spacing:-.1pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="margin-left:2.0pt;line-height:12.25pt;mso-line-height-rule:exactly;text-autospace:none"><span
style="font-size:12.0pt;letter-spacing:-.1pt">But not a word
- did you notice? - of how the fish were identified as to
their rivers of origin - just talk of the model/ its results<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="margin-left:2.0pt;line-height:12.25pt;mso-line-height-rule:exactly;text-autospace:none"><span
style="font-size:12.0pt;letter-spacing:-.1pt">--<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="margin-left:2.0pt;line-height:12.25pt;mso-line-height-rule:exactly;text-autospace:none"><span
style="font-size:12.0pt;letter-spacing:-.1pt">Nat Bingham,
then the Pacific Coast Federation of Fishermen’s
Associations restoration coordinator, saw with crystal
clarity the wisdom of the then-nascent genetic stock
identification (GSI) science/ how the Human Genome Project
had thrust the rapid DNA analysis tools into our hands, and
he was pushing for a West Coast GSI collaboration with might
and main at the time of his untimely death 20 years ago last
month<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="margin-left:2.0pt;line-height:12.25pt;mso-line-height-rule:exactly;text-autospace:none"><span
style="font-size:12.0pt;letter-spacing:-.1pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="margin-left:2.0pt;line-height:12.25pt;mso-line-height-rule:exactly;text-autospace:none"><span
style="font-size:12.0pt;letter-spacing:-.1pt">Advancing GSI
science will substantially strengthen the management of
mixed-stock Pacific salmon ocean fisheries <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="margin-left:2.0pt;line-height:12.25pt;mso-line-height-rule:exactly;text-autospace:none"><span
style="font-size:12.0pt;letter-spacing:-.1pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="margin-left:2.0pt;line-height:12.25pt;mso-line-height-rule:exactly;text-autospace:none"><span
style="font-size:12.0pt;letter-spacing:-.1pt">So far as I
can tell the </span><span style="font-size:12.0pt">Columbia
Basin Bulletin article does nothing to spotlight GSI <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="margin-left:2.0pt;line-height:12.25pt;mso-line-height-rule:exactly;text-autospace:none"><span
style="font-size:12.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="margin-left:2.0pt;line-height:12.25pt;mso-line-height-rule:exactly;text-autospace:none"><span
style="font-size:12.0pt">Did I miss something?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="margin-left:2.0pt;line-height:12.25pt;mso-line-height-rule:exactly;text-autospace:none"><span
style="font-size:12.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="margin-left:2.0pt;line-height:12.25pt;mso-line-height-rule:exactly;text-autospace:none"><span
style="font-size:12.0pt">Bill Kier</span><span
style="color:#1F497D"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<div>
<div style="border:none;border-top:solid #B5C4DF
1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in">
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span
style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"">From:</span></b><span
style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"">
env-trinity
[<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="mailto:env-trinity-bounces@velocipede.dcn.davis.ca.us">mailto:env-trinity-bounces@velocipede.dcn.davis.ca.us</a>]
<b>On Behalf Of </b>Sari Sommarstrom<br>
<b>Sent:</b> Wednesday, June 20, 2018 10:22 AM<br>
<b>To:</b> 'Env-trinity'<br>
<b>Subject:</b> [env-trinity] CBB: Study Identifies
Ocean Distribution Of Fall Chinook<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><img id="Picture_x0020_1"
src="cid:part3.2FE65584.63E5C11E@wildblue.net" alt="Columbia
Basin Bulletin" class="" height="88" width="224" border="0"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size:14.0pt">Study
Identifies Ocean Distribution Of Fall Chinook; Should Help
Target/Avoid Certain Stocks <o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Posted on Friday, June 15, 2018 (PST) <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">A recent study of the general locations of
salmon in the Pacific Ocean could help managers steer heavy
fishing away from threatened and endangered stocks. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The study estimates the distribution in the
ocean of a far-ranging number of fall run chinook stocks,
including populations from California’s Central Valley to
populations in southern British Columbia.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">“We show how fall chinook from different
river systems have systematically different ocean
distributions and that these ocean distributions can vary
substantively by season,” said Andrew Olaf Shelton, a research
ecologist in the Conservation Biology Division of NOAA’s
Northwest Fisheries Science Center in Seattle. “We use these
new estimates of ocean distribution to make projections of how
many fall chinook salmon from different origin systems are in
different spatial areas.”<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">He added that the information from the
study should be useful to managers thinking about how to
target, or avoid, particular stocks. Shelton called these
“spatial management options.”<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Historically, commercial and recreational
fisheries took a high fraction of salmon returns, in some
cases over 50 percent of the returning fish, Shelton said.
However, fisheries harvest has declined over the past 30 years
coast-wide, including the closure of some fisheries entirely –
the Strait of Georgia commercial troll fishery – or the
temporary closure of some areas like the California and
southern Oregon troll closure more recently.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">As a general guideline, fish were generally
distributed in the ocean near to their origin, the study says.
For example, fish that originate between California and
southern Oregon almost always remain in waters south of
British Columbia, while fish originating in the far north,
seldom journeyed south. Nearly all chinook found in the Salish
sea originated there and few strays from other areas are
found.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Fish from the Columbia River basin showed
the broadest spatial distribution “with significant
proportions present in areas from California to Alaska.”<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">In addition, there are seasonal
distributions occurring with fish from nearly all regions,
according to the study. Fish from a given region in the ocean
tend to be in more northerly areas in summer than in winter or
spring, and because of spawning migrations, chinook tend to be
located near their region of origin in the fall.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">“Using hierarchical models to estimate
stock-specific and seasonal variation in ocean distribution,
survivorship, and aggregate abundance of fall run Chinook
salmon” was published online April 15, 2018, in the Canadian
Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
(<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/abs/10.1139/cjfas-2017-0204#.WyLJ_qdKjIU">http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/abs/10.1139/cjfas-2017-0204#.WyLJ_qdKjIU</a>).<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Shelton’s co-authors are Will
Satterthwaite, research ecologist in the Fisheries Ecology
Division at NOAA’s Southwest Fisheries Science Center in Santa
Cruz; Eric Ward and Blake Feist, statisticians, in the
Conservation Biology Division at the Northwest Fisheries
Science Center; and Brian Burke, supervisory research fishery
biologist, fish ecology division at the Northwest Fisheries
Science Center.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">“We show that Chinook salmon ocean
distribution depends strongly on region of origin and varies
seasonally while survival showed regionally varying temporal
patterns,” the study says. “Simulations incorporating juvenile
production data provide proportional stock composition in
different ocean regions and the first coastwide projections of
Chinook salmon aggregate abundance.”<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Although not directly addressing abundance
of juveniles in the ocean, Shelton said, the models developed
by these researchers do, among other things, estimate survival
of young chinook salmon from each release group and assesses
how survival changed over the years of the study (releases
between 1978 and 1990). <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">“In general our results show a mild decline
in survivorship for most (but not all) origin regions over
that period, but there is a lot of variability both within and
among regions,” Shelton said. “We are interested in trying to
understand both the trend across years and the variability
within years in future work.”<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The general importance of this study is
that it provides predictions of ocean distribution of fall
chinook that will help improve management over both the short
and long term. Understanding which stocks are where and when
they are there is important for allowing exploitation on
healthy stocks and avoiding harvest on depleted stocks. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">“Our work is not the final say for chinook
salmon ocean distribution, but it is an important step
forward,” Shelton said. “Our work provides methods for
estimating ocean distribution of salmon species that are
general and extendable.”<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">He said the researchers are now working to
incorporate data from recent years to other species and run
types (they are currently expanding their work to spring
chinook), and to include information about how ocean
distributions shift with climactic drivers such as ocean
temperature.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The model also allows individuals to play
out management scenarios to understand the consequences for
chinook abundance, Shelton said.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">One example summarized in the study is a
prediction of the consequences of reducing by half the number
of hatchery fish of Puget Sound stocks. In that case,
available fish would decline substantively in Puget Sound, but
other areas would also be notably affected, he said.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Other uses for the model could include an
investigation of the consequences of shifting the spatial and
seasonal intensity of ocean fisheries for particular stocks.
It can be applied to understand drivers of chinook salmon
biology, such as climate effects on ocean distribution as well
as the management effects of changing juvenile production.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">“Our work as a tool has broad application
for understanding patterns of spatio-temporal variation among
Chinook salmon and other tagged salmonid populations,” the
study says. “Additionally, it is a simulation platform for
exploring the consequences of biological variation and
management decisions on an important marine resource.”<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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