[1st-mile-nm] IEEE: 5G is in Danger of Being Oversold

Thu Mar 1 13:50:29 PST 2018

Any place that has electricity, especially those served by co-ops could get
fiber ultimately. It may take a well-designed grant program, but it can be
done far more efficiently than any of the universal service programs in
operation today.

Google decided to focus on dominating AI and driverless cars and such
rather than deployment. There is no evidence that they were losing money,
rather anyone that understands how such businesses make decisions should be
aware that while there are fiber models that are profitable, they may not
offer the return that some in Google were expecting. That's fine. the small
ISPs I see building fiber steadily year after year are profitable. They
aren't going to buy NFL stadium sponsorships, but they are providing a
service that is desperately desired and they are making a good return.
Google will focus on dominating the future of AI and driverless cars and
who knows what. They have a different calculus.

The vast majority of North Dakota has FTTH. I believe it is the 4th most
sparsely populated state in the union. But it is very easy to simply ignore
the evidence and pretend that it just can't be done.  We have documented
where rural fiber is available, and it is far more than most realize.
https://muninetworks.org/content/rural-cooperatives-page

Christopher Mitchell
Director, Community Broadband Networks
Institute for Local Self-Reliance

MuniNetworks.org <http://www.muninetworks.org/>
@communitynets
612-545-5185

On Thu, Mar 1, 2018 at 7:36 AM, John Badal <JBadal at sacred-wind.com> wrote:

> Business case?  Even the well heeled Google has rethought its FTTH plans
> in urban areas far more densely populated than NM’s rural areas.  The
> sizzle got ahead of the steak.
>
>
>
> John
>
>
>
> *From:* Christopher Mitchell [mailto:christopher at ilsr.org]
> *Sent:* Thursday, March 1, 2018 8:32 AM
> *To:* John Badal <JBadal at sacred-wind.com>
> *Cc:* masha at bbcmag.com; Doug Orr <doug.orr at gmail.com>; rl at 1st-mile.org;
> 1st-Mile-NM <1st-mile-nm at mailman.dcn.org>
>
> *Subject:* Re: [1st-mile-nm] IEEE: 5G is in Danger of Being Oversold
>
>
>
> The point of a gig is not to use all of it anymore than the point of a
> highway is to experiment with the maximum number of cars you can put on it.
>
>
>
> The point of a gig is abundance - sure 452 Mbps would probably do that
> too, but a gig resonates and is a standard.
>
>
>
> It would be difficult for me to use all of the electricity that can flow
> into my house - but we overprovision certain kinds of infrastructure when
> that can unlock additional value.
>
>
>
> And finally, if we assume that communities will still need high quality
> Internet access in 30 years, everyone I talk to that does both fiber and
> wireless says that while fiber is more expensive on the front end, the much
> lower operating and future upgrade costs ultimately make it MORE cost
> effective than wireless over a period of decades.
>
>
>
> There are many legitimate reasons for people in rural areas to "cry" for
> better connectivity even if they have the same number of gigabit
> applications as we do cars that are 5 lanes wide.
>
>
> Christopher Mitchell
> Director, Community Broadband Networks
> Institute for Local Self-Reliance
>
>
> MuniNetworks.org <http://www.muninetworks.org/>
>
> @communitynets
>
> 612-545-5185 <(612)%20545-5185>
>
>
>
> On Wed, Feb 28, 2018 at 4:48 PM, John Badal <JBadal at sacred-wind.com>
> wrote:
>
> 5G has the same sexy appeal to the uniformed as fiber to the home.  Rural
> communities are crying for both, afraid they’d fall deeper into the digital
> divide, but unaware that the vast majority of consumers could never use
> gigabit speeds outside of recreating in the home Star Trek-like virtual
> reality holodecks.    What makes much more sense to me is for Albuquerque
> to build 20-lane highways and 10-lane boulevards throughout the city to
> eliminate any congestion during rush hours, along with robotic car removal
> systems to dispense with cars damaged in an accident.
>
>
>
> John
>
>
>
> *From:* 1st-mile-nm [mailto:1st-mile-nm-bounces at mailman.dcn.org] *On
> Behalf Of *Masha Zager
> *Sent:* Wednesday, February 28, 2018 5:30 PM
> *To:* 'Doug Orr' <doug.orr at gmail.com>; rl at 1st-mile.org
> *Cc:* '1st-Mile-NM' <1st-mile-nm at mailman.dcn.org>
>
>
> *Subject:* Re: [1st-mile-nm] IEEE: 5G is in Danger of Being Oversold
>
>
>
> It’s not. See this: http://www.bbcmag.com/2017mags/Mar_Apr/BBC_Mar17_
> 5GNotAnswer.pdf
>
>
>
>
>
>
> *Masha Zager *Editor-in-Chief, Broadband Communities
> masha at bbcmag.com
> 518-943-0374 <(518)%20943-0374>
> www.bbcmag.com
> www.twitter.com/bbcmag
>
>
>
> *From:* 1st-mile-nm [mailto:1st-mile-nm-bounces at mailman.dcn.org
> <1st-mile-nm-bounces at mailman.dcn.org>] *On Behalf Of *Doug Orr
> *Sent:* Wednesday, February 28, 2018 7:16 PM
> *To:* rl at 1st-mile.org
> *Cc:* 1st-Mile-NM
> *Subject:* Re: [1st-mile-nm] IEEE: 5G is in Danger of Being Oversold
>
>
>
> I'm unclear as to why 5g fixed is going to be cheaper to deploy than
> fiber. If the state charges $250/antenna... that buys a lot of hardwired
> installer time. And the antennas need backhaul, presumably, so lighting up
> a neighborhood in anticipation of new customer uptake... that seems a lot
> like upgrading infrastructure that would be needed if the idea is to offer
> faster aggregate speeds.
>
>
>
> What's the model here?
>
>
>
> Does anyone know of real world benchmarks for 5G applications (e.g.,
> netflix)?
>
>
>
>   Doug
>
>
>
> On Wed, Feb 28, 2018 at 1:47 PM Richard Lowenberg <rl at 1st-mile.org> wrote:
>
> Following on recent postings.     RL
>
> -------
>
> Commercial service is years away, but even then, 5G won’t fulfill all of
> its promises
>
> https://spectrum.ieee.org/telecom/internet/5g-is-in-
> danger-of-being-oversold
>
> By Stacey Higginbotham
>
> Just like graphene or Elon Musk’s startups, 5G has become a technology
> savior. Proponents tout the poorly defined wireless technology as the
> path to virtual reality, telemedicine, and self-⁠driving cars.
>
> But 5G is not a technology—it’s a buzzword unleashed by marketing
> departments. As early as 2012, Broadcom was using it to sell Wi-Fi. In
> reality, 5G is a term that telecommunications investors and executives
> sling around as the solution to high infrastructure costs, the need for
> more bandwidth, and a desire to boost margins.
>
> The unifying component behind 5G is faster wireless broadband service. A
> more stringent—and practical—definition is the use of high-frequency
> millimeter waves (in addition to the microwaves that 4G LTE relies on
> today) to deliver over-the-air broadband to phones or homes.
>
> If you’re talking about phones, 5G is still years away. And new services
> aren’t really on the menu. Just listen to the heads of several
> telecommunications companies, who have begun to tamp down investors’
> expectations around what 5G can deliver.
>
> (snip)
>
>
> ---------------------------------------------------------------
> Richard Lowenberg, Executive Director
> 1st-Mile Institute     505-603-5200 <(505)%20603-5200>
> Box 8001, Santa Fe, NM 87504,
> rl at 1st-mile.org     www.1st-mile.org
> ---------------------------------------------------------------
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