[1st-mile-nm] IEEE: 5G is in Danger of Being Oversold
Doug Orr
doug.orr at gmail.com
Fri Mar 2 17:19:30 PST 2018
Self driving cars need to know what other cars are doing, which they
ascertain, currently, using non-network mechanisms like lidar.
There might be some notion of more global traffic optimizations or accident
avoidance with more chatter, that sort of thing would be very slow to roll
out, given the levels of system risk they add...and the cars would still
need to be primarily autonomous. Not to mention malicious acts. Let's not
even talk about hacking scenarios that adding active network involvement
opens up.
Google's (waymo's) cars, for instance, have millions of miles already and
nobody else on the road is telling them anything. So it's clearly not a
requirement. For it to be part of an enhancement it needs to not add any
significant liability...
[Personal anecdote: I worked at Ford as a college student in the late 70's
in the Advanced Engine Engineering department. I was student help in the
group working on the second generation computer control (EEC III -- I don't
think EEC I made it into production). They focused on Lincolns (their
biggest EPA liability which got the latest tech). The computers had 4k
foreground, 4k background rom. You worked on a model three years in the
future. 82's were the first model where the computer wouldn't shut down
when you turned the key off and the first model where the computer
controlled the fuel injection -- meaning that a bug in the control software
could keep gas pumping into the hot engine indefinitely turning it from
"car" into "bomb."
The more seasoned engineers had a lot of black humor about what they were
going to say at "the trial"...
We know more about software risks and defense in depth, thankfully, now,
but there are still parallels ;]
But, in any case I did look up what the web is saying about 5g in self
driving cars. It looks like total marketing fantasy. The machine to machine
part could make sense if you could make it secure but would be decades away
for making something that would actually be safe and functional. And that's
peer-to-peer, not making carrier networks sufficiently durable to be sure
they won't contribute to fatalities. These are all just ideas and ideas
that will be really hard to make reliable.
My cats will love riding to the store for cream. I don't expect to get to
use the car much.
On Fri, Mar 2, 2018, 4:54 PM Mimbres Communications <mimcom at sw-ei.com>
wrote:
> A dog looks at you and thinks, "You love me, you feed me, you care for me
> -- you must be a god!"
>
> A cat looks at you and thinks, "You love me, you feed me, you care for me
> -- I must be a god!"
>
> On Fri, Mar 2, 2018 at 4:50 PM, Steve Ross <editorsteve at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> Dog have masters, cats have staff. My wife and I are staff to two cats. I
>> think the world has a surplus of cat memes, but there's always room for a
>> few more....and they would accessorize their self-driving catmobiles with
>> catnip dispensers, string, and laser pointers.
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> Steve Ross
>> Editor-at-Large, Broadband Communities Magazine (www.bbcmag.com)
>> 201-456-5933 <(201)%20456-5933> mobile
>> 707-WOW-SSR3 (707-969-7773 <(707)%20969-7773>) Google Voice
>> editorsteve (Facebook, LinkedIn)
>> editorsteve1 (Twitter)
>> steve at bbcmag.com
>> editorsteve at gmail.com
>>
>>
>> On Fri, Mar 2, 2018 at 6:41 PM, David Breecker [dba] <
>> david at breeckerassociates.com> wrote:
>>
>>> Let’s stay with self-driving cats, could be the next hot YouTube meme ;-)
>>>
>>> Good weekend to all,
>>> db
>>>
>>>
>>> On Mar 2, 2018, at 4:22 PM, Steve Ross <editorsteve at gmail.com> wrote:
>>>
>>> Cars, too. Meow.
>>>
>>> On Mar 2, 2018 6:22 PM, editorsteve at gmail.com wrote:
>>>
>>>> Self driving cats need to know what all the other cars are doing. Very
>>>> opposite of autonomous.
>>>>
>>>> On Mar 2, 2018 6:15 PM, "Doug Orr" <doug.orr at gmail.com> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> I'm pretty sure mimo is going to be like multiprocessor compensating
>>>>> for the demise of Moore's law in processors around transistor density:
>>>>> applications have to change for it to be of profound use, it won't speed up
>>>>> things to their advertised potential, except maybe a few new things come
>>>>> out as the result of new end to end stacks...
>>>>>
>>>>> Most of the speed hacks don't look like they will work well for
>>>>> anything other than big parallel transfers, and latency is still speed of
>>>>> light constrained. Anything involving the edge starts to eat power and
>>>>> comes with troublesome consistency issues.
>>>>>
>>>>> People picturing super fast web and 8k movies are likely in for some
>>>>> surprises.
>>>>>
>>>>> Self driving cars will need to be largely autonomous, so I find all of
>>>>> the talk about how they are the 5g killer app confusing. That may just be
>>>>> my ignorance. Wrt super chatty self driving cars, aggregate bandwidth is
>>>>> the issue and there will be a lot of work carriers have to do to support
>>>>> cell density at scale. Having your car stop working in a cell dead zone
>>>>> seems like a bad consumer experience...
>>>>>
>>>>> 5g looks like the primary muddier of 5g waters to me.
>>>>>
>>>>> On Fri, Mar 2, 2018, 3:54 PM Jeff <jeff at mountainconnect.org> wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>> One could argue Samsung, with new LTE technology (4x4 MIMO antenna,
>>>>>> frequency aggregation, 256 QAM) introduced in their S8 phone, may have
>>>>>> muddied the 5G waters.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Jeff
>>>>>>
>>>>>> On 2/28/18, 1:43 PM, "1st-mile-nm on behalf of Richard Lowenberg" <
>>>>>> 1st-mile-nm-bounces at mailman.dcn.org on behalf of rl at 1st-mile.org>
>>>>>> wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Following on recent postings. RL
>>>>>>
>>>>>> -------
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Commercial service is years away, but even then, 5G won’t fulfill
>>>>>> all of
>>>>>> its promises
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> https://spectrum.ieee.org/telecom/internet/5g-is-in-danger-of-being-oversold
>>>>>>
>>>>>> By Stacey Higginbotham
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Just like graphene or Elon Musk’s startups, 5G has become a
>>>>>> technology
>>>>>> savior. Proponents tout the poorly defined wireless technology as
>>>>>> the
>>>>>> path to virtual reality, telemedicine, and self-driving cars.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> But 5G is not a technology—it’s a buzzword unleashed by marketing
>>>>>> departments. As early as 2012, Broadcom was using it to sell
>>>>>> Wi-Fi. In
>>>>>> reality, 5G is a term that telecommunications investors and
>>>>>> executives
>>>>>> sling around as the solution to high infrastructure costs, the
>>>>>> need for
>>>>>> more bandwidth, and a desire to boost margins.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> The unifying component behind 5G is faster wireless broadband
>>>>>> service. A
>>>>>> more stringent—and practical—definition is the use of
>>>>>> high-frequency
>>>>>> millimeter waves (in addition to the microwaves that 4G LTE
>>>>>> relies on
>>>>>> today) to deliver over-the-air broadband to phones or homes.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> If you’re talking about phones, 5G is still years away. And new
>>>>>> services
>>>>>> aren’t really on the menu. Just listen to the heads of several
>>>>>> telecommunications companies, who have begun to tamp down
>>>>>> investors’
>>>>>> expectations around what 5G can deliver.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> (snip)
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> ---------------------------------------------------------------
>>>>>> Richard Lowenberg, Executive Director
>>>>>> 1st-Mile Institute 505-603-5200 <(505)%20603-5200>
>>>>>> Box 8001, Santa Fe, NM 87504,
>>>>>> rl at 1st-mile.org www.1st-mile.org
>>>>>> ---------------------------------------------------------------
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>>> President
>>>
>>> [image: PastedGraphic-7.png]
>>>
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>>> *www.breeckerassociates.com <http://www.breeckerassociates.com>*
>>>
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>
>
> --
>
> Kurt Albershardt | Mimbres Communications, LLC | 575-342-0042 <(575)%20342-0042>
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