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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt'>well, I’ve been doing some e-connecting, web-crawling etc on the subject this aft and eve and it appears that the West Coast Salmon Genetic Stock Identification Collaboration - or some variation thereof - has, indeed, been making steady progress over the past decade on Pacific salmon GSI database development - information that presumably played a major role in the population of the model that produced the results reported in the Columbia Basin Bulletin article posted by Sari to the Env-Trinity list today<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt'>Still, it would have been helpful had the authors explained a bit where they got the river-origin data with which they populated their model<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt'>‘nuff said<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt'>Bill Kier<span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p></o:p></span></span></p><div><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #B5C4DF 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in'><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'>From:</span></b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'> Kier Associates [mailto:kierassociates@att.net] <br><b>Sent:</b> Wednesday, June 20, 2018 12:35 PM<br><b>To:</b> 'Sari Sommarstrom'; 'Env-trinity'<br><b>Subject:</b> RE: [env-trinity] CBB: Study Identifies Ocean Distribution Of Fall Chinook<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt'>This Columbia Basin Bulletin article is stunningly uninformative. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt'>Nowhere does it - nor the summary of the Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences it cites - identify how fish from the various river-basin stocks have been identified <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:2.0pt;line-height:12.25pt;mso-line-height-rule:exactly;text-autospace:none'><span style='font-size:12.0pt'>Has the zombie <span style='letter-spacing:-.1pt'><a href="pacificfishtrax.org/media/WCSGSI_Activity%20Report%2010Feb2011.pdf">W<span style='letter-spacing:.05pt'>e</span><span style='letter-spacing:0pt'>st Coast Salmon Genetic Sto</span><span style='letter-spacing:-.05pt'>c</span><span style='letter-spacing:0pt'>k Ide</span><span style='letter-spacing:-.05pt'>n</span><span style='letter-spacing:0pt'>ti</span><span style='letter-spacing:-.05pt'>f</span><span style='letter-spacing:0pt'>ic</span><span style='letter-spacing:-.05pt'>a</span><span style='letter-spacing:0pt'>tion C</span><span style='letter-spacing:-.05pt'>o</span><span style='letter-spacing:0pt'>llaboration</span></a> come to life? I assume so if <a href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjV-pmw-uLbAhVG-qwKHVMYA4QQFggnMAA&url=https%3A%2F%2Fdigitalcommons.csumb.edu%2Fcgi%2Fviewcontent.cgi%3Farticle%3D1026%26context%3Dsns_fac&usg=AOvVaw3u6KUhmo4_bo2rEcH12OIi">Mr <span style='letter-spacing:0pt'>Satterthwaite</span></a> was part of the project team<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:2.0pt;line-height:12.25pt;mso-line-height-rule:exactly;text-autospace:none'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;letter-spacing:-.1pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:2.0pt;line-height:12.25pt;mso-line-height-rule:exactly;text-autospace:none'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;letter-spacing:-.1pt'>But not a word - did you notice? - of how the fish were identified as to their rivers of origin - just talk of the model/ its results<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:2.0pt;line-height:12.25pt;mso-line-height-rule:exactly;text-autospace:none'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;letter-spacing:-.1pt'>--<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:2.0pt;line-height:12.25pt;mso-line-height-rule:exactly;text-autospace:none'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;letter-spacing:-.1pt'>Nat Bingham, then the Pacific Coast Federation of Fishermen’s Associations restoration coordinator, saw with crystal clarity the wisdom of the then-nascent genetic stock identification (GSI) science/ how the Human Genome Project had thrust the rapid DNA analysis tools into our hands, and he was pushing for a West Coast GSI collaboration with might and main at the time of his untimely death 20 years ago last month<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:2.0pt;line-height:12.25pt;mso-line-height-rule:exactly;text-autospace:none'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;letter-spacing:-.1pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:2.0pt;line-height:12.25pt;mso-line-height-rule:exactly;text-autospace:none'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;letter-spacing:-.1pt'>Advancing GSI science will substantially strengthen the management of mixed-stock Pacific salmon ocean fisheries <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:2.0pt;line-height:12.25pt;mso-line-height-rule:exactly;text-autospace:none'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;letter-spacing:-.1pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:2.0pt;line-height:12.25pt;mso-line-height-rule:exactly;text-autospace:none'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;letter-spacing:-.1pt'>So far as I can tell the </span><span style='font-size:12.0pt'>Columbia Basin Bulletin article does nothing to spotlight GSI <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:2.0pt;line-height:12.25pt;mso-line-height-rule:exactly;text-autospace:none'><span style='font-size:12.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:2.0pt;line-height:12.25pt;mso-line-height-rule:exactly;text-autospace:none'><span style='font-size:12.0pt'>Did I miss something?<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:2.0pt;line-height:12.25pt;mso-line-height-rule:exactly;text-autospace:none'><span style='font-size:12.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:2.0pt;line-height:12.25pt;mso-line-height-rule:exactly;text-autospace:none'><span style='font-size:12.0pt'>Bill Kier</span><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p></o:p></span></p><div><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #B5C4DF 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in'><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'>From:</span></b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'> env-trinity [mailto:env-trinity-bounces@velocipede.dcn.davis.ca.us] <b>On Behalf Of </b>Sari Sommarstrom<br><b>Sent:</b> Wednesday, June 20, 2018 10:22 AM<br><b>To:</b> 'Env-trinity'<br><b>Subject:</b> [env-trinity] CBB: Study Identifies Ocean Distribution Of Fall Chinook<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><img border=0 width=224 height=88 id="Picture_x0020_1" src="cid:image001.gif@01D408DE.D030AD80" alt="Columbia Basin Bulletin"><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt'>Study Identifies Ocean Distribution Of Fall Chinook; Should Help Target/Avoid Certain Stocks <o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal>Posted on Friday, June 15, 2018 (PST) <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>A recent study of the general locations of salmon in the Pacific Ocean could help managers steer heavy fishing away from threatened and endangered stocks. <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>The study estimates the distribution in the ocean of a far-ranging number of fall run chinook stocks, including populations from California’s Central Valley to populations in southern British Columbia.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>“We show how fall chinook from different river systems have systematically different ocean distributions and that these ocean distributions can vary substantively by season,” said Andrew Olaf Shelton, a research ecologist in the Conservation Biology Division of NOAA’s Northwest Fisheries Science Center in Seattle. “We use these new estimates of ocean distribution to make projections of how many fall chinook salmon from different origin systems are in different spatial areas.”<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>He added that the information from the study should be useful to managers thinking about how to target, or avoid, particular stocks. Shelton called these “spatial management options.”<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Historically, commercial and recreational fisheries took a high fraction of salmon returns, in some cases over 50 percent of the returning fish, Shelton said. However, fisheries harvest has declined over the past 30 years coast-wide, including the closure of some fisheries entirely – the Strait of Georgia commercial troll fishery – or the temporary closure of some areas like the California and southern Oregon troll closure more recently.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>As a general guideline, fish were generally distributed in the ocean near to their origin, the study says. For example, fish that originate between California and southern Oregon almost always remain in waters south of British Columbia, while fish originating in the far north, seldom journeyed south. Nearly all chinook found in the Salish sea originated there and few strays from other areas are found.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Fish from the Columbia River basin showed the broadest spatial distribution “with significant proportions present in areas from California to Alaska.”<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>In addition, there are seasonal distributions occurring with fish from nearly all regions, according to the study. Fish from a given region in the ocean tend to be in more northerly areas in summer than in winter or spring, and because of spawning migrations, chinook tend to be located near their region of origin in the fall.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>“Using hierarchical models to estimate stock-specific and seasonal variation in ocean distribution, survivorship, and aggregate abundance of fall run Chinook salmon” was published online April 15, 2018, in the Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences (http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/abs/10.1139/cjfas-2017-0204#.WyLJ_qdKjIU).<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Shelton’s co-authors are Will Satterthwaite, research ecologist in the Fisheries Ecology Division at NOAA’s Southwest Fisheries Science Center in Santa Cruz; Eric Ward and Blake Feist, statisticians, in the Conservation Biology Division at the Northwest Fisheries Science Center; and Brian Burke, supervisory research fishery biologist, fish ecology division at the Northwest Fisheries Science Center.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>“We show that Chinook salmon ocean distribution depends strongly on region of origin and varies seasonally while survival showed regionally varying temporal patterns,” the study says. “Simulations incorporating juvenile production data provide proportional stock composition in different ocean regions and the first coastwide projections of Chinook salmon aggregate abundance.”<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Although not directly addressing abundance of juveniles in the ocean, Shelton said, the models developed by these researchers do, among other things, estimate survival of young chinook salmon from each release group and assesses how survival changed over the years of the study (releases between 1978 and 1990). <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>“In general our results show a mild decline in survivorship for most (but not all) origin regions over that period, but there is a lot of variability both within and among regions,” Shelton said. “We are interested in trying to understand both the trend across years and the variability within years in future work.”<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>The general importance of this study is that it provides predictions of ocean distribution of fall chinook that will help improve management over both the short and long term. Understanding which stocks are where and when they are there is important for allowing exploitation on healthy stocks and avoiding harvest on depleted stocks. <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>“Our work is not the final say for chinook salmon ocean distribution, but it is an important step forward,” Shelton said. “Our work provides methods for estimating ocean distribution of salmon species that are general and extendable.”<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>He said the researchers are now working to incorporate data from recent years to other species and run types (they are currently expanding their work to spring chinook), and to include information about how ocean distributions shift with climactic drivers such as ocean temperature.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>The model also allows individuals to play out management scenarios to understand the consequences for chinook abundance, Shelton said.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>One example summarized in the study is a prediction of the consequences of reducing by half the number of hatchery fish of Puget Sound stocks. In that case, available fish would decline substantively in Puget Sound, but other areas would also be notably affected, he said.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Other uses for the model could include an investigation of the consequences of shifting the spatial and seasonal intensity of ocean fisheries for particular stocks. It can be applied to understand drivers of chinook salmon biology, such as climate effects on ocean distribution as well as the management effects of changing juvenile production.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>“Our work as a tool has broad application for understanding patterns of spatio-temporal variation among Chinook salmon and other tagged salmonid populations,” the study says. “Additionally, it is a simulation platform for exploring the consequences of biological variation and management decisions on an important marine resource.”<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div></body></html>