[env-trinity] CBB: NOAA Winter Outlook: Warm Winter For Pacific Northwest, Below-Average Precipitation

[Sari Sommarstrom]

THE COLUMBIA BASIN BULLETIN: Weekly Fish and Wildlife News

www.cbbulletin.com

October 17, 2014   Issue No. 724

 

NOAA Winter Outlook: Warm Winter For Pacific Northwest, Below-Average
Precipitation

 

Below average temperatures are favored in parts of the south-central and
southeastern United States, while above-average temperatures are most likely
in the western U.S., Alaska, Hawaii and New England, according to the U.S.
Winter Outlook, issued this week by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

 

While drought may improve in some portions of the U.S. this winter,
California's record-setting drought will likely persist or intensify in
large parts of the state. Nearly 60 percent of California is suffering from
exceptional drought – the worst category – with 2013 being the driest year
on record.

 

Also, 2012 and 2013 rank in the top 10 of California’s warmest years on
record, and 2014 is shaping up to be California’s warmest year on record.

 

Winter is the wet season in California, so mountainous snowfall will prove
crucial for drought recovery. Drought is expected to improve in California’s
southern and northwestern regions, but improvement is not expected until
December or January.

 

“Complete drought recovery in California this winter is highly unlikely.
While we’re predicting at least a 2 in 3 chance that winter precipitation
will be near or above normal throughout the state, with such widespread,
extreme deficits, recovery will be slow,” said Mike Halpert, acting director
of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “This outlook gives the public valuable
information, allowing them to make informed decisions and plans for the
season. It's an important tool as we build a Weather-Ready Nation.”

 

El Niño, an ocean-atmospheric phenomenon in the Tropical Pacific that
affects global weather patterns, may still develop this winter.

 

Climate Prediction Center forecasters announced on Oct. 9 that the ocean and
atmospheric coupling necessary to declare an El Niño has not yet happened,
so they continued the El Niño Watch with a 67 percent chance of development
by the end of the year.

 

While strong El Niño episodes often pull more moisture into California over
the winter months, this El Niño is expected to be weak, offering little
help.

 

The Precipitation Outlook favors above-average precipitation across the
southern tier, from the southern half of California, across the Southwest,
South-central, and Gulf Coast states, Florida, and along the eastern
seaboard to Maine. Above-average precipitation also is favored in southern
Alaska and the Alaskan panhandle.

 

Below-average precipitation is favored in Hawaii, the Pacific Northwest and
the Midwest.

 

Last year’s winter was exceptionally cold and snowy across most of the
United States, east of the Rockies. A repeat of this extreme pattern is
unlikely this year, although the Outlook does favor below-average
temperatures in the south-central and southeastern states.

 

In addition, the Temperature Outlook favors warmer-than-average temperatures
in the Western U.S., extending from the west coast through most of the
inter-mountain west and across the U.S.-Canadian border through New York and
New England, as well as Alaska and Hawaii.

 

The rest of the country falls into the “equal chance” category, meaning that
there is not a strong enough climate signal for these areas to make a
prediction, so they have an equal chance for above-, near-, or below-normal
temperatures and/or precipitation.

 

The U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook, updated this week and valid through
January, predicts drought removal or improvement in portions of California,
the Central and Southern Plains, the desert Southwest, and portions of New
York, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Massachusetts. 

 

Drought is likely to persist or intensify in portions of California, Nevada,
Utah, Idaho, Oregon and Washington state.

 

New drought development is likely in northeast Oregon, eastern Washington
state, and small portions of Idaho and western Montana.

 

This seasonal outlook does not project where and when snowstorms may hit or
provide total seasonal snowfall accumulations. Snow forecasts are dependent
upon the strength and track of winter storms, which are generally not
predictable more than a week in advance.

 

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